BTC has been correction proof for the past few weeks. Any sign of weakness has been followed by a rip to the upside. For the last few days, the price has been pushing on the top side of the intermediate channel. Daily RSI is finally showing some divergence, but price action remains very strong. Unless, there is a sudden multi thousand dollar dump, there is no danger of a sustained bear market at this point. In my last post, I laid out the similarities and differences between the 2017-2018 run and so far, BTC is not quite like the last bull market. I don't believe the current bull market is out of gas just yet, but a short term pullback to recharge the momentum is probable in the coming few weeks. This is what I am looking at right now.
1. Daily RSI is forming divergences. But it is not showing signs of major correction yet. There needs to be a few more hits of higher highs in price and lower highs in RSI to start preparing for longer term evasive actions. Which also means BTC can keep grinding upwards in the smaller channel and keep getting support at daily 10 EMA before a major pullback.
2. Couple of posts ago, I mentioned about daily 50 EMA and 50 SMA interplay. When 50 EMA crosses over 50 SMA, it is a major bullish signal. However, during the makings of the crossover, the price can sometimes move down towards the 20 EMA level. Right now, daily 50 EMA and SMA are getting very close to get a crossover. 20 EMA pushing 42k level and moving up every day. It can be a major support level for any short term pullback.
3. Looking at volume during upward and downward moves. Volume is decreasing at the breakouts and increasing at the break downs. Even thought this is not a bear market signal, it does show some cracks in the momentum.
4. Looking at the FIB extension levels. a short term correction can get initiated at each of the extension level. Moving the stop loss up each day to adjust plan for profit taking.
1. Daily RSI is forming divergences. But it is not showing signs of major correction yet. There needs to be a few more hits of higher highs in price and lower highs in RSI to start preparing for longer term evasive actions. Which also means BTC can keep grinding upwards in the smaller channel and keep getting support at daily 10 EMA before a major pullback.
2. Couple of posts ago, I mentioned about daily 50 EMA and 50 SMA interplay. When 50 EMA crosses over 50 SMA, it is a major bullish signal. However, during the makings of the crossover, the price can sometimes move down towards the 20 EMA level. Right now, daily 50 EMA and SMA are getting very close to get a crossover. 20 EMA pushing 42k level and moving up every day. It can be a major support level for any short term pullback.
3. Looking at volume during upward and downward moves. Volume is decreasing at the breakouts and increasing at the break downs. Even thought this is not a bear market signal, it does show some cracks in the momentum.
4. Looking at the FIB extension levels. a short term correction can get initiated at each of the extension level. Moving the stop loss up each day to adjust plan for profit taking.
