Bitcoin push-hands: the 1st half is Grayscale, the 2nd is Musk?

Among all risky assets, Bitcoin has the best response to the 10-year surge in U.S. bond yields. However, the trend has been weak in the past week, and there has been a retracement. Although Grayscale and other institutions have begun to take over Bitcoin's pricing power from cryptocurrency exchanges, the market factors affecting Bitcoin are still diverse. For example, Musk posted on Twitter today that American users can buy Tesla cars with Bitcoin, which is considered to be the main driver of this round of rebound. If this is such a hawk in the regulated securities market, it will definitely be targeted by the regulators. Moreover, many people question whether Musk’s approach will really be adopted by customers? Based on the current market conditions, are speculators willing to use the historically appreciated Bitcoin to buy cars that depreciate when they are bought? In addition, legal risks are also a problem. Suppose: Someone buys Bitcoin with black money, he uses Bitcoin to buy hundreds of Tesla cars, and then sells dozens of new cars. Does Tesla need to bear legal responsibility in it?

In any case, this is good news for the crypto market to break the silence. Given that Grayscale has already played an important role in the Bitcoin market, I have produced two technical indicators to monitor Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holdings and trends. It can be seen that Grayscale buys Bitcoin on a large scale in the range of 25,000 to 29,000 US dollars. Although Grayscale executives advertised on Twitter that a 10% retracement of Bitcoin is a buying opportunity, in fact, Grayscale has no more large-scale buying activities after Bitcoin doubles. On the contrary, since March 2021, Grayscale has been reducing its holdings of Bitcoin on a small scale. After the -9% discount on GBTC, Grayscale reduced its holdings of 111 bitcoins on March 22. This is believed to have taken the lead in damaging market confidence and causing Bitcoin to fall. And Musk's tweet today caused a rebound. Excellent spin doctors! Grayscale in the first half, Musk in the second half. It is nothing more than attracting incremental funds to enter the market and take over their coins. Combined with the situation when Bitcoin's sideways , altcoins have begun various pulls, indicating that the crypto market has entered the third stage. As long as the incremental funds enter and help institutions take profit, we will begin to enter a bear market cycle then.