closed longs here. looking ripe for a pullback. bear divs, rising wedge inside a rising wedge, and the fact that we are super overbought even on the weekly and the monthly is getting there, but that could continue for months.
let me be clear, though. i dont think we get a full on correction yet. this wedge looks bearish but so did the one that we had before we broke it to the upside around 11k. to me, this looks like they're trying to bait shorters into becoming rocket fuel for another parabolic leg up. if it does break the smaller wedge to the upside, my guess is the impulse move starts there. if not it definitely will if we break the bigger wedge to the upside.
gainzy had a good thread about what he saw, but has since flipped bullish risk on again:
1/3
i wouldn't say we're going to nuke, but at this point clever proprietary entities with a lot of capital and intellectual property of a certain nature realize that the 16.5k asks have been resting there for a long time and don't appear to be lifting with price very close to there.
2/3
meaning, if an algorithm exists that can profitably dump price and flush longs, the conditions for its use are possibly being engineered in a manner so as to extract the maximum amount of profit
tl;dr - as soon as it's profitable to hunt longs, your stops are getting taken
3/3
what makes this more attractive is that books should theoretically be thinner since the weekend has started
there's prob less institutions market making here, which prob makes it more attractive to take a punt at flushing longs when conditions are ripe
or maybe i'm dead wrong.
let me be clear, though. i dont think we get a full on correction yet. this wedge looks bearish but so did the one that we had before we broke it to the upside around 11k. to me, this looks like they're trying to bait shorters into becoming rocket fuel for another parabolic leg up. if it does break the smaller wedge to the upside, my guess is the impulse move starts there. if not it definitely will if we break the bigger wedge to the upside.
gainzy had a good thread about what he saw, but has since flipped bullish risk on again:
1/3
i wouldn't say we're going to nuke, but at this point clever proprietary entities with a lot of capital and intellectual property of a certain nature realize that the 16.5k asks have been resting there for a long time and don't appear to be lifting with price very close to there.
2/3
meaning, if an algorithm exists that can profitably dump price and flush longs, the conditions for its use are possibly being engineered in a manner so as to extract the maximum amount of profit
tl;dr - as soon as it's profitable to hunt longs, your stops are getting taken
3/3
what makes this more attractive is that books should theoretically be thinner since the weekend has started
there's prob less institutions market making here, which prob makes it more attractive to take a punt at flushing longs when conditions are ripe
or maybe i'm dead wrong.