BTC is at a major resistance level just below $50,000. This red resistance zone box is the weekly resistance level that also coincides with the 0.618 retracement level.
While price action has been strong over the past month, there is still the death cross of the 50MA and 200MA on the daily time frame that Bitcoin has to contend with.
Typically this death cross precedes a multi-month downtrend, and if BTC cannot break above this range or the 60k highs, then the chance for this to change over to a golden cross is unlikely.
With the massive distribution that spanned from February through May, and the +54% drop that ensued as a result, it is reasonable to say this past month’s movement is most likely little more than a relief rally.
We can also assume with the amount of newcomers into the market from January 2021 onward who have had their long positions underwater, are looking to get out as soon as price gets high enough for them to break even or just take a small loss. The crypto fear&greed index is showing us that the market sentiment is turning greedy again, which is to be expected as price gets closer to the all-time highs, which should help provide liquidity for those looking to sell/re-distribute.
This is the time to be securing some profits if you went long at 30k, or sell off any BTC you bought in this range earlier this year.
Good luck!
While price action has been strong over the past month, there is still the death cross of the 50MA and 200MA on the daily time frame that Bitcoin has to contend with.
Typically this death cross precedes a multi-month downtrend, and if BTC cannot break above this range or the 60k highs, then the chance for this to change over to a golden cross is unlikely.
With the massive distribution that spanned from February through May, and the +54% drop that ensued as a result, it is reasonable to say this past month’s movement is most likely little more than a relief rally.
We can also assume with the amount of newcomers into the market from January 2021 onward who have had their long positions underwater, are looking to get out as soon as price gets high enough for them to break even or just take a small loss. The crypto fear&greed index is showing us that the market sentiment is turning greedy again, which is to be expected as price gets closer to the all-time highs, which should help provide liquidity for those looking to sell/re-distribute.
This is the time to be securing some profits if you went long at 30k, or sell off any BTC you bought in this range earlier this year.
Good luck!
Comment:
It looks like a rising wedge is forming, and the True Trend Indicator is showing bearish divergences that can also be seen on the 6 hour time frame. This would be invalidated by a move past the resistance level.
Comment:
Rising wedge moved a little, but still valid. We also just got a bearish divergence on 6 hour time frame on the True Trend Indicator. This last push above the 0.618 is looking like a fake breakout, if it drops below this to end the weekly candle, then chances of a bigger drop in the coming days/weeks is very likely.
Comment:
Price did move slightly higher after the last update, however that daily candle ended with a pretty long wick to the upside showing there is still significant rejections from this 50k range. Idea is still very much in play, even if we see some wicks pushing to 51/52k that should be the max we see. Idea will be invalidated by a push higher than that range, but so far it's looking like the very top of my resistance box is going to keep price down.
Comment:
Something else that is interesting to note, check out these comparisons. The charts are weekly charts for the beginning of bear markets on BTC, with the moving averages set to daily time frame to show the 50MA/200MA death cross . The indicator below is my custom true trend indicator which is currently showing eerily similar patterns to the previous bear markets as I have pointed out. If history repeats itself, then it will confirm this is simply the first bear market rally, and the market is looking to get out of bitcoin at these prices.
Comment:
This idea is still valid, however now that price broke above the 50k resistance zone, we need to see if that holds as support. If it breaks down, then we can anticipate further downside for the coming days/weeks
Comment:
This idea is still very much valid, we could potentially see price come back up to re-test that resistance zone again before continuing to drop
Comment:
And just as I described in my previous comment on the 14th, we should see price come back up to re-test the resistance zone before continuing to drop. This is exactly what happened and now we should see a continuation of downside.
