Two scenarios. The question is, did Bitcoin already finish its ABC correction, or did it only finish B right now and will go up to 7300-7500?
As of yet it didn't even reach 0.236 fib level of the previous impulse wave down... so if that was the whole bounce, than that's a very bearish sign.
BTC hit exactly the 2.618 fib extension of wave 1-2 (and also 0.886 of 6k-11.7k), now it's bounce time.
2 questions to ask ourselves:
If we just finished subwave A of wave C inside the main ABC formation (from 11.7k), then are we in wave B now? If yes, then we will see a 3 wave structure probably retracing to the 0.382-0.5 fib level (7500-7900, green box), then...
Counting Elliott waves. What I don't know is whether that ABCDE formation is wave 4 of the larger scale EW (main count, and we it goes up from here), or just the wave 4 of wave 3 inside that "main" EW.
I'll update the idea with the second scenario in a moment!
Bearish scenario: It looks like we are in an ABCDE formation (we will have to look for the 3 wave zig zag patterns in the near future inside C, D, E).
Since these only appear in wave 4 of an impulse wave, or in wave B of an ABC, we have to consider the possibility, that an ending C corrective wave will come.
Taking a 100% fib extension from wave A and B we get a...
So we know that the obvious bear flag broke down and we should expect sub 7000 prices.
This seems to be true, because if we draw the Elliott waves after the bear flag's ABC, we see that wave 3, that just finished, hit the 1.618 fib extension level of wave 1-2. I expect a retracement to around 8500-8600 for wave 4, then the last leg, wave 5 will probably hit 6600,...