2024-05-07 - a daily price action after hour update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
Most indexes closed around their opening prices and that’s as neutral as it gets. Dax squeeze party goes hard again. I do believe with all my heart, buying long term shorts here at 18500 is an absolute no brainer of a trade. It’s also mathematically as sound as it gets. You decide what sounds better. Get an 2x or 3x dax short etf and bet grannies house to get 2 houses over the next 1-2 years.
bitcoin
comment: In my weekly outlook I gave a fractal thesis why we could turn around again due to the daily 20ema. Right now we got 2 bear bars on the daily chart but they look weak at best. Bears need a strong daily close below 62000 to convince me but as long as we don’t trade above 67000, bear thesis lives on.
current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range
key levels: 56000 - 67000
bull case: Bulls keeping this above 63000 and bears below 65000. Market just moves sideways, wait for clear impulse.
bear case: It’s a trading range and I don’t need to pull stuff out of my ... to fill this page. Bears need prices below 63000 with follow through below 62000 for this to be on it’s way to 50000.
short term: Sideways for W4 before W5 brings us down to around 50000. W4 should stay below 65000. -> Updated 63000 to 65000.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
trade of the day: Buy 63000 and scalp. Clear support and you have to take advantage of it until it clearly brakes.
Most indexes closed around their opening prices and that’s as neutral as it gets. Dax squeeze party goes hard again. I do believe with all my heart, buying long term shorts here at 18500 is an absolute no brainer of a trade. It’s also mathematically as sound as it gets. You decide what sounds better. Get an 2x or 3x dax short etf and bet grannies house to get 2 houses over the next 1-2 years.
bitcoin
comment: In my weekly outlook I gave a fractal thesis why we could turn around again due to the daily 20ema. Right now we got 2 bear bars on the daily chart but they look weak at best. Bears need a strong daily close below 62000 to convince me but as long as we don’t trade above 67000, bear thesis lives on.
current market cycle: Very weak bear trend - if bulls trade it above 67400, it’s a trading range
key levels: 56000 - 67000
bull case: Bulls keeping this above 63000 and bears below 65000. Market just moves sideways, wait for clear impulse.
bear case: It’s a trading range and I don’t need to pull stuff out of my ... to fill this page. Bears need prices below 63000 with follow through below 62000 for this to be on it’s way to 50000.
short term: Sideways for W4 before W5 brings us down to around 50000. W4 should stay below 65000. -> Updated 63000 to 65000.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
trade of the day: Buy 63000 and scalp. Clear support and you have to take advantage of it until it clearly brakes.
