BeardTech

DXY Long Term Falling Wedge, Regan Dollars, and Mullets?

Long
INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
I'll mark myself down as long more as a technicality then a true conviction. In my opinion the charting suggest this is bullish, but I like to interpret our break through the multi-decade wedge resistance as a critical point (yet to indicate a particular direction). Despite every suit on CNBC calling the fall of the dollar, I would argue on a historical basis were at a relatively low point (especially if you were to consider the dollar index in gold denominated terms, go chart "dxy/gc1!"). Given these circumstances and an apparently bullish break, Regan and Bush dollar values don't seem too far away.Perhaps mullets will have their comeback too. Ive outlined a smaller falling wedge to give some context as to timing, which would confirm a successful third attempt to break resistance as a catalyst for a rally.

I expect us to continue beyond this point into the high 90's before consolidating, and perhaps retesting the old resistance. Should the old resistance hold as support I would comfortably by into your favorite Dollar ETF. Should it re-enter the wedge pattern I would expect a rather quick fall to mid 80's, hammering out a bottom and completing a second leg of a wave theory retracement.

Nominal measured move of $78 takes us to $170, percentage measured move of 48% takes us to $140. First pit stop is at $118, the most recent high in 2001 and would definitely be my limit sell if it managed to get there. Let's see which way it goes and consider it's affect on gold and exporter stocks.

~ Cheers
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