What most people don't realize is
that the market is rigged. Not by nefarious actors bent on dominating the world, but by the humanity all participants naturally possess. We are a group of people who trade variety of assets, and we cannot avoid the implications of the group component. There is a large measure of mass psychological force that influences the way prices move and levels to which they gravitate and avoid, but sometimes, especially when the market is confused or aimless, these influences of mass psychology can be suppressed or understated due to the fact that the market produces winners and losers, or that assets are difficult to value and status quo is more readily accepted. When a market gets out of sync, we experience volatility as it corrects. The dissonance between expectations and reality are felt by all participants, eventually.
I have had occasion over the past month to trade with a fine gentleman goes by @KEV911, and he has honestly brought me back to reality and vitality in my own market. Our strategies and risk appetites are rather similar, but our technical approaches span the gambit between us, with very little overlap. Kevin had asked me about my thoughts on DXY, the primary asset I track, and had asked me to look at AUD, an asset with which I was unfamiliar. After about an hour and a half of initial review, I said...I think after reaching toward 66, it will need to trade below 62, as low as 59, depending on how long it takes to get to those levels, prior to to a move up to the next level of 67-68. A week or two later, I lined the entire chart, back to 1971, and my conviction grew, that a large devaluation of the asset was necessary to get market corrected and back on a normal pattern. Kevin eventually endorsed my review stating that what amazed him is that although we do not attempt to predict price with the same tools, we had both come to the same conclusion. He revealed he had been talking 62-61 for months, and I had only recently discovered the asset.
As we continue to trade in close proximity, he in forex, I in equities, I have taken an interest in the Aussie dollar, because it appears extremely bullish while its price is relatively demure, in more of a neutral zone. Moreover, PRICE MUST TRADE TO A PARTICULAR TREND LINE ON THE CHART, as far as I am concerned, AND THE SOONER THE BETTER, because the longer it takes, the lower it will need to go to reach the necessary zone and trend line. I do not worry whether this will eventually happen, I have no doubt, it will, but I cannot help but wonder why sometimes it takes so long for price to satisfy its destiny. Some answers may be, not everyone trades on technicals, and less trade on Elliot Wave theories. People are stubborn, and ultimately ignorant of the true value of the assets they trade. Other market forces, like desires to maintain wholly separate asset prices can depend on certain levels being maintained in AUD, for example. I do not know the answer, but what I do know, is that someone will be hurt financially when the necessary move happens, and not because losing on a trad always must be harmful to the losing trader, but because of the extent to which the market is out of balance. A move from nearly 66 to sub 60 in this asset, as I understand, could be a matter of nearly 200,000 even for an average risk position. Moreover, the next move should be quite strong, and quick, with little available exit point.
But, hey, we are all free people, and that is what makes the fun. I hope the maintenance of this price level is worth it to whomever holds it, and I mean that.
Best to ALL,
Cuz
I have had occasion over the past month to trade with a fine gentleman goes by @KEV911, and he has honestly brought me back to reality and vitality in my own market. Our strategies and risk appetites are rather similar, but our technical approaches span the gambit between us, with very little overlap. Kevin had asked me about my thoughts on DXY, the primary asset I track, and had asked me to look at AUD, an asset with which I was unfamiliar. After about an hour and a half of initial review, I said...I think after reaching toward 66, it will need to trade below 62, as low as 59, depending on how long it takes to get to those levels, prior to to a move up to the next level of 67-68. A week or two later, I lined the entire chart, back to 1971, and my conviction grew, that a large devaluation of the asset was necessary to get market corrected and back on a normal pattern. Kevin eventually endorsed my review stating that what amazed him is that although we do not attempt to predict price with the same tools, we had both come to the same conclusion. He revealed he had been talking 62-61 for months, and I had only recently discovered the asset.
As we continue to trade in close proximity, he in forex, I in equities, I have taken an interest in the Aussie dollar, because it appears extremely bullish while its price is relatively demure, in more of a neutral zone. Moreover, PRICE MUST TRADE TO A PARTICULAR TREND LINE ON THE CHART, as far as I am concerned, AND THE SOONER THE BETTER, because the longer it takes, the lower it will need to go to reach the necessary zone and trend line. I do not worry whether this will eventually happen, I have no doubt, it will, but I cannot help but wonder why sometimes it takes so long for price to satisfy its destiny. Some answers may be, not everyone trades on technicals, and less trade on Elliot Wave theories. People are stubborn, and ultimately ignorant of the true value of the assets they trade. Other market forces, like desires to maintain wholly separate asset prices can depend on certain levels being maintained in AUD, for example. I do not know the answer, but what I do know, is that someone will be hurt financially when the necessary move happens, and not because losing on a trad always must be harmful to the losing trader, but because of the extent to which the market is out of balance. A move from nearly 66 to sub 60 in this asset, as I understand, could be a matter of nearly 200,000 even for an average risk position. Moreover, the next move should be quite strong, and quick, with little available exit point.
But, hey, we are all free people, and that is what makes the fun. I hope the maintenance of this price level is worth it to whomever holds it, and I mean that.
Best to ALL,
Cuz
Comment:
Today's move is irrelevant to the downside targets. It could to to 100000, still has to trade .61ish
Comment:
I have altered this count, slightly, and actually dropped my downside target to approximately .585. It is unclear exactly when this target will hit, but one thing I believe is apparent from last Friday's pump...someone(s) are holding a lot of AUD. Wonder who?
Buffet is selling Apple and building a cash position. Who knows whether that actually matters, but could go to velocity of the next move in DXY.
Buffet is selling Apple and building a cash position. Who knows whether that actually matters, but could go to velocity of the next move in DXY.