BEARISH CASE; In my previous posts, I warned BTC may retraced to 22k, the weekly wma200. I still have a bias towards 22k.
However, if you measure the height of the Jan2022 rally from 33k to 48200, BTC may even retrace 200% Fib down to 18k. A diamond continuation to 18k is also a high probability since it was the midline of the red consolidation box of Dec2020 which launched the 2021 big rally to 65k.
BULLISH CASE: if this is going to be a big diamond reversal pattern, BTC should not break below the May2022 low of 25338. Candles sometimes break a little below the pattern to hunt for stop losses before totally reversing back up.
Wave IV, an expanded flat, continues till BTC bottoms out. If 28k is not recovered in the next few days, 25338 may not hold. There may be a capitulation leading to this Wednesday or up to Friday after impt FOMC announcements & options expiration. Many are expecting the FED to be more hawkish after the higher inflation that came out. 22k will definitely be a good place for a relief rally before BTC makes a final lower low at 18k for the divergence before a bottom reversal.
BTC dominance continues higher. In the downturn, Altcoins may loss 2x more against BTC.
Not trading advice
However, if you measure the height of the Jan2022 rally from 33k to 48200, BTC may even retrace 200% Fib down to 18k. A diamond continuation to 18k is also a high probability since it was the midline of the red consolidation box of Dec2020 which launched the 2021 big rally to 65k.
BULLISH CASE: if this is going to be a big diamond reversal pattern, BTC should not break below the May2022 low of 25338. Candles sometimes break a little below the pattern to hunt for stop losses before totally reversing back up.
Wave IV, an expanded flat, continues till BTC bottoms out. If 28k is not recovered in the next few days, 25338 may not hold. There may be a capitulation leading to this Wednesday or up to Friday after impt FOMC announcements & options expiration. Many are expecting the FED to be more hawkish after the higher inflation that came out. 22k will definitely be a good place for a relief rally before BTC makes a final lower low at 18k for the divergence before a bottom reversal.
BTC dominance continues higher. In the downturn, Altcoins may loss 2x more against BTC.
Not trading advice