Almost a year ago I called the beginning of winter time for altcoins -
While we needed the FTX crash to start the process, Bitcoin dominance has reached the first target of 48% few months ago and even pushed higher for a while just to retrace back to same level recently.
In all this time the dominance continued to put in higher highs and higher lows.
I strongly believe that we are still in the middle of the altcoin reckoning process and still expect Bitcoin's dominance to move higher and reach 58% in the upcoming months.
What's worth noting is that TOTAL2 (all crypto except BTC) minus stablecoins is in a downtrend since January '22.
Considering the last cycle's pivots and evolution, and including this cycle's Fibonacci areas, I expect TOTAL2 minus stablecoins to bottom in the same area as 4 years ago, albeit a bit later. This, in my opinion, is due to the excessive monetary mass that is currently still circulating in the markets.
However, as the bear market continues, liquidity is moved from more risky assets to less risky assets. For crypto, this means money flows back from very risky alts -> to less risky alts -> to ETH -> to BTC.
Special mention about ETH - while it seems to be holding really well for the last year, if history is of any relevance we will see it crumble under Bitcoin's domination in the next 6 months. Currently ETH's USD pair is testing the uptrend line that was built from June through November last year. However, on the BTC pair ETH has been putting lower highs all the way since January '22. It's only a matter of time until it will retest previous supports.
So what does this all mean for you?
Firstly, stay away from altcoins for a while. Look at their BTC pair and acknowledge when they bottom against it - only then it becomes worthwhile to consider switching to / buying that altcoin.
Secondly, if you are knees deep into altcoins, consider switching them for Bitcoin. As they deteriorate against BTC you will be able to switch back to them getting a bigger share.
Thirdly, if you consider ETH to be a good investment today, also consider the greater risk you expose yourself to - ETH's valuation against BTC is still pretty high and it's more likely that it will revisit previous lows. Waiting for ETH to bottom against BTC will give you a greater risk to reward ratio.
💎 Looking forward for your questions below. If this idea provided you value, follow for more.
While we needed the FTX crash to start the process, Bitcoin dominance has reached the first target of 48% few months ago and even pushed higher for a while just to retrace back to same level recently.
In all this time the dominance continued to put in higher highs and higher lows.
I strongly believe that we are still in the middle of the altcoin reckoning process and still expect Bitcoin's dominance to move higher and reach 58% in the upcoming months.
What's worth noting is that TOTAL2 (all crypto except BTC) minus stablecoins is in a downtrend since January '22.
Considering the last cycle's pivots and evolution, and including this cycle's Fibonacci areas, I expect TOTAL2 minus stablecoins to bottom in the same area as 4 years ago, albeit a bit later. This, in my opinion, is due to the excessive monetary mass that is currently still circulating in the markets.
However, as the bear market continues, liquidity is moved from more risky assets to less risky assets. For crypto, this means money flows back from very risky alts -> to less risky alts -> to ETH -> to BTC.
Special mention about ETH - while it seems to be holding really well for the last year, if history is of any relevance we will see it crumble under Bitcoin's domination in the next 6 months. Currently ETH's USD pair is testing the uptrend line that was built from June through November last year. However, on the BTC pair ETH has been putting lower highs all the way since January '22. It's only a matter of time until it will retest previous supports.
So what does this all mean for you?
Firstly, stay away from altcoins for a while. Look at their BTC pair and acknowledge when they bottom against it - only then it becomes worthwhile to consider switching to / buying that altcoin.
Secondly, if you are knees deep into altcoins, consider switching them for Bitcoin. As they deteriorate against BTC you will be able to switch back to them getting a bigger share.
Thirdly, if you consider ETH to be a good investment today, also consider the greater risk you expose yourself to - ETH's valuation against BTC is still pretty high and it's more likely that it will revisit previous lows. Waiting for ETH to bottom against BTC will give you a greater risk to reward ratio.
💎 Looking forward for your questions below. If this idea provided you value, follow for more.
