BITCOIN How have Triangles traded since March? Is $11500 next?

Bitcoin has been trading within a Triangle on the 4H chart with the MA50 as the Pivot. Typically this is an accumulation phase, as also seen by the ranging RSI and LMACD indicators. The current Triangle is close to its exhaustion phase, so we should be expecting a break-out soon.

The purpose of this quick idea is to see how Triangle patterns on BTC have traded since the collapse in March.

1) The most recent one broke to the upside on August 17 and after a +3.50% rise, it posted the current 2020 High (12500).


2) The July Triangle broke to the upside on July 21, posting an incredible +30% rise that finally broke the multi-month 10500 Resistance and restored the long-term bullish trend.


3) The one before that broke to the upside on June 01 posting a respectable +7.40% rise that got rejected on the multi-month 10500 Resistance mentioned above.


4) The April Triangle broke to the upside on on April 23, posting also a +7.40% rise.


5) The March Triangle broke to the upside on April 01, posting a rise around the same levels (+8.85%).


6) Finally, the first Triangle after the March price collapse, broke to the upside on March 19, posting an incredible +30% rise.



It is obvious that in the past 7 months, every Bitcoin Triangle broke to the upside: 2 events achieved a +30% High, 3 roughly 8% and 1 3.50%, which was the most recent and was that low due as shortly after Bitcoin followed the stock market drop on worries regarding the pace of the economic recovery.

Based on the above, once the current Triangle breaks, there are high chances to expect at least a +3.50% rise, which places the projected High around $11500 (near the September 19 High). As seen on the chart, the current Triangle typically tests the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone, before rising to its Lower High zone.

What rise are you expecting? +3.50% or more? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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