BTC is printing another strange drifting staccato structure that seems to be unique to crypto which unlike other markets does not follow typical regression - capitulation principles. But with that in mind from July and September I am (slowly) learning to not see this structure as capitulatory, but rather as neutral-bullish.
The main red flag for it being a pre-capitulatory structure is that it is holding this area too long. In other markets such structures are a pause for breath before further cliff falling, not a pause for dinner and an overnight stay with a cooked breakfast in the morning.
Daily RSI is now printing clear bullish divergence having touched the lower oversold band.
Also relevant I think is that SOW in D and A are holding price well.
So I think we'll either see a bounce right in this area, or a slump to SOW in A before a bounce.
If price gets to SOW in A, looking to past BTC antics I would not be surprised to see a sudden capitulation fakeout before a bounce. In fact that may be the most probable outcome.
This is a good time to look at alts and crypto related stocks, many may be getting ready to pop.
That said I dont rule out a collapse but for me thats probably around a 20% chance now and getting less every day BTC holds this area. But i'd like to see some bounce before entering any trades. I won't be catching any falling knives.
Please note - although I may enter a few trades, this is just for my development really. A more patient trader will do well to simply find the bottom which I think is a very long way down and I won't be entering a significant % until then. Ultimately if BTC does bounce it is a dead cat bounce, but that may be reflected with big bounces and some higher highs in alts.
Not advice.
The main red flag for it being a pre-capitulatory structure is that it is holding this area too long. In other markets such structures are a pause for breath before further cliff falling, not a pause for dinner and an overnight stay with a cooked breakfast in the morning.
Daily RSI is now printing clear bullish divergence having touched the lower oversold band.
Also relevant I think is that SOW in D and A are holding price well.
So I think we'll either see a bounce right in this area, or a slump to SOW in A before a bounce.
If price gets to SOW in A, looking to past BTC antics I would not be surprised to see a sudden capitulation fakeout before a bounce. In fact that may be the most probable outcome.
This is a good time to look at alts and crypto related stocks, many may be getting ready to pop.
That said I dont rule out a collapse but for me thats probably around a 20% chance now and getting less every day BTC holds this area. But i'd like to see some bounce before entering any trades. I won't be catching any falling knives.
Please note - although I may enter a few trades, this is just for my development really. A more patient trader will do well to simply find the bottom which I think is a very long way down and I won't be entering a significant % until then. Ultimately if BTC does bounce it is a dead cat bounce, but that may be reflected with big bounces and some higher highs in alts.
Not advice.
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More exotic lower rank charts welcome.
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In case its not obvious, this is a short term analysis of a potential bounce. 20K is coming - nothing changed there.
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BTC found support on this long yellow trendline all the way back from from a previous peak and now pushing against resistance of this red resistant trendline.
Close to breaking out here. If it does continue passed this upper trendline it should easily get back to $54K. Either way it looks like the bounce is on.
Close to breaking out here. If it does continue passed this upper trendline it should easily get back to $54K. Either way it looks like the bounce is on.
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Looks to be consolidating above the trendline.
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Indexes are on a HL bounce which should be a green light for BTC bounce which has now drifted into upper territory of BB bands.
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Indexes are on a HL bounce which should be a green light for BTC which is drifting into upper territory of BB bands.
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BTC reversing but a key detail here I think is that it is consolidating and finding support above the trendline that was previous resistance. As long as it stays above - even if it trickles down towards SOW in D support then BTC is in good shape for the bounce. Falling back down would be bearish.
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+ a break of SOW in D would be bearish.*
Comment:
BTC found support and has had a second impulse. The bounce is on - blue guppy says so. Should get back to 54K without fuss, maybe 57, maybe a little more. If it repeats May retracement ratio it'll hit 61K - we'll see.
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