Traders,
An early bearish reversal signal is coming out of the bear cave, ... You know that growling sound.
Technically speaking, price has been on a quasi-reversal trend to the upside went it turned around from 555.90 and hit a new pitch at 607.20 (see chart). However, price has dunged into prior depth as it reversed once again near that prior low.
From the current level, a rally to a structural hurdle, such as 576.44 remains a high probability, but a continuation of that decline will remain a threat to bulls if that level remains validated but not transgressed in a way that clearly sends price to higher grounds. So, for cautionary measures, consider 576.44 as a strong bearish entrenchment.
A pattern trader might decipher a Gartley, or perhaps the cocooning of a butterfly, if indeed price were to fall to lower lows, below 555.90, that is.
The predictive model itself posted an early market reversal signal, short of a confirmation. While the targets remain unconfirmed, i will define them now as a mere warning sign, sort of laying out the ground with red flags to signal bear traps on the way down there.
Still, the PINK zone will act as the LAST bullish bastion, before such bearish minefield scenario plays out. The targets are thus defined as:
1 - TG-1 = 557.43 - 11 AUG 2014
2 - TG-2 = 538.42 - 11 AUG 2014
and
3 - TG-Lo = 524.20 - 11 AUG 2014.
As you may recall, the numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) are levels that define stepwise pauses where price is likely to post a shallower retracement (expect 0.214, 0.382 or 0.500-Fib retracements), as opposed to the qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Lo or TG-Hi) represent levels that are LESS likely to be visited, but IF and ONCE price does reach these levels, it will likely act as a reversal level, pushing price out and passed all other numerical targets and beyond.
OVERALL:
Predictive/forecasting model has posted a warning signal, suggesting a potential decline to targets defined above. This bearish scenario has a HIGHER potential to being executed IF and ONCE price crosses below the PINK zone, thus opening the floor up to these bearish targets. Of course, there is a potential of a Double-Bottom pattern occurring as a very last level of bear rejection, but this is still an unlikely scenario compared to the possibility of a decline.
For now, the directional sign will remain on "Neutral" until a definitive price action commits to one or the other direction relative to the levels defined.
First things first, pink zone!
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
--------------------------------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------------------------------
Interested in finding out what major banks' FX positons are? Get daily medium-term and long-term positions from the big dogs in my TradingView room here:
- www.tradingview.com/chat/
An early bearish reversal signal is coming out of the bear cave, ... You know that growling sound.
Technically speaking, price has been on a quasi-reversal trend to the upside went it turned around from 555.90 and hit a new pitch at 607.20 (see chart). However, price has dunged into prior depth as it reversed once again near that prior low.
From the current level, a rally to a structural hurdle, such as 576.44 remains a high probability, but a continuation of that decline will remain a threat to bulls if that level remains validated but not transgressed in a way that clearly sends price to higher grounds. So, for cautionary measures, consider 576.44 as a strong bearish entrenchment.
A pattern trader might decipher a Gartley, or perhaps the cocooning of a butterfly, if indeed price were to fall to lower lows, below 555.90, that is.
The predictive model itself posted an early market reversal signal, short of a confirmation. While the targets remain unconfirmed, i will define them now as a mere warning sign, sort of laying out the ground with red flags to signal bear traps on the way down there.
Still, the PINK zone will act as the LAST bullish bastion, before such bearish minefield scenario plays out. The targets are thus defined as:
1 - TG-1 = 557.43 - 11 AUG 2014
2 - TG-2 = 538.42 - 11 AUG 2014
and
3 - TG-Lo = 524.20 - 11 AUG 2014.
As you may recall, the numerical targets (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) are levels that define stepwise pauses where price is likely to post a shallower retracement (expect 0.214, 0.382 or 0.500-Fib retracements), as opposed to the qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Lo or TG-Hi) represent levels that are LESS likely to be visited, but IF and ONCE price does reach these levels, it will likely act as a reversal level, pushing price out and passed all other numerical targets and beyond.
OVERALL:
Predictive/forecasting model has posted a warning signal, suggesting a potential decline to targets defined above. This bearish scenario has a HIGHER potential to being executed IF and ONCE price crosses below the PINK zone, thus opening the floor up to these bearish targets. Of course, there is a potential of a Double-Bottom pattern occurring as a very last level of bear rejection, but this is still an unlikely scenario compared to the possibility of a decline.
For now, the directional sign will remain on "Neutral" until a definitive price action commits to one or the other direction relative to the levels defined.
First things first, pink zone!
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
--------------------------------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------------------------------
Interested in finding out what major banks' FX positons are? Get daily medium-term and long-term positions from the big dogs in my TradingView room here:
- www.tradingview.com/chat/
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