Let's have a check list and see what and how is changing in Price action.
Daily:
- Last three days show undecision, bullish momentum dropped further. Heikin Ashi candles turn red, haDelta slowly decreasing below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- As a new signal MACD is about to give a warning signal, we may see a bearish cross attempt soon. However we still can not exclude similar Price action to the one that happened in late November-early December. Back then Price made a minor swing down below Tenkan Sen, but the first dip was bought. The selling accelerated only later, when Kijun Sen got higher too. The case is a bit similar now. Tenkan Sen at 2102 acts as first minor support, but Kijun is still lower. Anyway, there is a bearish divergence developing in this market, and chance of a pull back is increasing.
4H:
- Price has been moving sideaway for almost a week now. Kumo has been getting thinner below Price as volatility is decreasing. The support level is clear at 2100, there we have 100 WMA, forward Senkou B line, and Chikou horizontal level too.
- ADX is still decreasing, with mixed DMI signals.
- Heikin Ashi candles are mixed, haDelta swinging just around zero line, while the oscillator has been bearish for a while (negative divergence)
I think a correction is really close now. The only thing that keeps SP500 levitating is the extremely euphoric bullish Price action in European equities, which sends European Indexes all over the roof. A chill down will eventually happen in Europe too, and then SP500 as a relatively weaker index will do its round down.
For short entry watch 2100! Lower daily supports and corrective tgts are: 2075-2080 and 2055-2060.
p.s.: There is again an interesting phenomenon in VIX futures. Market is so confidently bullish, that March VIX is trading -155 points below April VIX futures, while there is still around 3 weeks left until March VIX maturity. It is very rare to see this kind of low volatility Pricing, and this very wide spread between the two front VIX contracts. So this can be a good trade opportunity as well to play correction: buy VIX March vs Selling VIX April. Given the technical picture, the downside on further spread widenning is limited, while in case of a quick correction the spread can tighten back towards -50 or 0.
Daily:
- Last three days show undecision, bullish momentum dropped further. Heikin Ashi candles turn red, haDelta slowly decreasing below zero line. Oscillator turns bearish
- As a new signal MACD is about to give a warning signal, we may see a bearish cross attempt soon. However we still can not exclude similar Price action to the one that happened in late November-early December. Back then Price made a minor swing down below Tenkan Sen, but the first dip was bought. The selling accelerated only later, when Kijun Sen got higher too. The case is a bit similar now. Tenkan Sen at 2102 acts as first minor support, but Kijun is still lower. Anyway, there is a bearish divergence developing in this market, and chance of a pull back is increasing.
4H:
- Price has been moving sideaway for almost a week now. Kumo has been getting thinner below Price as volatility is decreasing. The support level is clear at 2100, there we have 100 WMA, forward Senkou B line, and Chikou horizontal level too.
- ADX is still decreasing, with mixed DMI signals.
- Heikin Ashi candles are mixed, haDelta swinging just around zero line, while the oscillator has been bearish for a while (negative divergence)
I think a correction is really close now. The only thing that keeps SP500 levitating is the extremely euphoric bullish Price action in European equities, which sends European Indexes all over the roof. A chill down will eventually happen in Europe too, and then SP500 as a relatively weaker index will do its round down.
For short entry watch 2100! Lower daily supports and corrective tgts are: 2075-2080 and 2055-2060.
p.s.: There is again an interesting phenomenon in VIX futures. Market is so confidently bullish, that March VIX is trading -155 points below April VIX futures, while there is still around 3 weeks left until March VIX maturity. It is very rare to see this kind of low volatility Pricing, and this very wide spread between the two front VIX contracts. So this can be a good trade opportunity as well to play correction: buy VIX March vs Selling VIX April. Given the technical picture, the downside on further spread widenning is limited, while in case of a quick correction the spread can tighten back towards -50 or 0.
