First published idea so take this with a big grain of salt.
In the short term, I see 3 potential scenarios for Bitcoin playing out. These ideas revolve around a convergence of previous supports/resistances, the upper and lower ranges we have been trading between, and the MA 50/200 cross. There's technically a 4th scenario which is we don't test the convergent supports at all and just keep moving higher. Personally I feel this is unlikely to happen and if it did, would signal a trap.
• Scenario 1: Convergent support holds and we begin moving back up towards the BOTTOM of the upper range again.
• Scenario 2: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the TOP of the lower range and then back up completing an inverse head and shoulders.
• Scenario 3: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the BOTTOM of the lower range (30k) and then up.
IMO, scenario 3 is most likely and most healthy due to the dreaded "death cross" we're approaching Ultimately, I think the failure of the convergent support with this upcoming cross will signal a much bigger sell off than Scenario 2 can withhold (which explains the massive amount of shorts still sitting on the books). Once these shorts have taken profit, I believe the move upwards will be quick and will possibly happen the day before the cross officially happens.
In the short term, I see 3 potential scenarios for Bitcoin playing out. These ideas revolve around a convergence of previous supports/resistances, the upper and lower ranges we have been trading between, and the MA 50/200 cross. There's technically a 4th scenario which is we don't test the convergent supports at all and just keep moving higher. Personally I feel this is unlikely to happen and if it did, would signal a trap.
• Scenario 1: Convergent support holds and we begin moving back up towards the BOTTOM of the upper range again.
• Scenario 2: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the TOP of the lower range and then back up completing an inverse head and shoulders.
• Scenario 3: Convergent support fails and we take a quick dive towards the BOTTOM of the lower range (30k) and then up.
IMO, scenario 3 is most likely and most healthy due to the dreaded "death cross" we're approaching Ultimately, I think the failure of the convergent support with this upcoming cross will signal a much bigger sell off than Scenario 2 can withhold (which explains the massive amount of shorts still sitting on the books). Once these shorts have taken profit, I believe the move upwards will be quick and will possibly happen the day before the cross officially happens.
Comment:
Well it took a bit lot longer to reach the initial target but we finally hit it today and I am able to close my shorts. Any move to the downside from here and I will be looking short to the 33k level keeping in mind that a very large pump is waiting to happen at some point. If you follow me in this trade, it will require proper risk management and a very watchful eye. Very risky trade.
Trade closed: target reached:
Wicked down to 33k so I closed my shorts. Looking to slowly add long positions here but keeping an eye out for retest.
Comment:
No long positions added. Bunch of indicators showing themselves pointing to further downward movement. Both crypto and traditional markets. Will be moving back into shorts with scenario 3 as the target.
Trade closed: target reached:
All shorts reached and trade closed.