BTC: July and August worst performing months since 2011...
Like everybody is saying “its boring at the moment”, Yes it is. But If I listen to all the news about BTC on the internet every indicator is flashing and BTC is at a point of breaking out and we are going to the moon….Personally I think which indicator is flashing and why are some people pumping BTC everyday like it’s the last bus that’s going home
For the short term we are bearish for these reasons:
1. On the 24th of June the 21 EMA crossed down the 55 EMA on the 4h chart: SELL Signal. Still the 21 EMA is above the 55 EMA on the daily.
2. Since the 2nd of July the BTC price is moving below the 21 EMA
3. The Hash Ribbon indicator still hasn’t flashed a buy signal. A famous analyst claimed there is a bug in it why it didn’t flashed. After we had contact last week with the developer of The Hash Ribbon indicator and checked if this was true. The answer was, The Hash Ribbon indicator has NO bug and works fine.
4. Our several Jackrabbit algorithms gave a sell alert on the 1st of July.
5. Volume is still declining
6. The RSI is currently 44 on the daily chart, so there is plenty of room for the downside. Since the 7th of May when the RSI was above 70 it is declining. The last time the RSI was above 70 was 8th of February and was eventually resulting in the crash of black Thursday.
7. We hear that a lot of influencers calling that BTC behaves likes the past, and we are almost at the point of breaking out. But if we look at the behavior of BTC in the last 9 years in the months July and August we have some other facts. The 9- Year performance of BTC in the months July and August are very bad. 2011 -/-59%, 2012 -/-49%, 2013 -/-45%, 2014 -32%, 2015 -/-37%, 2016 -/-32%, 2017 -/-31%, 2018 -/- 30%, 2019 -/-31%. Of course results in the past give guarantees of the future.
8. BTC is still in a bearish trend since dec 2017, that is almost 2,5 years
9. Our planet earth still has BIG (economic) problems with COVID-19. We read that a lot of people saying/writing that BTC is a hedge against fiat currency. But this is not true. If you read the Whitepaper of Satoshi Nakamoto you will not find anything that BTC is developed of hedging fiat currency. BTC has becoming a part of the global economy. And when Global Economy gets hit, BTC and the cryptocurrencies are also getting hit. We have seen this in March. BUT we also see signs that BTC correlation with the stockmarket is getting less.
On the medium and long term we are absolutely BULLISH on BTC. A lot of institutional investors, retail investors, governments etc are buying BTC. Last week Austria is adding 2500 merchants of accepting BTC. More and more cryptocurrencies are getting part of our daily life.
What do we see on the BTC chart currently? I made the chart on the principles of the trader W.D. Gann. Gann inspired me since my early days of trading (>20 years). Combining the usual TA tools, the Jackrabbit algorithms and the trading principles of Gann gave us extra insights and confirmation in which direction the markets (could) move. Timecycles, Square of 9, Angles, The law of Vibration. Love it!
BTC currently trades at $9074 as I write this. We see support on the $9000, $8800, $8600, $8400 and $8000 to $8200 level. Resistance we see on the $9250. We expect that we set a new bottom on the 6th of July. On the 7th of July the “up” cycle starts again till the 22th of July. On the 16th of July we expect the high of this up cycle between $9400 and $9600. From 22th July till 8th of august we expect a BIG drop, for now we think between the 23th and 29th of July. This could be the final bottom before the REAL bull run begins around 21st-23th of September.
Stay focused and be patience these weeks..!!! Happy Trading and we keep you updated…
For the short term we are bearish for these reasons:
1. On the 24th of June the 21 EMA crossed down the 55 EMA on the 4h chart: SELL Signal. Still the 21 EMA is above the 55 EMA on the daily.
2. Since the 2nd of July the BTC price is moving below the 21 EMA
3. The Hash Ribbon indicator still hasn’t flashed a buy signal. A famous analyst claimed there is a bug in it why it didn’t flashed. After we had contact last week with the developer of The Hash Ribbon indicator and checked if this was true. The answer was, The Hash Ribbon indicator has NO bug and works fine.
4. Our several Jackrabbit algorithms gave a sell alert on the 1st of July.
5. Volume is still declining
6. The RSI is currently 44 on the daily chart, so there is plenty of room for the downside. Since the 7th of May when the RSI was above 70 it is declining. The last time the RSI was above 70 was 8th of February and was eventually resulting in the crash of black Thursday.
7. We hear that a lot of influencers calling that BTC behaves likes the past, and we are almost at the point of breaking out. But if we look at the behavior of BTC in the last 9 years in the months July and August we have some other facts. The 9- Year performance of BTC in the months July and August are very bad. 2011 -/-59%, 2012 -/-49%, 2013 -/-45%, 2014 -32%, 2015 -/-37%, 2016 -/-32%, 2017 -/-31%, 2018 -/- 30%, 2019 -/-31%. Of course results in the past give guarantees of the future.
8. BTC is still in a bearish trend since dec 2017, that is almost 2,5 years
9. Our planet earth still has BIG (economic) problems with COVID-19. We read that a lot of people saying/writing that BTC is a hedge against fiat currency. But this is not true. If you read the Whitepaper of Satoshi Nakamoto you will not find anything that BTC is developed of hedging fiat currency. BTC has becoming a part of the global economy. And when Global Economy gets hit, BTC and the cryptocurrencies are also getting hit. We have seen this in March. BUT we also see signs that BTC correlation with the stockmarket is getting less.
On the medium and long term we are absolutely BULLISH on BTC. A lot of institutional investors, retail investors, governments etc are buying BTC. Last week Austria is adding 2500 merchants of accepting BTC. More and more cryptocurrencies are getting part of our daily life.
What do we see on the BTC chart currently? I made the chart on the principles of the trader W.D. Gann. Gann inspired me since my early days of trading (>20 years). Combining the usual TA tools, the Jackrabbit algorithms and the trading principles of Gann gave us extra insights and confirmation in which direction the markets (could) move. Timecycles, Square of 9, Angles, The law of Vibration. Love it!
BTC currently trades at $9074 as I write this. We see support on the $9000, $8800, $8600, $8400 and $8000 to $8200 level. Resistance we see on the $9250. We expect that we set a new bottom on the 6th of July. On the 7th of July the “up” cycle starts again till the 22th of July. On the 16th of July we expect the high of this up cycle between $9400 and $9600. From 22th July till 8th of august we expect a BIG drop, for now we think between the 23th and 29th of July. This could be the final bottom before the REAL bull run begins around 21st-23th of September.
Stay focused and be patience these weeks..!!! Happy Trading and we keep you updated…
Comment:
This was a nice up day. Was I a day to early? Well most important is that BTC is trading above the $9250. If we have a daily close above this support than the trend is up for the next 11 days...
We still believe tomorrow the 6th of July will be the bottom and Tuesday the 7th BTC will go up.
Stay focused and cautious...!