I am a big believer that markets are patterned in term of price and time. I use Elliott waves but I don't label everything. Waste of time as the probability of being right are low most of the time. That being said, I do look for charts sporting the right look. In other words, high probability wave counts and right now if there's one chart flashing a very...
Here is another chart sporting a compelling story. A bullish one that is. As my other recent posts, the Dow Jones US Airlines seems to indicate there's still life in this bull market. From its high of early 2015, the index decline in pretty much a textbook flat i.e. an ABC with wave B trying to kiss the high. Then we have near equality between A and C. Another...
Disney is another stock that not only sports a nice Elliott pattern, and in this case a simple ZigZag, but also seems to tell us that current bearishness in the stock market could be over opening the door for a nice rally as the next move of consequence. It appears the huge advance from the 2009 low needs at least another upleg before being completed. From recent...
From its 2015 high, UPS declined in a textbook Elliott pattern. We label that decline as a simple ZigZag and as usual either it is all of a correction or part of it. Either way, UPS will eventually make new high and for the coming weeks UPS should go up at least in 3 waves. That view will hold as long this year low is not breached. Markets are patterned but the...
Oil went below 40$ in August for the first time since early 2009. It did try to mount a rally to no avail before collapsing to 26$. During this time Chevron never made new low. That is a call a divergence, a major divergence that is and that is a bullish sign. Furthermore, since its August low, CVX printed a nice impulse ( the trend ). The ensuing move looks...
WFC seems to tell us that the big scare was actually just a correction within a bull market. The right look suggests WFC is on its way to new high. We even have the rule of alternation with wave 2 being an expanded flat while wave 4 is a simple ZigZag. The only thing I don't like is within the zigzag both wave are sharp. Usually one is a surprise to everybody...
Last week while the world was coming to an end, PG held its head above the water. We see that as a bullish sign. So we took a look at the chart and PG still sports a compelling story using the Elliott Wave Principle. First it appears the decline from 94 was only 3 waves down a counter trend move while the current advance from recent low @ 65 sure looks impulsive....
It appears the suspected decline is underway AND it looks impulsive suggesting it is not over yet. Maybe for the short term but it looks like we are in for a couple of weeks of weakness and if we are correct, we would need at minimum an ABC down to complete a corrective decline of some sort before another serious wave of buying emerges. For the very short term...
The Russell 2000 shows a compelling picture suggesting some kind of decline has started. Just don't know the intensity. Using the wave principle, from May 2014 down to the October low, we do have a clear cut ABC and that was telling us to expect a rally which indeed we got. Now that rally appears over AND stalled at the point were a potential wave B wave equals...
The triangle scenario is still alive. On my last update I was a bit sloppy in saying that a move below 164 would negate the triangle scenario while actually the resistance was at the previous low @ 163.50. It is holding thus keeping the triangle alive. Today's news could be all or part of wave D but the bottom line is as long 163.50 holds, FDX is moving...
Applying the Wave Principle on the Global S&P 500 Cash index one can see it would look better with one more down leg to end the wave that started at 2115. That would be part of something. Maybe a ZigZag, maybe not. Markets are patterned but labels come after not before ...... I am showing a potential ZigZag down and yes if the market does print another leg down...
If you look at our chart of monthly FDX, the big picture hasn't changed, long term the rally is not over and once current correction is done, FDX will move back above 184. I just don't know now if the sideways action is still a bullish triangle or a bearish one. Both are possibles. Corrections are complex patterns. As long 166 holds, the current labeling holds...
PG just keep unfolding as expected. Sure wish it would always be that clear. Actually it is very rare that a stock shows that nice of a pattern. Anyway we are in a corrective rally and the only thing I am confident about is it is not over yet. Even if the rally of past couple of weeks stopped right at the apex of a contracting triangle ( wave iv ) a common...
The R2K as many other indices just keep plowing ahead and I don't have any clear view for the next week or so. Long term I am still bullish but for the very short term I think the markets will pullback a bit before resuming their crawling ascent. Current market action is fishy. Be careful. As long R2K stays within the channel, that would be the best way to see...
Here what I think the market is telling us: 1-The decline from early March high is over or close to. I am showing you IWM and QQQ with two different short term scenarios because both are possible but a good rally that will bring IWM to new high is in the card. On the other hand QQQ will not move above its recent high. A sucker rally that will be. 2-Once the...
The weakness we got from the high does look impulsive suggesting that is the trend for now and once this corrective rally is over, we should see another leg down. But I don't think the corrective rally is over, the first leg from recent low might be. as we are butting against the 38.2% retracement and chart resistance at 2070 with the Slow Stochastic ( 13, 5 )...
Since last update, FDX went lower without negating its bullish triangle and now we think it is over. Moving above the upper trendline will confirm that scenario. Target will be published once we get above that resistance. Although not expected, moving below 170 will mean a bit more weakness towards 160 before moving back up as shown in the monthly chart linked...
Even if I am still somewhat bearish on the overall equity market, I have to move to neutral on PG as it has reached minimum expectation. It is hard to say if the last wave of the decline from all time high is over. Much more a matter of opinion thus I am taking my chips off the table on PG. If bears are not done pounding the stock, ideal target is around 77-78 and...