Bitcoin Remains in A Downtrend, But Could Attempt A Breakout!
BTC has been in a clear downtrend since the recent high of 13,800. It broke down below the 21 week MA (in blue) which is not characteristic of former BTC bull markets. I know that in 2013, BTC broke down below the 21 week MA, It also broke down below the 200 MA (in purple,) which has never happened after the start of a bull market in BTC. We have also had a death cross on the chart, which has never happened after the start of a bull market in Bitcoin. Keep in mind, BTC has already rallied 330% from the December 2018 low. It's not like these things are happening, and we're just now entering a bull market. My point is, these things are uncharacteristic signs of weakness, and they shouldn't be ignored. Now, does that mean that the bull thesis is doomed? Not yet. As I've shown in other analyses, we could be in a massive bull flag right now.
Looking at the chart, you can see that we're in a very clear downtrend. What's nice, is that we have several technical features to watch, in order to catch the next major move. BTC could find support here on the 200 MA, and attempt an upside breakout from this downtrend channel (in blue.) Or, BTC could break down below the 200 and 50 week moving averages again, and head lower for a retest of the 61.8% retrace (in green.) If we close a daily candle below the 200 MA, that would be a very negative sign. If we close a candle below the 50 MA, that would be even MORE negative, and that would pretty much guarantee a retest of the 618. If BTC holds teh 200, I expect we could see a strong breakout above the downtrend channel. However, the 21 week MA (in blue) is just above that, so price will have to contend with it immediately as potential resistance. If we get above that, and especially if BTC rises above 14000, then I think BTC will probably test the all time high by the end of the year. So, what happens here is really important in determining the direction of the next move. There is a possibility of an upside breakout, but BTC has shown weakness that it has never shown in the middle of a bull market. That is very concerning, and it suggests that we have been in a massive bear market rally, but anything is possible, especially if BTC gets back above that 21 week MA (in blue.)
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at the chart, you can see that we're in a very clear downtrend. What's nice, is that we have several technical features to watch, in order to catch the next major move. BTC could find support here on the 200 MA, and attempt an upside breakout from this downtrend channel (in blue.) Or, BTC could break down below the 200 and 50 week moving averages again, and head lower for a retest of the 61.8% retrace (in green.) If we close a daily candle below the 200 MA, that would be a very negative sign. If we close a candle below the 50 MA, that would be even MORE negative, and that would pretty much guarantee a retest of the 618. If BTC holds teh 200, I expect we could see a strong breakout above the downtrend channel. However, the 21 week MA (in blue) is just above that, so price will have to contend with it immediately as potential resistance. If we get above that, and especially if BTC rises above 14000, then I think BTC will probably test the all time high by the end of the year. So, what happens here is really important in determining the direction of the next move. There is a possibility of an upside breakout, but BTC has shown weakness that it has never shown in the middle of a bull market. That is very concerning, and it suggests that we have been in a massive bear market rally, but anything is possible, especially if BTC gets back above that 21 week MA (in blue.)
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-