What is going on here? Where is the fear?
Each time we go down, fear rears its head as people sell their stocks and drive up the price of put options, which drives up the value of VIXY.
The last selloff was "BARELY ANY FEAR" as noted in the small rise in VIXY into mid-March on the last decline.
This time there is barely any noticeable lift in VIXY to show that people are either hedging by buying puts or panicking in any way whatsoever. THIS TIME IT IS A MAJOR SIGNAL THAT I WOULD NOT IGNORE.
I don't think many signals like this come along in a period of many years. So, even if I am wrong and the market shoots up from here, I don't want to miss this signal. This is DANGER DANGER DANGER right here.
Danger, that is, if you want the market to go up. This is a great signal to go short. One of the best signals.
We are looking ahead at the end of the quarter and probably every fund is already invested up to their gills to show for quarter-end, but maybe, just maybe, they have held onto some cash for marking up their portfolios into quarter end. That is the only hope though, based on what is going on here.
I may sound confident in this setup because I am. I just want you to do your own research too and look into these setups and see how much you need to hedge and just exactly where to place your stops and when to know when this pattern isn't panning out.
Each day I will do my best to update this chart an show you what the market is telling us to do. Message me - reply to this chart - and I will see how take advantage of this very bearish setup that is in place right here.
All the best,
Tim 1:21PM EST March 25, 2015 206.59 last SPY
Each time we go down, fear rears its head as people sell their stocks and drive up the price of put options, which drives up the value of VIXY.
The last selloff was "BARELY ANY FEAR" as noted in the small rise in VIXY into mid-March on the last decline.
This time there is barely any noticeable lift in VIXY to show that people are either hedging by buying puts or panicking in any way whatsoever. THIS TIME IT IS A MAJOR SIGNAL THAT I WOULD NOT IGNORE.
I don't think many signals like this come along in a period of many years. So, even if I am wrong and the market shoots up from here, I don't want to miss this signal. This is DANGER DANGER DANGER right here.
Danger, that is, if you want the market to go up. This is a great signal to go short. One of the best signals.
We are looking ahead at the end of the quarter and probably every fund is already invested up to their gills to show for quarter-end, but maybe, just maybe, they have held onto some cash for marking up their portfolios into quarter end. That is the only hope though, based on what is going on here.
I may sound confident in this setup because I am. I just want you to do your own research too and look into these setups and see how much you need to hedge and just exactly where to place your stops and when to know when this pattern isn't panning out.
Each day I will do my best to update this chart an show you what the market is telling us to do. Message me - reply to this chart - and I will see how take advantage of this very bearish setup that is in place right here.
All the best,
Tim 1:21PM EST March 25, 2015 206.59 last SPY
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