this count suggests we are near the end. i have more bearish ones but i like this one the based with fib ratios. although the 4th macro wave only retraced .236, coincidencing with very bearish outlook. would prefer to see that one retraced a bit more but oh well.
-truncated 5th in A wave makes sense, takes care of the problem that the entire push down to $6k cannot be an A wave (due to significant 1/4 overlap)
-we are NOT correcting the entire move from the 2015 bottom, but the elliott wave cycle started in 2017
(see michaelvandepoppe full EW count in 2017 as completed 1 and 3 waves)
The idea is simple. look for key moment in a chart where large consolidation is coming to a head.
most recently we had this occur.
multi month triangle coming to a head.
thinking we would break out of the consolidating triangle and ignite a new bull run.
3 apparent higher lows on the daily.
fundamentals getting stronger every day
bard garlinghouse took to the media circuit to predict that altcoins would break the btc correlation soon, "when markets become more rational". Chances are xrp has realized btc will dump to new lows and their USD chart would almost certainly break the high of 40ish cents from wave 1.
i'd recommend shorting btc or eth or ltc or anything them.
but if you wanted a...
even steve puri bears must admit this is the most bullish chart in crypto.
above all key moving averages
massive ascending triangle
tons of consolidation on macd and RSI, room for massive move upside
blue sky breakout could be 5x-10x
IF BTC BREAKS BEARISH
weak pump above .02, BNB <$25
IF BTC breaks bullish
easily $100+ BNB, possibly $200
So qtum's biggest move of 2017 came when the RSI absolutely hit rock bottom. An abysmal low 13 on the 4 hour and 16 on the daily.
Fortune favors the brave, however, and QTUM rocketed to new highs.
what can we learn from this?
1) don't buy until it REALLY hits bottom. i don't care if you haven't seen a daily RSI below 18 before. get ready to see one.
If bullish, we bounce near 50 MA.
if bearish, we end up down at 100 MA.
I'm leaning bullish...50 MA plus trend line support plus log chart bull flag.
even still, I'm expecting at least 2 months of range trading between 13k and 7k, some of which has already begun.
please keep in mind at these time frames you can pierce right through these averages, as evidenced...
We all know market makers and whales are playing with us during these low volume plays.
The Market Manipulation if they are planning to go bullish
Purposefully ambiguous wave 1. Virtually no standard pullbacks. Make people wonder is this corrective or impulsive?
-this ambiguity leads to people incorrectly thinking the fall from 11.6k to 9.3k was a wave 4...
Symmetrical triangle, continuation pattern.
It allows things like the daily and weekly moving averages set up new floors for the price. This will be MUCH better, IMO, than us just rocketing off beyond 20k in the next month.
since we can see the 200 day MA creeping up rather quickly at 8600 currently, and we know for a bullish situation we need to be above the...
BTC is holding everyone back.
Once the Stoch RSI gets moving towards the other side, there is no guarantee it makes it. But follow the consistency across the top cryptos.
We are close.
predictably leading the pack
The weakest for...
Everything is tied to bitcoin, so after we consider the two options, we will consider the likely scenario of how these could play out.
Option 1: EW preserved, we never close a daily candle below 3000 satoshi.
wave 5 can take off when FA gives it a boost. (Fairx ?)
Now, the 3 likely BTC scenarios
1) btc crashes to make LL that $6k.