Yesterday, I wrote that breaking through the yellow circle (or not) would provide the direction for BTC as it has never been able to punch through this upper trend line in this bearish wave. Now it has gone back down to the neckline of the heads and shoulders (white line).
The price action in the blue circle will determine if it surpasses the 768 retracement level and punches through the neckline and confirm the wave C down to $17k.
Unlike some others posting ideas, I am not relying on just 1 or 2 patterns to make a decision, I have drawn every pattern I know from hourly to weekly timeframes and as the price breaks each pattern I erase it. So far my gut is telling me a Wave C down to $17k as at least 90% of patterns I've drawn point down, but it is hard when the chorus of people here giving ideas keep thinking it's going up just using 1 or 2 patterns - I have to drown out the confirmation basis and just be objective about this.
The weekly SMA still shows we are overall bullish. But completing a wave C to $17k will force the price to meet the 200 SMA, complete the H+S, complete Wave 4, touch several long-term (starting all the way back to 2010) trend lines and STILL BE BULLISH, because we'd then start the Wave 5 onto $100k+. Wave 1 ended at $13k, so we'd still be within Elliott wave rules ending wave 4 at $17k.
The price action in the blue circle will determine if it surpasses the 768 retracement level and punches through the neckline and confirm the wave C down to $17k.
Unlike some others posting ideas, I am not relying on just 1 or 2 patterns to make a decision, I have drawn every pattern I know from hourly to weekly timeframes and as the price breaks each pattern I erase it. So far my gut is telling me a Wave C down to $17k as at least 90% of patterns I've drawn point down, but it is hard when the chorus of people here giving ideas keep thinking it's going up just using 1 or 2 patterns - I have to drown out the confirmation basis and just be objective about this.
The weekly SMA still shows we are overall bullish. But completing a wave C to $17k will force the price to meet the 200 SMA, complete the H+S, complete Wave 4, touch several long-term (starting all the way back to 2010) trend lines and STILL BE BULLISH, because we'd then start the Wave 5 onto $100k+. Wave 1 ended at $13k, so we'd still be within Elliott wave rules ending wave 4 at $17k.
Comment:
Sorry, the white line was not the neckline. The neckline is even higher than the white line. The white line is my long-term trend line, and I got mixed up. I had erased my neckline and not realized, hence my confusion.
Comment:
apologies, the white line is not the neckline, it is a long-term trend line dating back to 2008. I had deleted the neckline and got confused. The blue circle is still the decision area because it determines whether we go below the 786 Fib retracement level. We have touched it already.