Good afternoon, an update on BTC here since there has been a good pullback now from the highs. Despite the inflows into the BTC ETF's, which I see as extremely bullish, I don't think this changes the structure of BTC and the timing of a retracement before a major upside swing. The next major impulse would arguably be the biggest of the cycle and those take time to happen, i.e. I don't see BTC putting in continuation in the next week or 2, that would simply be too quick in my opinion compared to other retracements in this cycle so far. It doesn't make sense whether you consider it a major retracement or not.
I think BTC should break at least 40k which would provide a 20%+ move from the 49k high which would be consistent with the other retracements so far this cycle. I have drawn a macro fib channel for the PA (Price Action) so far since January 23 giving three taps on the lows and 2 taps on the highs. We have seen a break of market structure on the Daily timeframe and although I still think there is a likely bounce either from here or from slightly lower around 38/39k I favour a rejection in the 44 to 45k price area. There is a large Daily FVG (Fair Value Gap) in that area giving an imbalance of price delivery in that vicinity which would be a good area to retest. If this were to happen then i would be looking for price to continue its new short term bearish trend and create new impulses to the downside. This provides price areas to consider for retracement around 38-39k, 35-36k, 31.5-33.5k, 27-28.5k. There are lower targets than that, however, I think even a move to 27-28.5k is unlikely and would maybe only be a wick capitulation style event.
A move back down to the 32k area retests the major break out BTC had in this cycle above an area that took 6 months to break. It was significant resistance, it makes sense to retest as significant support. This happened in the last two cycles and I see no reason to discount this as a favoured scenario with or without the ETF. If BTC puts in a bounce and rejection to create a lower high in the coming weeks that will provide more structure to hone in deeper on these price points, however, for now I need to see more PA before I can validate/invalidate scenarios further.
I think BTC should break at least 40k which would provide a 20%+ move from the 49k high which would be consistent with the other retracements so far this cycle. I have drawn a macro fib channel for the PA (Price Action) so far since January 23 giving three taps on the lows and 2 taps on the highs. We have seen a break of market structure on the Daily timeframe and although I still think there is a likely bounce either from here or from slightly lower around 38/39k I favour a rejection in the 44 to 45k price area. There is a large Daily FVG (Fair Value Gap) in that area giving an imbalance of price delivery in that vicinity which would be a good area to retest. If this were to happen then i would be looking for price to continue its new short term bearish trend and create new impulses to the downside. This provides price areas to consider for retracement around 38-39k, 35-36k, 31.5-33.5k, 27-28.5k. There are lower targets than that, however, I think even a move to 27-28.5k is unlikely and would maybe only be a wick capitulation style event.
A move back down to the 32k area retests the major break out BTC had in this cycle above an area that took 6 months to break. It was significant resistance, it makes sense to retest as significant support. This happened in the last two cycles and I see no reason to discount this as a favoured scenario with or without the ETF. If BTC puts in a bounce and rejection to create a lower high in the coming weeks that will provide more structure to hone in deeper on these price points, however, for now I need to see more PA before I can validate/invalidate scenarios further.