truetradero

PRO
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About me MBA, CFA and CMT. Equity trader and former consultants in technical analysis specialized in Elliot Waves theory.
Joined Montreal, Qc, Canada
Markets Allocation
33 % stocks 26 % indices 10 % commodities 31 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
INDU 10% | 4 CL1! 7% | 3 XLF 5% | 2 NASX 5% | 2
truetradero truetradero PRO NASX, M, Short ,
NASX: Are we seeing the top of the Nasdaq Composite...?
21 0 2
NASX, M Short
Are we seeing the top of the Nasdaq Composite...?

C=A + 1 = 5 + top of channels = TOP ?

truetradero truetradero PRO AMZN, W, Short ,
AMZN: Amazon (AMZN) looking tired, good risk-reward on the short side.
101 0 1
AMZN, W Short
Amazon (AMZN) looking tired, good risk-reward on the short side.

Amazon is completing a toppish ascending wedge on declining volume and momentum. The stock has completed a 5 impulsive Elliot waves count and reached some important long term Fibonacci targets. Minimum downside potential to the 23.6% retracement near the trendline linking the lows since 2014, around $600. A break below $755 would increase our confidence for more ...

truetradero truetradero PRO NOC, M, Short ,
NOC: Short NOC (and the defense industry in general)
43 0 2
NOC, M Short
Short NOC (and the defense industry in general)

The whole Defense industry is extremely overbought in all time frames, even in monthly. Stocks are reaching important long term Fibo projections. NOC is making no exception, showing RSI bearish divergence and declining volume in parabolic rise. % waves completed, has reached the top of its risisng channel. Excellent risk/reward on the short side, target near ...

truetradero truetradero PRO NOC, M, Short ,
NOC: Short NOC (and the Defense sector in general)
11 0 1
NOC, M Short
Short NOC (and the Defense sector in general)

The whole Defense industry is extremely overbought in all time frames, even in monthly. Stocks are reaching important long term Fibo projections. NOC is making no exception, showing RSI bearish divergence and declining volume in parabolic rise. Excellent risk/reward on the short side, target near $167, even $135 possibly.

truetradero truetradero PRO MCD, M, Short ,
MCD: McDonalds at key resistance, expecting a correction
45 0 0
MCD, M Short
McDonalds at key resistance, expecting a correction

MCD is at its Elliott Waves monthly time frame target in the $132 area. 5 waves completed RSI14 is showing bearish divergence. MCD is testing the upper band of its rising channel. $132 area is corresponding to the 1.5x the height of its previous channel projected on its breakout point in 2008. Minimum target in the $101 area, then possibly $82.

truetradero truetradero PRO XLU, D, Short ,
XLU: Utilities (XLU) are toppish, correction expected.
36 0 2
XLU, D Short
Utilities (XLU) are toppish, correction expected.

The XLU has recentlly reached it's high of early 2015 near $50 which seems to offer strong resistance. A double top seems to be in process. Elliott waves count of 5 waves is completed, a correction seems to have started towards the $46.70/$45.35 area, The wave III should just have started, a fast drop is expected. RSI (5) and MACD are showing beairhs divergence ...

truetradero truetradero PRO USDCAD, D, Long ,
USDCAD: USDCAD at key support, rebound expected
176 0 4
USDCAD, D Long
USDCAD at key support, rebound expected

USDCAD reached key support near 1.29. A rise from here is expected for a wave 5 that would eventually could bring the pair to the 1.60 area. A break above 1.3650 would give credit to this scenario while a break below 1.290 would weaken it significantly if not completely. This corresponds with crude oil that reached important resistance in the $40 area and should ...

truetradero truetradero PRO XOP/XLE, 60, Short ,
XOP/XLE: XOP/XLE
39 0 1
XOP/XLE, 60 Short
XOP/XLE

A 5 waves impulsive up movement seems to have been completed on the raito of XOP/XLE. A pullback is expected soon. A break above 0.49 would invalidate this view.

truetradero truetradero PRO CL1!, 240, Short ,
CL1!: Crude oil g toppish, losing momentum, near importance resistance
500 2 9
CL1!, 240 Short
Crude oil g toppish, losing momentum, near importance resistance

Toppish wedge pattern, near long term trend resistance. Key support at $34.20, broken opens min $31.75. Standard taget between $29.65 and $28.20.

truetradero truetradero PRO CL1!, 60, Long ,
CL1!: Elliot waves count suggest more upside coming to crude oil
279 1 3
CL1!, 60 Long
Elliot waves count suggest more upside coming to crude oil

Crude oil seems to have completed a wave (2) or (b), possible impulsive wave (3) or (c) coming as long as $26.74 holds. Target min at $35, max $39.

truetradero truetradero PRO EWC, W, Long ,
EWC: EWC on long term support, rebound expected
25 0 1
EWC, W Long
EWC on long term support, rebound expected

EWC is oversold and at key support. Excepting a rebound.

truetradero truetradero PRO CL1!, W, Long ,
CL1!: Crude oil near important supports area (between $33 and $27.65)
155 0 3
CL1!, W Long
Crude oil near important supports area (between $33 and $27.65)

Crude is reaching important Fibonacci projections, at important graphical support. USDCAD near key resistance around 1.4250 while copper is at important monthly support on trendline linking the lows near $1.95/$2.00. The whole commodity complex seems due for at least an important rebound, at least the risk/reward is starting to be interesting.

truetradero truetradero PRO MA, W, Short ,
MA: Mastercard reached it's wave 5 target, correction has started
37 0 1
MA, W Short
Mastercard reached it's wave 5 target, correction has started

Mastercard seems to have completed a 5 waves rise since 2006. Therefore we are expecting a 3 waves process correction over the next few months or years starting with a wave A with a target around $79. *Disclosure: I am short MA at the moment of this publication. This is only an idea and shouldn't be taken as an investment advice.

truetradero truetradero PRO DXY, M,
DXY: US dollar index remains bullish as long as 96.70 holds.
32 1 1
DXY, M
US dollar index remains bullish as long as 96.70 holds.

US dollar index remains bullish as long as 96.70 holds. Target at the top of the channel near 108/110.

truetradero truetradero PRO GOOGL, W, Short ,
GOOGL: Google (Alphabet) approaching Elliott waves target near $815
54 0 1
GOOGL, W Short
Google (Alphabet) approaching Elliott waves target near $815

Alphabet is approaching its Elliott wave 5 target of $815. The stock is highly overbought, far away from its 52-week moving average and showing bearish divergence on its 21-week RSI. Expecting a pullback over the following months towards $630 at minimum, max $520. A weekly break above $850 would invalidate this view.

truetradero truetradero PRO SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: S&P500 at key resistance, expecting a pullback here
384 1 4
SPY, D Short
S&P500 at key resistance, expecting a pullback here

The S&P500 is at key graphical resistance (line linking the tops) and standard Elliott Waves targets. RSI-14 Daily is at resistance also. A break below the line linking the lows since August would validate the bearish count towards the 175 area on SPY. A daily close above 207.35 would invalidate this view.

truetradero truetradero PRO USDCAD, W, Short ,
USDCAD: USD/CAD at key resistance, pullback expected
34 0 1
USDCAD, W Short
USD/CAD at key resistance, pullback expected

USDCAD at key resistance. 5 waves up movement near completion. Expecting a pullback towards 1.25 first then 1.20.

truetradero truetradero PRO XLF/XLY, W, Long ,
XLF/XLY: Ratio of XLF/XLY at key support, expecting a rise
25 0 0
XLF/XLY, W Long
Ratio of XLF/XLY at key support, expecting a rise

Ratio of XLF/XLY is at important Fibonacci projection level Has potentially bottomed, good upside potential. Indirect way to play a possible rise in interest rates. Key support at 0.30, a break below would invalidate this view. Bullish divergence on RSI-21 week.

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