Warning! Here's Why BTC is Set To Fall To 3000 or Lower!
This is why I think BTC is about to shock the world, with an epic meltdown into halving that nobody expects. I'm sure many of you know that I don't really use Elliott Wave too often, usually because I think it is too prone to misinterpretation. As an analyst, I like to keep things clear and simple on my charts, so that I can decipher what is going on in an easy to understand way. That's what works for me. However, I'm giving Elliott Wave Theory some credence here, in the long term Bitcoin chart.
Now, I've said on numerous occasions that BTC's log regression arc (blue arc) is the most beautiful and technically respected formation that I have ever seen in my eleven years as an analyst. I've also said on multiple occasions, that I didn't trust the recent bull run, because price never fell to my personal regression arc. Many other analysts have drawn it differently, in a way that shows price touching it in December of 2018, but they erroneously allow price to dip below it in years prior, simply to fulfill their fantasies of their emotional narratives. Not MagicPoopCannon. I always bring it to you raw and uncut, even if it causes uproar and rejection.
Looking at this weekly log chart of Bitcoin, you can CLEARLY see that BTC has printed five impulse waves up. The first wave began at it's creation, and the fifth wave ended at the high of 2017. Since then, BTC has clearly been in an ABC correction phase. I mentioned this as a possibility in the past, and here we can see that it really seems to be playing out.
Here's where things get messy though. For the ABC wave to complete itself BTC will more than likely break down below the blue regression arc, and that is a big problem technically, in my opinion. Now, the end of the C wave can be as low as the A wave (flat) or deeper than the A wave (zig-zag.) With that said, if price were to fall quickly to the regression arc, somewhere around 3000, we could see a flat play out, with price completing the C wave without breaking the regression arc.
You may be wondering why the regression arc is so important. In my view, it's the primary technical formation projecting that BTC will rise to the hundreds-of-thousands range. If it is broken and not recovered, BTC may never reach those lofty targets of common belief. That's why I'm concerned about the future of BTC. Conversely, a new 12345 wave impulse could begin after the C wave completes, but who knows if that will happen? Nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin is heavily centralized to China, and they're apparently on a warpath to end all crypto trading. They could easily cause major disruptions in the space, since over 60% of the BTC network is centralized inside of their borders. In other words, I would much rather be a buyer at the end of the C wave, than a holder into oblivion. I have profits to protect, and I intend on doing that, even if it means risking some upside gains. At this point, the market has to prove to me that it can and will recover. One thing that is a fact of trading, is that the trend is your friend. Since the high at 13800, the trend has been down, and I have been incrementally liquidating my positions.
Now, we can see on the chart the the 50 week MA (in orange) is right below the current price action. I showed in the last analysis how I thought BTC would fall to it in the near future, and that happened exactly as I had anticipated. Now that we're here, I think it is more likely that BTC will break down below the 50 week MA, to test the more important support/resistance zone around 6000. If that is lost, BTC could fall to the 5600 range, where it will meet the 200 week MA (in purple.) If you recall, that is where BTC held in December 2018 at about 3200. Unfortunately, if any credence should be given to Elliott and his Theory of Waves, price should also break down below that. Historically, price has never really broken down below the 200 week MA. It has been tested and maybe breached a few times, but never with great magnitude. I think we're about to see a breakdown below that, at least for a retest of the 3000 area at the bottom of the blue regression arc. Honestly, I think the most likely outcome here, is that BTC will fall much deeper than that, potentially to 2000 or lower.
I don't want to give too much weight to Elliott Wave here though. But just look at the volume since 2015. It has been on a consistent fall, dwindling and dwindling while everyone ignores it. Interestingly, the end of the C wave corresponds well with the ending stages of the falling volume resistance (black trendline.) So, there is a good chance that we could see an explosion of surging volume there. So, I would prefer to be a buyer in that region. Basically anything below 3000 I will be interested in buying at this point, and I think that's true for a lot of people, which is why we could see an explosion in volume if prices fall down there.
Furthermore, look at the weekly RSI. You can see that the red horizontal trendline (around 56) is a clear indicator of bull and bear markets. When BTC gets above it and holds above it, we are in a bull market. When BTC breaks down below it, and confirms it as resistance, we are in a bear market. Last month, BTC confirmed that level as resistance, proving that we are in a bear market right now. So, I won't be hodling anything here, until BTC shows a real improvement. If BTC rises 1,000 or more tomorrow, I don't care. I'm looking at the big picture, and I think the highest probability is that BTC will melt into the halving, in a way that nobody is anticipating. In fact, the only reason BTC may have this beautiful chart, is because it has been in the process of forming a perfect 5 wave impulse for the last eight plus years. Now that the impulse is complete, I can't help but wonder if BTC really has any value. People will call that FUD and blah blah blah, but I'm an analyst and an educated investor — not a blind ideologist. I do think BTC has value, I just don't know what that value is, especially since adoption is lackluster, the lightning network is unimpressive, and BTC has shown that it isn't much other than a "digital store of value." Considering BTC's volatility, and the fact that it's at the end of a five wave impulse, BTC could be a DESTROYER of value going forward. We simply don't know, and there is no real way to calculate the value of it. I've looked at mining costs, profitability, difficulty adjustments, halvings, transaction values, the hash rate, you name it. The true value of BTC is something that everyone speculates on.
I'll leave you with this; just because BTC has risen for the majority of it's lifetime, doesn't mean that it will be profitable from here. For all we know, BTC may never see 10,000 again, and there are many technical and fundamental reasons to believe that. Choose your moves wisely. The future we've all envisioned is not guaranteed.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Now, I've said on numerous occasions that BTC's log regression arc (blue arc) is the most beautiful and technically respected formation that I have ever seen in my eleven years as an analyst. I've also said on multiple occasions, that I didn't trust the recent bull run, because price never fell to my personal regression arc. Many other analysts have drawn it differently, in a way that shows price touching it in December of 2018, but they erroneously allow price to dip below it in years prior, simply to fulfill their fantasies of their emotional narratives. Not MagicPoopCannon. I always bring it to you raw and uncut, even if it causes uproar and rejection.
Looking at this weekly log chart of Bitcoin, you can CLEARLY see that BTC has printed five impulse waves up. The first wave began at it's creation, and the fifth wave ended at the high of 2017. Since then, BTC has clearly been in an ABC correction phase. I mentioned this as a possibility in the past, and here we can see that it really seems to be playing out.
Here's where things get messy though. For the ABC wave to complete itself BTC will more than likely break down below the blue regression arc, and that is a big problem technically, in my opinion. Now, the end of the C wave can be as low as the A wave (flat) or deeper than the A wave (zig-zag.) With that said, if price were to fall quickly to the regression arc, somewhere around 3000, we could see a flat play out, with price completing the C wave without breaking the regression arc.
You may be wondering why the regression arc is so important. In my view, it's the primary technical formation projecting that BTC will rise to the hundreds-of-thousands range. If it is broken and not recovered, BTC may never reach those lofty targets of common belief. That's why I'm concerned about the future of BTC. Conversely, a new 12345 wave impulse could begin after the C wave completes, but who knows if that will happen? Nothing is guaranteed. Bitcoin is heavily centralized to China, and they're apparently on a warpath to end all crypto trading. They could easily cause major disruptions in the space, since over 60% of the BTC network is centralized inside of their borders. In other words, I would much rather be a buyer at the end of the C wave, than a holder into oblivion. I have profits to protect, and I intend on doing that, even if it means risking some upside gains. At this point, the market has to prove to me that it can and will recover. One thing that is a fact of trading, is that the trend is your friend. Since the high at 13800, the trend has been down, and I have been incrementally liquidating my positions.
Now, we can see on the chart the the 50 week MA (in orange) is right below the current price action. I showed in the last analysis how I thought BTC would fall to it in the near future, and that happened exactly as I had anticipated. Now that we're here, I think it is more likely that BTC will break down below the 50 week MA, to test the more important support/resistance zone around 6000. If that is lost, BTC could fall to the 5600 range, where it will meet the 200 week MA (in purple.) If you recall, that is where BTC held in December 2018 at about 3200. Unfortunately, if any credence should be given to Elliott and his Theory of Waves, price should also break down below that. Historically, price has never really broken down below the 200 week MA. It has been tested and maybe breached a few times, but never with great magnitude. I think we're about to see a breakdown below that, at least for a retest of the 3000 area at the bottom of the blue regression arc. Honestly, I think the most likely outcome here, is that BTC will fall much deeper than that, potentially to 2000 or lower.
I don't want to give too much weight to Elliott Wave here though. But just look at the volume since 2015. It has been on a consistent fall, dwindling and dwindling while everyone ignores it. Interestingly, the end of the C wave corresponds well with the ending stages of the falling volume resistance (black trendline.) So, there is a good chance that we could see an explosion of surging volume there. So, I would prefer to be a buyer in that region. Basically anything below 3000 I will be interested in buying at this point, and I think that's true for a lot of people, which is why we could see an explosion in volume if prices fall down there.
Furthermore, look at the weekly RSI. You can see that the red horizontal trendline (around 56) is a clear indicator of bull and bear markets. When BTC gets above it and holds above it, we are in a bull market. When BTC breaks down below it, and confirms it as resistance, we are in a bear market. Last month, BTC confirmed that level as resistance, proving that we are in a bear market right now. So, I won't be hodling anything here, until BTC shows a real improvement. If BTC rises 1,000 or more tomorrow, I don't care. I'm looking at the big picture, and I think the highest probability is that BTC will melt into the halving, in a way that nobody is anticipating. In fact, the only reason BTC may have this beautiful chart, is because it has been in the process of forming a perfect 5 wave impulse for the last eight plus years. Now that the impulse is complete, I can't help but wonder if BTC really has any value. People will call that FUD and blah blah blah, but I'm an analyst and an educated investor — not a blind ideologist. I do think BTC has value, I just don't know what that value is, especially since adoption is lackluster, the lightning network is unimpressive, and BTC has shown that it isn't much other than a "digital store of value." Considering BTC's volatility, and the fact that it's at the end of a five wave impulse, BTC could be a DESTROYER of value going forward. We simply don't know, and there is no real way to calculate the value of it. I've looked at mining costs, profitability, difficulty adjustments, halvings, transaction values, the hash rate, you name it. The true value of BTC is something that everyone speculates on.
I'll leave you with this; just because BTC has risen for the majority of it's lifetime, doesn't mean that it will be profitable from here. For all we know, BTC may never see 10,000 again, and there are many technical and fundamental reasons to believe that. Choose your moves wisely. The future we've all envisioned is not guaranteed.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-