Traded through Feb lows and closed there yesterday. Bulls need a trade back up and through 2530 today, Bears want below 2742. Vix holding steady (no panic - yet). Big picture has major resistance at 2720 and major support, wait for it, 2100 area. I need a vacation!
The VIX ascent in February was larger than this December move to date. Either we have not had a capitulation in the S&P 500 yet, or there is a tapering in volatility premium defining a finishing corrective move. It seems tomorrows Fed announcement will tell us all we need to know. Either a continuation down, or end of year bounce.
Bulls will attempt to ride an inverse head & shoulders pattern this morning. Morning gaps have been smacked in the face. While directional players have been grabbing the Dramamine, the option sellers are hoping for a little Vol crush from Santa.
This washing machine action has me backing out to a weekly. Unless we get a massive up move to finish this week off (which I wouldn't find the least bit surprising) we will get our first weekly candle of trade cleanly below the logarithmic uptrend line going back to 2009.
Nothing like a 60 point rip to tear into bearish sentiment. Next hurdle is right here at the closing levels. The type of buying pressure today doesn't lead me to believe this is a big hook. However, the larger Macro back drop needs to be considered.....growth or inflation will be needed to take this market to new highs.....do we have either of the two? My...
Long term trend line, representing 9 years of a bull run, holding up against tougher economic conditions, tough Q1 2019 comps and an extremely brutal tape (every bounce being sold). All leads to an extreme pivot point. Be nimble!