Here is the bigger view of the previous detailed post. Although bullish for only another day or two, we'll begin to get very bearish. Notice after the expected completion of the blue Cypher pattern, that the large drop down should see the 275 - and lower is expected!
This morning provided a very nice and profitable pop. The sell zone worked nicely for us near todays highs. After dropping quite a bit, I tried to buy the call options at the lows, but just watched the market crumble 2 times on me. It seemed like every time after the buy, the the initial bounce just bleed off lower than than the buy point. That forced the "sell...
After the market collapse in Dec, this stock has finished a huge ABC corrective pattern over the past few years. It has been throwing off high yields. If price pulls back down to the buy line (green) the yield will be over 14%! If the Bat Pattern holds true, we could expect a nice $6 move up towards $17/ share or approximately 55% capital appreciation also I'm...
Last week we talked about the potential for 1 more push higher and then the Bear market would resume. We got a brief push up after the FED Speak. However the drop after the 21st happened quickly and left us slightly short of the lofty targets mentioned before. The day on the opening gap was lower, and triggered sell order for the call options. Market has continued...
Here's another update. The Blue Bat pattern proposed months ago, has worked out nicely. The completion should mark the turning point point now. We should expect a pullback down into the green zone. I have (for fun) put up a Bat Pattern (purple) for this retracement. It should be a small pattern. Please remember I am only guessing what form the market will give...
This chart is the update to the last one describing the triangle identified (yellow) 2 days ago. Today the market reversed up strongly, yet BA (Boeing) dropped! Now that we see the breakdown of the triangle, we can begin to short, buy puts, look to the downside. Please note the comments inside the chart showing the timing of events and the related stock...
Bat, Butterfly, Crab? everywhere! Wow! what a great reversal day! Started with a gap down and totally reversed up! If harmonics are still playing out nice for us, we are about to approach a butterfly completion (yellow) soon. I like the area just above it in the sell zone... might be a bit greedy, but that would complete a small wave 5 (pink) of 3 up (blue). This...
Target reached on pullback. Lets see if FED surprise works or not. Old Fart (me) is still looking for 1 more try at the Pesky Gap! mentioned before. Lets see if this FED news lets the market rally up to the Pesky Gap! above and completes 5 waves, Crab pattern, and the larger Shark pattern. I bought (50) SPY April 280 calls for $4.75... We should soon see the...
Today is an update from last weeks thoughts. Spy looks to be on track towards the Pesky Gap! set back on October 10 2018. This was a major drop on the open, and of course gaped down strongly. When we see a move like that, the high of the gap day candle usually provides a strong resistance on the retracement back up such as what we are seeing here in March 2019. We...
Detail of previous chart posted. Pesky Gap! lines up with the completion of the Shark Pattern...AND WAVE 2 of the Bear Market! Lets see if it turns around the Spring Equinox (March 20-21) Well, "Nurse Diesel" is sending the men in the white coats after me, so I better get going before they catch me... Have fun! Old Fart
Well, it's been a while since the last post. "Nurse Diesel" has been keeping me (Old Fart) locked down in the Psych Ward! Last post, was watching the bouncing price on top of the midline of the black channel. As the colors changed from green to yellow to red, we were on alert for a break down. Sure enough the price broke down below the line as we identified the...
Today has yet again "tested" the "Magical Black support Line" from Feb 6 2018. Today is also a timing "turn date" (+/- 1 day). It's interesting that the ratios of 2 different scaled (purple and black) Cypher Patterns actually line up here. It also looks like the finish of a "3 Drive Pattern" down from the Dec 24 highs. I have been bearish on the market since...
Here is the closer view of the slowing momentum of the market. We are patiently waiting for the break of the lower black channel... we're getting close! Looks like we're in the 5th of the 5th of C of B up since Dec 24 low
Since the bull market started in 2009, the Red Line Channel has held as support. However in Dec 2018 the lower support channel was broken! Support obviously failed with the huge Dec sell off. Since the Christmas 2018 lows, the market has moved up strongly. Now, Many traders have become extremely bullish. Eyes on 3000+ SPX now. Blogs and tweets, and professional...
Old Fart Plan for the next few days. I will sell my puts at The target of 266.6. This is the Deep crab target zone. Also it would let the price action retest the old resistance line from the Oct-Dec highs in a "throwback" pattern. If the bear is starting again, then a bounce to the sell zone should be next. I'll buy some calls for this move up and then once in the...
Today was an impressive break of the down slope channel since December. Bears finally came out and "tasted" the picnic baskets today. The VXXB lows held nicely after the 2nd chance to buy the lows, as previously talked about, were again hit yesterday. We saw an impressive move up in VXXB today. (market dropped) The potential for a small Bat pattern (grey) could...
Long Term play is a Gartley Pattern for the next year or so. The point B hit the .618 area in December, indicating we should now see a long corrective grind up to B (pink/yellow) label. Then continue lower in the long term time frame. But at this time we are looking for a nice retracement up. This should be a choppy upwards retracement of the huge sell off from...
Yesterday the VXXB took off to the upside, but we were careful to look for the 2 nd chance Buy Zone targets as shown. The timing took longer than drawn yesterday, but the price3 hit the buy zone nicely. If the Bears are to take control, it is important for the lows to hold near the Buy Zone. A break below the (black) dashed line voids the pattern count. If the...