As Bitcoin continues to fall, we have to watch for a lower low. As I've said so many times, the downtrend is still intact. BTC never made a higher high. Even in December, I warned that if BTC rallied to the 10,000 area, it would still be nothing more than a lower low, since the October high was 10540. In Febrauary, BTC rallied to 10483, and that's technically a lower low. So, at this point, I'm looking for BTC to print a lower low. The last major low was 6430, and that low was printed in December. So, while BTC did enjoy a two month rally, the downtrend remains intact, and we should see a lower low, below 6430 if the downtrend continues.
Not only has price fallen below the 50 and 200 day moving averages, it has also now broken down below the 50 week moving average.
Looking at the MACD, you can see that it is rolling over to form a bearish crossover here on the weekly chart, and it's about to fall back below the MACD zero line. If you recall from my past analyses, I showed how when BTC falls below the weekly zero line on the MACD, it generally ends up in a fall of 60-70% within a few months. This recent breakdown below the zero line in December was an anomaly, because it was able to quickly recover above the zero line, which has never happened before in the history of Bitcoin on the weekly time-frame. So, that is what produced the rally from December to February. However, it appears that the recovery wasn't sustainable, as we can see price is rolling back over, with the MACD falling back below the zero line.
So, while everyone was screaming about how wrong my analysis was, in time, you will probably find that it was accurate, just as you do with all of my analyses. Price never moves in a straight line, and sometimes it takes time for analyses to play out — especially when we're looking at the weekly time-frame.
At the moment, I think there is a high probability that (in the coming weeks) BTC will retest the 200 week moving average (in purple) which is currently in the 5500 range.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Not only has price fallen below the 50 and 200 day moving averages, it has also now broken down below the 50 week moving average.
Looking at the MACD, you can see that it is rolling over to form a bearish crossover here on the weekly chart, and it's about to fall back below the MACD zero line. If you recall from my past analyses, I showed how when BTC falls below the weekly zero line on the MACD, it generally ends up in a fall of 60-70% within a few months. This recent breakdown below the zero line in December was an anomaly, because it was able to quickly recover above the zero line, which has never happened before in the history of Bitcoin on the weekly time-frame. So, that is what produced the rally from December to February. However, it appears that the recovery wasn't sustainable, as we can see price is rolling back over, with the MACD falling back below the zero line.
So, while everyone was screaming about how wrong my analysis was, in time, you will probably find that it was accurate, just as you do with all of my analyses. Price never moves in a straight line, and sometimes it takes time for analyses to play out — especially when we're looking at the weekly time-frame.
At the moment, I think there is a high probability that (in the coming weeks) BTC will retest the 200 week moving average (in purple) which is currently in the 5500 range.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-