🚀 Cautious BTC Bulls Scouting Weekly Higher Low

Hello! I am enTHUZed an educator specializing in the Strength Trading System.

🚀 BTC has begun weekly consolidation confirming the first daily down trend since December. The most likely scenario on this pullback is a weekly higher low vs the previous weekly low at 16,270. We remain “Cautious Bulls” with price currently holding support at the 4h 200 EMA. It is important to note the weekly “Bull Zone” (where price is more likely to rechallenge the highs) is 21.2-20.3K. Currently BTC is in a monthly downtrend, weekly uptrend, daily & 12h downtrend, and the 4h is currently attempting a trend change for the bulls. The current first 12h oversold conditions trending the 4h 200 EMA is a spot to scout a mid-term local low. If BTC loses 4h 200 EMA dynamic support we will be scouting a potential weekly higher low at first daily oversold conditions (RSI below 32%) visually speaking between the 8h-12h 200 EMA between 20.5-20K. What matters is the pullback and what is most important about this price consolidation is identifying the most likely weekly scenario on the next bounce. There is a dramatic difference between weekly higher highs seeking 25K to confirm the first monthly uptrend since 2021 and confirming the first weekly downtrend since November of 2022 putting bear market lower lows back in the conversation.

✅IMO: We have witnessed an unprecedented parabolic short squeeze off the lows which I have coined as a “Bull Swan Event”. In this move price Bull Ripped in an unsustainable fashion taking very little time to consolidate and has printed two notable lack of support zones. The first being below 22.6K and the second below 20.5K. What matters is where we find a local low during this weekly consolidation. Everyone needs to keep in mind it is very likely BTC will print a weekly higher low vs 15.5K. It is a red flag for the bulls that first 4h oversold conditions did not confirm the weekly higher low.

☑️ Personally: I am finding the most clarity on the 4h and 12h timeframes. If it appears more likely that BTC is going to hold the 4h 200 EMA dynamic support I will be scaling into long positions with lower high retracement targets. Referring to the Green List tickers there are three categories of AltCoins right now:
1. Those weaker coins that have broken to 4h lower lows from the initial pullback (ATOM, AVAX, AXS),
2. Those that have held the lows of the initial pullback potentially setting up for 4h trend changes for the bulls (BTC, DOGE, ETH)
3. More bullish coins better positioned to confirm 4h uptrends (APE, ICP, SHIB).
I am currently seeking a confluence of simultaneously being oversold at a the relevant dynamic 200 EMA support (currently the 4h) with adequate Price Discovery Pivots to gives us greater confidence in this support level. My bias is BTC weekly lower highs thus I am currently targeting lower highs for my longs. Almost all my Green List tickers remain red on the short side. It is very likely on the next bounce I will be scouting 4-12h bearishly divergent price discovery pivots to average up my shorts. My criteria to enter oversold longs is limited to the increasingly fewer AltCoins. If the 4h 200 EMA fails to provide support the next place I would scout long entries would be first daily oversold conditions.

📍 Simple Bull Statement: If BTC finds a weekly low above 20.3K and bounces to weekly higher highs breaking 25.2K and closes above the weekly 200 EMA this would confirm the first monthly uptrend since 2021 making it very likely the Bear Market low for this cycle is set at 15.5K.

The Bear Case (Macroeconomic Fundamentals): The 2023 bullish price action was the result of a parabolic short squeeze off the lows seeking the weekly 200 EMA and monthly bearish double top at around 25K . Please note the weekly 38% retracement is at 28K. Once the remaining bears are fully liquidated price will resume the monthly downtrend potentially seeking monthly lower lows. The Bulls have proved nothing until price pulls back and prints a weekly higher low. “Don’t fight the FED” terminal interest rates continue to rise. The DXY is currently seeking a monthly higher low and has recently broken to daily higher highs. Both the NAS100 & SPX500 have potentially topped and have recently confirmed daily downtrends. BTC is more likely to follow the traditional market indices on the macro.
📍 Simple Bear Statement: If BTC fails to hold a weekly bullish retracement level (38-50%) during this weekly consolidation (currently between 21.2 – 20.3K) bear market lower lows are back in the conversation.

👉 It is important to note:
1. First BTC 4h oversold conditions did not lead to a bounce.
2. The DXY is finally showing some signs of life attempting to confirm a daily uptrend. We have known the most likely scenario for the DXY was to print a monthly higher low compared to 89.5. It is likely the DXY monthly higher low will coincide with BTC’s local high.
3. The NAS100 & SPX500 have both confirmed daily downtrends for the first time since December and have begun weekly consolidation.

*️⃣ Make your own trade decisions, I am only an educator on the Strength Trading System