About meI am a passionate engineer, mostly because of math and physics, the two most easiest things to handle for me. Equations and Code if done correct, will not lie. I do not treat Trading as a business. It more like a moneymaking hobby.
This is a commodity (oil) and Bank (XLF) driven etf. Although its Brazil, and their Covid Scenario is not good.
Build the position similar to BABA.
If you want me to check your position and explain. Post a response. I will let you know how you can tweek it.
This can be another $BABA Trade. Has all the signs for it.
The smartest move here is to take the trade - non directional bias. Follow how I constructed $BABA
IVP is 30%, but the HVP is 40% - Comparing them both, we can expect both to converge. That would mean, Either it consolidates for 1 full month (like the GDX trades I posted) or it moves like BABA....
Watching for a break about 166. The profit potential with Low IV is sweet. You can just go outright and buy a call.
IVP - 10%, shows how no one wants to decapitate the risk here. The market is expecting no risk in Bonds. Is it true?
1. IVP - 11%
2. IV - 29%
The breakout can be significant.
The options are a bit manipulated. So, build your position accordingly.
Buy the Volatility here. Spreads such as Back Ratio Spread, Buying Iron Condor / Iron Fly.
Below is an example.
For less experienced trader
BUY +1 IRON CONDOR CVS 100 (Weeklys) 11 SEP 20 65.5/69.5/65.5/61.5...
SELL -1 IRON CONDOR BYND 100 (Weeklys) 7 AUG 20 130/140/130/120 CALL/PUT @8.32 LMT
In this case I want to sell the Iron Condor.
1. IVP - 47%
2. IV earnings is - 158%
3. Normal IV - 70-80%
4. R/R = $173 Risk to $322 Reward
Trade done for a hefty $832 credit, on a $1000 wide contract.
ALL you need is tomorrow this should open between 120 - 140. If it doesn't...
Working on a new Strategy to take advantage of earnings. This is how its structured to play.
Knowing your risk and keeping your expectations low gives you a sizable profit.
GET OUT OF CONVENTIONAL THINKING of Iron Condors and Iron Butterfly prior to earnings. The whole world thinks that is the edge.
Now, try to do yourself a trade on $UAA $CHTR $XOM $SHAK
$YY - If You are not disciplined, Guaranteed Loser market.
1. Options Liquidity
2. MM manipulating Options Market
3. Staying in the trader and TAKING HEAT.
The story is 07/09 I entered a debit spread as it checked out all my criteria for UCS#1 Long Trade.
$2 Wide Spread for $0.95 (Thanks to Skew)
On 7/16 - The Short side lost 75% of its credit, so Closed it...
Pre/Post Earning Play.
I cannot digest that $Snap is a 40B Market Cap, Its not my business. But the short interest on SNAP and IRBT caught my eyes among others.
A simple bet, if the earnings push these higher beyond expectactions, a Run for the money is imminent.
XRT - Retail Sector (Non Market Cap Weighted)
XLF - Financial Sector (Market Cap Weighted)
XME - Mining Index (Non Market Cap Weighted - US Miners only)
IWM - Small Cap (Non Tech Giants)
First The critical levels shown on Right Charts are something to be very mindful off.
The Product must hold support for the SPX to move higher. But a Crash in the SPX market...
BUY +1 IRON CONDOR BABA 100 (Weeklys) 10 JUL 20 220/225/210/205 CALL/PUT @2.47 LMT
Lets look at the R/R
1. BABA is smack at 215 - You lose about $250 max - Risk mitigation close it 4 days before the trade mature.
2. BABA moves past 223 - You are profitable on the Long Side
3. BABA moves past 207 - You are profitable on the short side
Max Profit - $250
The levels to watch for in KR.
34.50 is a heavy resistance, technically. So a pullback to $32.00 is still highly probable after a break below 33.80.
A break above 34.50 is a quick rally up to the next level. Then it will coil up for a while and get smack down really hard, if the momentum doesnt build.
Where is the money coming from? I think,
The market rally is backed by FEDs and their enormous pocket (printing press). Showing who is in control.
1. Money is flooding into markets Equity, Bonds, Commodity. It is not traders or market makers money in the equity. Its the FED press money .
1a. Commodity is where risk averse and foreign money is heading for safe...
Nice Pop on all the Bullish Trades I had.
No matter what I think and how Bullish the market pretend to be. TLT is Tilted too steep too quickly. I want a piece of this to the Long Side. The best way to catch a falling knife is with GLOVES. Thats what Back Spread Does.
All these are for a short term long exposure. GDX has sold off significantly.
Ofcourse, if you are long GDX, you are betting against the market. So, do not treat this as a position trade, But like a hedge. What do I mean. If you are long a bunch of spread in the Equity sector, You can hedge them by getting spreads on Gold and Bonds.
Building an exposure here...