We missed the bullet yesterday as BTC bounced off of 10k and we are now moving up. Break out the champagne and let the party resume.
Not so fast. I'm not so sure we are anywhere near bullish enough to be buying imported champagne. It is more like domestic beer and a pizza.
The chart shows what I believe is an organized run up from April 1st when it shot up $1000 in an hour and never retraced a dime. That had my spider senses tingling. A 25% move up in an hour and no one is selling to take profits? Or more likely there were buyers in the shadows buying up all the BTC they could.
It went into accumulation phase for exactly 2 months, from May 12 to June 13 then it started moving up. It peaked on June 22 on high volume and corrected the very next day when it tried to break through the 0.818 Fib retracement level. This Fib retracement was drawn from the recent January bottom to the ATH in 2017.
The daily chart shows we are now in a down channel and BTC will head in 1 of 2 likely directions. Three if you count sideways but I doubt it will go into accumulation after what we have been through in the past 3 weeks.
Possible Outcomes
1-BTC breaks out of the channel and we are headed to 15k if we get high volume
2-BTC continues to fall in the channel until it hits the 8k level. You may have noticed the Volume Profile shows 8k is the average price by volume since the April 1st breakout. This is a very strong level of support and if there is a level that will stop a strong price plunge, this is it.
Which direction will it go? You could flip a coin and find out. But the weekly chart has a super large doji at the top, which scares the bejeebers out of me. Especially if you combine it with this week's candle which (so far) is another doji. We need to see a breakout of this channel for me to relax a little.
BTW, BTC didn't actually bounce off of the 10k line. If you look at the 30 minute chart you see the price crashed through the 10k line 3 or 4 times. It kept going through it, and surfacing again and getting smashed through it again. If there wasn't so much money riding on the outcome, I'd consider it comical. It was almost like watching a dunk tank with BTC sitting on the seat and an all star baseball pitcher throwing the ball at the target dunking poor old BTC at will. Lucky for us he either got tired and left, or ran out of balls. LOL
Not so fast. I'm not so sure we are anywhere near bullish enough to be buying imported champagne. It is more like domestic beer and a pizza.
The chart shows what I believe is an organized run up from April 1st when it shot up $1000 in an hour and never retraced a dime. That had my spider senses tingling. A 25% move up in an hour and no one is selling to take profits? Or more likely there were buyers in the shadows buying up all the BTC they could.
It went into accumulation phase for exactly 2 months, from May 12 to June 13 then it started moving up. It peaked on June 22 on high volume and corrected the very next day when it tried to break through the 0.818 Fib retracement level. This Fib retracement was drawn from the recent January bottom to the ATH in 2017.
The daily chart shows we are now in a down channel and BTC will head in 1 of 2 likely directions. Three if you count sideways but I doubt it will go into accumulation after what we have been through in the past 3 weeks.
Possible Outcomes
1-BTC breaks out of the channel and we are headed to 15k if we get high volume
2-BTC continues to fall in the channel until it hits the 8k level. You may have noticed the Volume Profile shows 8k is the average price by volume since the April 1st breakout. This is a very strong level of support and if there is a level that will stop a strong price plunge, this is it.
Which direction will it go? You could flip a coin and find out. But the weekly chart has a super large doji at the top, which scares the bejeebers out of me. Especially if you combine it with this week's candle which (so far) is another doji. We need to see a breakout of this channel for me to relax a little.
BTW, BTC didn't actually bounce off of the 10k line. If you look at the 30 minute chart you see the price crashed through the 10k line 3 or 4 times. It kept going through it, and surfacing again and getting smashed through it again. If there wasn't so much money riding on the outcome, I'd consider it comical. It was almost like watching a dunk tank with BTC sitting on the seat and an all star baseball pitcher throwing the ball at the target dunking poor old BTC at will. Lucky for us he either got tired and left, or ran out of balls. LOL