Today we shall give a go at timing the Bitcoin cycle once more. This year I have been correct in my perspective going as far back as January 2022. I had been eyeing the Bitcoin cycle bottom in May , check it out below.
Even executing the best trade of my career yet, riding that short down straight into capitulation. It's been a good year so far so the question is what happens next.
So right now Bitcoin is sitting on this diagonal trendline that started off the bullrun late 2020 , if this holds we could see upside movement the next 10 months. Personally I don't like diagonal trend lines most of the time they fail so I don't trade them.
If it does hold , what could play out is a move up to the top of the 8/1 Gann Fann sometime June 2023 which also aligns with 0.618 fib.
"hint" , sell in June 2023"
If prices come up to 50k june 2023 and get rejected off the 8/1 we will then start the shift back down to 25k sometime July 2024 ,why 25k? well if 25k is the cycle bottom Bitcoin always comes down and retests the cycle bottom and creates a double bottom before the bullrun starts. This has happened every cycle even in 2011 , take a look
We always come back down to retest.
Last cycle the relief rally after the cycle bottom was rejected at the 0.618.
This is why I have marked June 2023 as a potential date of a macro shift downwards because the 0.618 and top of the 8/1 Gann Fann line up closely .
If Bitcoin did create a double bottom then we could say 25k hit on the 3/1 Gann sometime July 2024 and then the cycle double bottom is complete, after that sometime sept 2025 to break the 8/1 Gann and start the next Bullrun which would peak sometime Oct 2026.
The question everyone has been debating for weeks now is , if the bottom is in !
My opinion is that it is in fact in , the herd are waiting for lower prices , there is mass fear in the world , CPI is 8.6% highest since 1981 , everyone is scared to buy , everyone is eyeing the 200 weekly and when everyone starts eyeing the same thing what tends to happen , the opposite .
I'm going to go against the herd on this one and say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is most likely in , did that capitulation wick feel like a bottom? no it didn't but guess what didn't feel like a top either , Bitcoin at 65k in April 2021.
The bottom never feels like a bottom and the top never feels like a top if it did timing the market would be easy. Why do most traders expect price to hit the 200 weekly like past cycles when it didn't hit the top of any band this cycle as a top , we didn't even get a blow off top.
I go over this TA on the mayer multiple and how we are at a historically low ratio for Bitcoin price.
So right now Bitcoin is sitting on this diagonal trendline that started off the bullrun late 2020 , if this holds we could see upside movement the next 10 months. Personally I don't like diagonal trend lines most of the time they fail so I don't trade them.
If it does hold , what could play out is a move up to the top of the 8/1 Gann Fann sometime June 2023 which also aligns with 0.618 fib.
"hint" , sell in June 2023"
If prices come up to 50k june 2023 and get rejected off the 8/1 we will then start the shift back down to 25k sometime July 2024 ,why 25k? well if 25k is the cycle bottom Bitcoin always comes down and retests the cycle bottom and creates a double bottom before the bullrun starts. This has happened every cycle even in 2011 , take a look
We always come back down to retest.
Last cycle the relief rally after the cycle bottom was rejected at the 0.618.
This is why I have marked June 2023 as a potential date of a macro shift downwards because the 0.618 and top of the 8/1 Gann Fann line up closely .
If Bitcoin did create a double bottom then we could say 25k hit on the 3/1 Gann sometime July 2024 and then the cycle double bottom is complete, after that sometime sept 2025 to break the 8/1 Gann and start the next Bullrun which would peak sometime Oct 2026.
The question everyone has been debating for weeks now is , if the bottom is in !
My opinion is that it is in fact in , the herd are waiting for lower prices , there is mass fear in the world , CPI is 8.6% highest since 1981 , everyone is scared to buy , everyone is eyeing the 200 weekly and when everyone starts eyeing the same thing what tends to happen , the opposite .
I'm going to go against the herd on this one and say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is most likely in , did that capitulation wick feel like a bottom? no it didn't but guess what didn't feel like a top either , Bitcoin at 65k in April 2021.
The bottom never feels like a bottom and the top never feels like a top if it did timing the market would be easy. Why do most traders expect price to hit the 200 weekly like past cycles when it didn't hit the top of any band this cycle as a top , we didn't even get a blow off top.
I go over this TA on the mayer multiple and how we are at a historically low ratio for Bitcoin price.
Comment:
If the trendline does break then end of year rally up to June 2023 would be the case