I should preface and say that these 3 different predictions are based off a similar price action that occurred between June and July 2017, where the sentiment for BTC was very similar to the current sentiment we face here in April and May 2024. I believe that a lot of the run up of this bull market for the next year or so will be similar to 2017 where positive news for BTC keeps coming. I know some argue the ETFs don't play a big role in price action, but I strongly disagree long term. If BTC has taught me anything throughout the years it's that information and knowledge of the asset has only strengthened its fundamentals and allowed it to prosper to what it is today. When individuals truly understand the benefit of having BTC in their portfolio (or even retirement), it's a notion/idea that can't be easily shaken off. Given that interest rates are likely to be cut later this year and inflation showing no signs of slowing down, I think it's impossible for me to be bearish on BTC. The largest asset managers in the world will not stop hyping up BTC and their ETFs. This all being said, I was very wrong about the short term price action and am re-evaluating possible scenarios that may play out in the next 2 months.
June-July 2017 was a moment in time where BTC just pressed up against $3,000, got rejected, and it took an entire month for it to eventually blow straight through. While the overall sentiment seems very positive for BTC right now, the one thing we cannot mentally get past is that $70k barrier. And while we have passed it, it was not held convincingly. Maybe we got too ahead of ourselves thinking this could keep running up with no pullback- I know I definitely did.
I'm more bullish than I ever have been, but I think recognizing that the market does not move as fast as we always want it to is important. For ETFs, these products take time to prosper in markets. Luckily for us, the crypto markets move quick (relative to other markets).
So here are 3 bullish scenarios. If anyone watched, that dump last night was aggressive. This is trader's territory now. If there is no bounce within the coming days (I don't expect there to be a big one), then we will continue bleeding out to $61-59K. I think it's going to take some real FOMO to be witnessed if we want this bounce to be grand. These bull market cycles have taught me that just one strong bounce alongside ongoing positive news can completely switch the narrative and price action. Because the truth is, there has been almost no bad news for BTC since January. If there has been, please enlighten me. Because most of the negative Crypto news I read is related to other coins (worth noting I hold ETH as well).
So breathe in, hold it.... and breathe out. We will be okay. This bull market is just getting started. The positive sentiment, good news, and true value of BTC are all very real. Honestly I hope I'm wrong and we shoot up ASAP. Unfortunately, price action I don't think is always necessarily timed out accordingly with factors such as sentiment and news. Let the short term traders do their thing, and HODLers will still end up rewarded in the longer term.
But as always, BTC has humbled and continues to humble me. Good luck traders and HODLers!
June-July 2017 was a moment in time where BTC just pressed up against $3,000, got rejected, and it took an entire month for it to eventually blow straight through. While the overall sentiment seems very positive for BTC right now, the one thing we cannot mentally get past is that $70k barrier. And while we have passed it, it was not held convincingly. Maybe we got too ahead of ourselves thinking this could keep running up with no pullback- I know I definitely did.
I'm more bullish than I ever have been, but I think recognizing that the market does not move as fast as we always want it to is important. For ETFs, these products take time to prosper in markets. Luckily for us, the crypto markets move quick (relative to other markets).
So here are 3 bullish scenarios. If anyone watched, that dump last night was aggressive. This is trader's territory now. If there is no bounce within the coming days (I don't expect there to be a big one), then we will continue bleeding out to $61-59K. I think it's going to take some real FOMO to be witnessed if we want this bounce to be grand. These bull market cycles have taught me that just one strong bounce alongside ongoing positive news can completely switch the narrative and price action. Because the truth is, there has been almost no bad news for BTC since January. If there has been, please enlighten me. Because most of the negative Crypto news I read is related to other coins (worth noting I hold ETH as well).
So breathe in, hold it.... and breathe out. We will be okay. This bull market is just getting started. The positive sentiment, good news, and true value of BTC are all very real. Honestly I hope I'm wrong and we shoot up ASAP. Unfortunately, price action I don't think is always necessarily timed out accordingly with factors such as sentiment and news. Let the short term traders do their thing, and HODLers will still end up rewarded in the longer term.
But as always, BTC has humbled and continues to humble me. Good luck traders and HODLers!
Comment:
Looks like we're getting the red timeline! I will be buying more :D
Comment:
I hope everyone bought during the past 2 months!! Here we gooooooooooo
On a serious note the potential ETH ETF news has been shocking me today- I strongly believe this battle with the SEC is much bigger than just Ethereum. Many other altcoins have been eyeballing this battle much more than they would like to admit because the truth is that any positive litigation that comes from the government into the crypto sphere is massively bullish for everyone. This includes BTC (sorry maxis). If it's any consolation to BTC maxis, even if the ETH ETF gets approved I am not super bullish on it? Mostly just based on the fact that the ETH ETF hasn't been super popular in Hong Kong vs. the BTC ETFs. Who knows though, I'm rooting for ETH just as much as I'm rooting for BTC. Both objectively benefit each other's existence.
As for BTC, its price action almost feels too predictable at times- I really hope I'm not jinxing myself haha. My personal favorite indicator is the mining profit amount vs. BTC exchange price. I strongly encourage any new HODLers to watch this as the years go on. It's incredibly effective at predicting when we may see some price action and is also directly tied in the halvings. And I think everyone in crypto is very aware that every single coin follows BTC- it's too hard to make the argument against that at this point in time. I do believe altcoins can sometimes act as a catalyst for BTC, but most liquidity starts at BTC.
Despite everything I just wrote, one could also make the argument that SAB121 and FIT121 are playing a massive role in all of this as well. But anyways, time to sit tight and enjoy the fireworks :D
On a serious note the potential ETH ETF news has been shocking me today- I strongly believe this battle with the SEC is much bigger than just Ethereum. Many other altcoins have been eyeballing this battle much more than they would like to admit because the truth is that any positive litigation that comes from the government into the crypto sphere is massively bullish for everyone. This includes BTC (sorry maxis). If it's any consolation to BTC maxis, even if the ETH ETF gets approved I am not super bullish on it? Mostly just based on the fact that the ETH ETF hasn't been super popular in Hong Kong vs. the BTC ETFs. Who knows though, I'm rooting for ETH just as much as I'm rooting for BTC. Both objectively benefit each other's existence.
As for BTC, its price action almost feels too predictable at times- I really hope I'm not jinxing myself haha. My personal favorite indicator is the mining profit amount vs. BTC exchange price. I strongly encourage any new HODLers to watch this as the years go on. It's incredibly effective at predicting when we may see some price action and is also directly tied in the halvings. And I think everyone in crypto is very aware that every single coin follows BTC- it's too hard to make the argument against that at this point in time. I do believe altcoins can sometimes act as a catalyst for BTC, but most liquidity starts at BTC.
Despite everything I just wrote, one could also make the argument that SAB121 and FIT121 are playing a massive role in all of this as well. But anyways, time to sit tight and enjoy the fireworks :D