This Formation Projects BTC to Fall to 1000! Near Worthlessness!
On today's BTC analysis, we're going to take a look at a formation that is projecting a fall to 1000. Here on the weekly chart, you can see that BTC has formed a head and shoulders pattern (in red.) It isn't the most symmetrical head and shoulders pattern, but that doesn't mean anything. There is clearly a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. Also, there is a clear neckline at the bottom of the formation. As an analyst, I have seen many head and shoulders formations that are not perfectly symmetrical. In fact, most of them aren't perfect. However, the asymmetrical ones break down just as well as the symmetrical ones.
Looking at the formation more closely, we can see the price has fallen sharply from the right shoulder, and it's now BELOW the neckline. What is even more important to note, is the fact that the 50 week moving average (in orange) has also been broken. I've recently shown how reactive the 50 week moving average has been, and BTC has just broken below it. Actually, you can see that BTC has now turned back to the upside, and is testing the 50 week MA and the head and shoulders neckline for resistance.
So, here is the key to this analysis. If the resistance holds here, it will confirm the head and shoulders breakdown. As you can see, I have a projected target on the chart for the head and shoulders formation. For those who are unaware, to project a target for a head and shoulders formation, you take the height of the head and subtract it from the neckline breakdown point. I've done that on the chart, as shown by the vertical dashed purple trendlines. Interestingly, the size of this head and shoulders pattern projects a fall to 1000 exactly.
This has me extremely concerned for crypto as a whole. There are many fundamental problems right now, such as a lack of adoption, extreme regulatory opposition, user unfriendliness, and a pure lack of necessity. What I mean by that, is cash is working just fine right now. So, investors aren't being PUSHED to crypto. There are some projects like XRP that offer solutions to streamline the global financial system, but it isn't an absolute necessity at the moment, and the charts are reflecting that. Also, the crypto space has a major oversupply issue. I've highlighted this recently in my alt coin total market cap analysis. You can see that the volume in alt coins has been rising, while the price has been falling. That has been happening since the high of January 2018. What that shows is that the demand (volume) is rising, but price is still falling as a result of extreme oversupply. There are just too many crypto projects out there, and they're diluting the distribution of investor funds. Like it or not, that is a major problem, and the only way to fix it is to let the market implode in a way that causes a mass exodus of crypto projects. Either that, or crypto needs a massive rise in demand, and that doesn't seem to be happening.
We have to really ask ourselves what the value of this stuff is. I know everyone thinks BTC will go to new highs, and that is also a major problem. The fact that everyone thinks that is a bearish sign in itself. Markets usually do the opposite of what retail investors think. Speaking of retail investors, that's another major problem here. The space is full of retail investors who all expect to get rich quick. The majority of them will fold under pressure, and that is also a major risk right now.
So, the head and shoulders is projecting a fall to 1000. That is also in line with the ABC correction that I recently showed on my log chart for BTC. The ABC correction suggests a fall to at least 3000. It's more likely that BTC will fall even lower than that.
Now, I realize that there is a lot of support between the current price and the levels that I'm talking about. There is the massive support near 6000, the top of the downtrend channel (in blue,) there is huge support at the 200 week MA (in purple,) and there is a rising trendline support from the lows of early 2019, which I don't show on this chart. So, knowing that those support levels are there, it isn't really easy to anticipate a fall to 3000 or lower. But I do. Unless BTC can change the downtrend, with higher highs and higher lows, and PROVE to me that a recovery is occurring, I fully expect price to fall to 3000 or lower. If that happens, BTC will have broken the log regression arc (featured in my long-term log analysis of BTC) and that totally changes the long-term projection of BTC.
So, BTC is testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern right now. If it holds as resistance, I expect a rapid acceleration to the downside.
I'm sure the comment section of this analysis will explode with rejection, but so too did the comment sections of my charts that called for BTC to fall to 3000 when it was still above 10000. Everyone knows what happened after that. I'll leave you with a fitting Tweet that I left on Twitter today...
"The worst thing about the crypto space is the investors in it. Most are inexperienced investors who blindly throw their piggy banks at dreams to get rich quick. They cling to their ideologies and completely ignore imminent danger, calling it "FUD." It's is a recipe for disaster."
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at the formation more closely, we can see the price has fallen sharply from the right shoulder, and it's now BELOW the neckline. What is even more important to note, is the fact that the 50 week moving average (in orange) has also been broken. I've recently shown how reactive the 50 week moving average has been, and BTC has just broken below it. Actually, you can see that BTC has now turned back to the upside, and is testing the 50 week MA and the head and shoulders neckline for resistance.
So, here is the key to this analysis. If the resistance holds here, it will confirm the head and shoulders breakdown. As you can see, I have a projected target on the chart for the head and shoulders formation. For those who are unaware, to project a target for a head and shoulders formation, you take the height of the head and subtract it from the neckline breakdown point. I've done that on the chart, as shown by the vertical dashed purple trendlines. Interestingly, the size of this head and shoulders pattern projects a fall to 1000 exactly.
This has me extremely concerned for crypto as a whole. There are many fundamental problems right now, such as a lack of adoption, extreme regulatory opposition, user unfriendliness, and a pure lack of necessity. What I mean by that, is cash is working just fine right now. So, investors aren't being PUSHED to crypto. There are some projects like XRP that offer solutions to streamline the global financial system, but it isn't an absolute necessity at the moment, and the charts are reflecting that. Also, the crypto space has a major oversupply issue. I've highlighted this recently in my alt coin total market cap analysis. You can see that the volume in alt coins has been rising, while the price has been falling. That has been happening since the high of January 2018. What that shows is that the demand (volume) is rising, but price is still falling as a result of extreme oversupply. There are just too many crypto projects out there, and they're diluting the distribution of investor funds. Like it or not, that is a major problem, and the only way to fix it is to let the market implode in a way that causes a mass exodus of crypto projects. Either that, or crypto needs a massive rise in demand, and that doesn't seem to be happening.
We have to really ask ourselves what the value of this stuff is. I know everyone thinks BTC will go to new highs, and that is also a major problem. The fact that everyone thinks that is a bearish sign in itself. Markets usually do the opposite of what retail investors think. Speaking of retail investors, that's another major problem here. The space is full of retail investors who all expect to get rich quick. The majority of them will fold under pressure, and that is also a major risk right now.
So, the head and shoulders is projecting a fall to 1000. That is also in line with the ABC correction that I recently showed on my log chart for BTC. The ABC correction suggests a fall to at least 3000. It's more likely that BTC will fall even lower than that.
Now, I realize that there is a lot of support between the current price and the levels that I'm talking about. There is the massive support near 6000, the top of the downtrend channel (in blue,) there is huge support at the 200 week MA (in purple,) and there is a rising trendline support from the lows of early 2019, which I don't show on this chart. So, knowing that those support levels are there, it isn't really easy to anticipate a fall to 3000 or lower. But I do. Unless BTC can change the downtrend, with higher highs and higher lows, and PROVE to me that a recovery is occurring, I fully expect price to fall to 3000 or lower. If that happens, BTC will have broken the log regression arc (featured in my long-term log analysis of BTC) and that totally changes the long-term projection of BTC.
So, BTC is testing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern right now. If it holds as resistance, I expect a rapid acceleration to the downside.
I'm sure the comment section of this analysis will explode with rejection, but so too did the comment sections of my charts that called for BTC to fall to 3000 when it was still above 10000. Everyone knows what happened after that. I'll leave you with a fitting Tweet that I left on Twitter today...
"The worst thing about the crypto space is the investors in it. Most are inexperienced investors who blindly throw their piggy banks at dreams to get rich quick. They cling to their ideologies and completely ignore imminent danger, calling it "FUD." It's is a recipe for disaster."
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-