The BTC price on halving dates (blue) has in the past very regularly been ~50% of the corresponding value of the logarithmic regression trend (yellow line).
By extrapolating that behavior, we get a BTC price of ~$50.000 for the 4th halving date (mid March 2024).
During the preceding bubbles, price exceeded the halving date price by 76%-180%, on average ~125%. I consider the first bubble an outlier with incomplete data, since a true market was not fully established during the first years. Since price data is incomplete I focus only on the two complete cycles (2012-2016, overlay in white, and 2016-2020, overlay in green). With $50.000 as base, the blue target box defines as 50k*(100%+124%) = 112k (upper limit) and 50k*(100%+76%) = 88k (lower limit).
By extrapolating that behavior, we get a BTC price of ~$50.000 for the 4th halving date (mid March 2024).
During the preceding bubbles, price exceeded the halving date price by 76%-180%, on average ~125%. I consider the first bubble an outlier with incomplete data, since a true market was not fully established during the first years. Since price data is incomplete I focus only on the two complete cycles (2012-2016, overlay in white, and 2016-2020, overlay in green). With $50.000 as base, the blue target box defines as 50k*(100%+124%) = 112k (upper limit) and 50k*(100%+76%) = 88k (lower limit).