As my title indicates, this plot highlights facts above all:
- Bitcoin price follows "Square Root" channels (SQRT function)
- All with an alternation of local Dips (each time higher than the previous ones) and new All Time High (ATH)
- These cycle Dip always materialize by an RSI 14 under a value of 34, showing an oversold (see my analysis of 2018-12-18 in link below)
- These ATH always materialize by an RSI 14 exceeding a value of 84, showing an overbought
- There is a clear correspondence with the Halvings dividing the block rewards by two for the miners, which is a programming of the progressive scarcity of generation of BTC.
So much for the facts.
Now here are my deductions:
- I have extended the layout of the SQRT channels to 2023: we are seeing a tightening of the price there, but beware, we are on a logarithmic scale! All the same, there emerges a new ATH > $ 60,000 followed by a potential local Dip which would remain higher than the current price.
- An average of the timing differences observed between the different Dip cycles allows me to consider the point of fall for a next Dip within 20 bars.
- This analysis is a little more pessimistic than my previous ones, while noting that it would still not be possible to buy 4-digit BTC (under $ 10,000) from 2022. So those who buy BTC currently will necessarily be winners on HODL.
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice. Invest only what you can afford to lose.
Do not listen to any "prophet" or other "evangelist", it is important that you make up your own mind.