Next volatility period: around February 15-20
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If you can't predict the direction of BTC, if you don't know whether it will rise further or fall in the future, why are you analyzing charts?
Through chart analysis, we are traders trying to make a profit by trading.
In order to trade, you need to create a trading strategy and react to price movements.
At this time, the important thing is that you need a trading strategy to reduce losses, not a trading strategy to gain greater profits.
A trading strategy created to gain greater profits will act as a disadvantage in psychological warfare, and if these psychological instability factors accumulate, you will eventually end the transaction with a loss.
---------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT chart)
I think what you need to pay close attention to in the charts above is the movement of the StochRSI indicator.
Currently, only the 1W chart has failed to enter the overbought section.
When next week's candle is created, it is necessary to check whether the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart enters the overbought zone.
When the StochRSI indicator falls from an overbought zone, you need to check at which point or zone it is supported or resisted.
---------------------------------------
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
USDT and USDC are still on the rise.
Although USDC has been showing a gap decline since February 11, it is expected to eventually maintain an upward trend if it remains above 26.525B, which was an important point.
A rise in the gap between USDT and USDC means that funds are flowing into the coin market.
Conversely, a falling gap means that funds are flowing out of the coin market.
Therefore, this rise shows that funds are flowing out through USDC.
Since I believe that the increase or decrease of USDT or USDC through trading is expressed as a candle, I believe that the meaning of the gap is the inflow and outflow of funds.
I think that if you know the fund flow in the coin market, you can ultimately know the movement of the coin market.
Accordingly, the movement of the USDT or USDC chart can be said to be an important chart for individual traders to view the fund flow in the coin market.
Among them, I think it is especially important to check the movement of USDT because USDT has the greatest influence on the coin market.
-------------------------------------------------
Once you have confirmed the flow of funds in the coin market, that is, the inflow and outflow of funds, you need to check how the funds flowing into the coin market are moving.
(BTC.D chart)
(USDT.D chart)
Such movements should be confirmed by movements in BTC dominance and USDT dominance.
BTC dominance lets you know whether funds are concentrated towards BTC or altcoins.
Accordingly, a rise in BTC dominance means that funds are being concentrated towards BTC.
To know the overall trend of the coin market, you can find out to some extent by checking the dominance of USDT, which has a great influence on the coin market.
What is important in USDT or USDC charts is that the gap rise continues to occur.
This is because funds will flow into the coin market.
If funds continue to flow in this way, the corresponding dominance will inevitably rise.
Therefore, when looking at the BTC dominance or USDT dominance chart, you should look at whether the current candle is a falling candle or a rising candle rather than the trend.
Otherwise, if you judge the dominance chart as a trend, there is a high possibility of getting incorrect forecasts, so be careful.
The coin market is showing an upward trend as USDT dominance falls below 5.89.
If it falls below 4.97, I think there is a high possibility that the coin market will show a major upward trend.
However, in order for the mainstream upward trend to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must rise in the 56.78-62.47 range or higher and then begin to decline.
If not, it is expected that an altcoin bull market will begin rather than a mainstream bull market.
An altcoin bull market means a bull market in which you can ultimately make a profit no matter what altcoin you buy.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins are likely to hit new highs (ATH).
Therefore, it is necessary to see what BTC dominance looks like in the future.
For an altcoin bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must fall below 50.
-------------------------------------------------- ------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
It is showing a significant rise, rising above the Fibonacci ratio point of 0.618 (44210.08).
The resistance area of this rise, that is, the area that will determine the trend again, is expected to be around the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.886-1.0.
(1W chart)
If you check this in more detail, it is expected to be in the range 53256.64 -66401.82.
However, if it enters the 53256.64 -66401.82 section, the 59370.07 point is expected to be the critical point.
Caution is needed because there is a possibility that the price will rise around 53256.64 and then shake up to break above it.
(1D chart)
What is important to look at in this shakeup is whether there is support around 49676.20.
If it rises around 53256.64 and then falls below 49676.20 and shows resistance, caution is needed as it could lead to a further decline.
The most important indicator to look at in my charts is the MS-Signal indicator, that is, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
If the price stays above this indicator, it will eventually continue its upward trend, otherwise it will show a downward trend.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart shows short-term trends,
The M-Signal indicator on the 1W and 1M charts indicates mid- to long-term trends.
Therefore, you need to identify trends and create a response strategy that matches your trading strategy, that is, your investment period.
Since the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, that is, the M-Signal indicator, passes through the 45135.66-46431.50 range, if it falls to around 46431.50, you should check for support and respond in the short term.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is passing around 41253.4, so an appropriate response is needed.
Both the StochRSI indicator and the BW indicator hit their highest points.
Accordingly, if the price shows a slight decline, it will show a reversal.
However, if the StochRSI indicator does not fall below the overbought range, it means that the strength of the rise is strong, so you must check and respond to support and resistance at the support and resistance points or sections.
In other words, how well you find support and resistance on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is the most important factor required for trading in chart analysis.
No matter how much you can tell the trend through chart analysis, if you ultimately fail to find support and resistance points, trading may proceed in the wrong direction.
Therefore, support and resistance points should be points that anyone can understand and predict.
If you do not explain the interpretation of support and resistance points, it will be difficult to utilize the support and resistance points, so although it may be a good article for chart analysis, it will be an analysis that cannot be used for trading purposes.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click “Boost”.
Have a good day.
-------------------------------------
If you can't predict the direction of BTC, if you don't know whether it will rise further or fall in the future, why are you analyzing charts?
Through chart analysis, we are traders trying to make a profit by trading.
In order to trade, you need to create a trading strategy and react to price movements.
At this time, the important thing is that you need a trading strategy to reduce losses, not a trading strategy to gain greater profits.
A trading strategy created to gain greater profits will act as a disadvantage in psychological warfare, and if these psychological instability factors accumulate, you will eventually end the transaction with a loss.
---------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT chart)
Currently, only the 1W chart has failed to enter the overbought section.
When next week's candle is created, it is necessary to check whether the StochRSI indicator on the 1W chart enters the overbought zone.
When the StochRSI indicator falls from an overbought zone, you need to check at which point or zone it is supported or resisted.
---------------------------------------
(USDT chart)
(USDC chart)
USDT and USDC are still on the rise.
Although USDC has been showing a gap decline since February 11, it is expected to eventually maintain an upward trend if it remains above 26.525B, which was an important point.
A rise in the gap between USDT and USDC means that funds are flowing into the coin market.
Conversely, a falling gap means that funds are flowing out of the coin market.
Therefore, this rise shows that funds are flowing out through USDC.
Since I believe that the increase or decrease of USDT or USDC through trading is expressed as a candle, I believe that the meaning of the gap is the inflow and outflow of funds.
I think that if you know the fund flow in the coin market, you can ultimately know the movement of the coin market.
Accordingly, the movement of the USDT or USDC chart can be said to be an important chart for individual traders to view the fund flow in the coin market.
Among them, I think it is especially important to check the movement of USDT because USDT has the greatest influence on the coin market.
-------------------------------------------------
Once you have confirmed the flow of funds in the coin market, that is, the inflow and outflow of funds, you need to check how the funds flowing into the coin market are moving.
(BTC.D chart)
(USDT.D chart)
Such movements should be confirmed by movements in BTC dominance and USDT dominance.
BTC dominance lets you know whether funds are concentrated towards BTC or altcoins.
Accordingly, a rise in BTC dominance means that funds are being concentrated towards BTC.
To know the overall trend of the coin market, you can find out to some extent by checking the dominance of USDT, which has a great influence on the coin market.
What is important in USDT or USDC charts is that the gap rise continues to occur.
This is because funds will flow into the coin market.
If funds continue to flow in this way, the corresponding dominance will inevitably rise.
Therefore, when looking at the BTC dominance or USDT dominance chart, you should look at whether the current candle is a falling candle or a rising candle rather than the trend.
Otherwise, if you judge the dominance chart as a trend, there is a high possibility of getting incorrect forecasts, so be careful.
The coin market is showing an upward trend as USDT dominance falls below 5.89.
If it falls below 4.97, I think there is a high possibility that the coin market will show a major upward trend.
However, in order for the mainstream upward trend to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must rise in the 56.78-62.47 range or higher and then begin to decline.
If not, it is expected that an altcoin bull market will begin rather than a mainstream bull market.
An altcoin bull market means a bull market in which you can ultimately make a profit no matter what altcoin you buy.
A major bull market refers to a bull market in which most coins are likely to hit new highs (ATH).
Therefore, it is necessary to see what BTC dominance looks like in the future.
For an altcoin bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance must fall below 50.
-------------------------------------------------- ------
(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
The resistance area of this rise, that is, the area that will determine the trend again, is expected to be around the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.886-1.0.
(1W chart)
However, if it enters the 53256.64 -66401.82 section, the 59370.07 point is expected to be the critical point.
Caution is needed because there is a possibility that the price will rise around 53256.64 and then shake up to break above it.
(1D chart)
If it rises around 53256.64 and then falls below 49676.20 and shows resistance, caution is needed as it could lead to a further decline.
The most important indicator to look at in my charts is the MS-Signal indicator, that is, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
If the price stays above this indicator, it will eventually continue its upward trend, otherwise it will show a downward trend.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart shows short-term trends,
The M-Signal indicator on the 1W and 1M charts indicates mid- to long-term trends.
Therefore, you need to identify trends and create a response strategy that matches your trading strategy, that is, your investment period.
Since the MS-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, that is, the M-Signal indicator, passes through the 45135.66-46431.50 range, if it falls to around 46431.50, you should check for support and respond in the short term.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is passing around 41253.4, so an appropriate response is needed.
Both the StochRSI indicator and the BW indicator hit their highest points.
Accordingly, if the price shows a slight decline, it will show a reversal.
However, if the StochRSI indicator does not fall below the overbought range, it means that the strength of the rise is strong, so you must check and respond to support and resistance at the support and resistance points or sections.
In other words, how well you find support and resistance on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts is the most important factor required for trading in chart analysis.
No matter how much you can tell the trend through chart analysis, if you ultimately fail to find support and resistance points, trading may proceed in the wrong direction.
Therefore, support and resistance points should be points that anyone can understand and predict.
If you do not explain the interpretation of support and resistance points, it will be difficult to utilize the support and resistance points, so although it may be a good article for chart analysis, it will be an analysis that cannot be used for trading purposes.
Have a good time.
thank you
--------------------------------------------------
- The big picture
This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points that are likely to encounter resistance in the future.
We need to see if we can break through these points upward.
Since it is thought that a new trend can be created in the overshooting zone, you should check the movement when this zone is touched.
If the general upward trend continues until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 57014.33 and then create a pull back pattern.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA
** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.
** This chart was created using my know-how.
---------------------------------
Comment:
The volatility period is around February 15-20 (maximum February 14-21).
As it rises above 47600.0, it is approaching the 0.886-1.0 section, the Fibonacci ratio section, which is expected to be a resistance section.
Accordingly, the split selling period begins around 53256.64.
When selling to make a profit, it is best to sell when the price rises.
thus,
1st: 53256.64
2nd: 56950.56
3rd: 59370.07
It is recommended to proceed with a split sale when the stock appears to be shaking around the 1st to 3rd rounds above.
If it rises around 53256.64 and then falls, you should check if it is supported around 44200.0-47600.0.
If it falls below this range, there is a possibility that it will turn into a downward trend, so a countermeasure is needed.
In order for a major bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance will fall after rising in the 56.78-62.47 range or higher.
BTC, BTC dominance, and altcoins are showing a simultaneous rise as they rise beyond important points or sections.
However, if BTC continues to rise, altcoins will gradually sideways or decline.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the current rise in altcoins will continue.
If BTC touches the resistance zone and falls, it is expected to form a pullback for the start of a major bull market.
Accordingly, the split selling period begins around 53256.64.
When selling to make a profit, it is best to sell when the price rises.
thus,
1st: 53256.64
2nd: 56950.56
3rd: 59370.07
It is recommended to proceed with a split sale when the stock appears to be shaking around the 1st to 3rd rounds above.
If it rises around 53256.64 and then falls, you should check if it is supported around 44200.0-47600.0.
If it falls below this range, there is a possibility that it will turn into a downward trend, so a countermeasure is needed.
BTC, BTC dominance, and altcoins are showing a simultaneous rise as they rise beyond important points or sections.
However, if BTC continues to rise, altcoins will gradually sideways or decline.
Therefore, it is unlikely that the current rise in altcoins will continue.
If BTC touches the resistance zone and falls, it is expected to form a pullback for the start of a major bull market.
Comment:
As USDC gap rises again, funds are continuously flowing in through USDT and USDC.
If USDT dominance falls below 4.97, I think there is a high possibility that a bull market will begin.
However, I think what kind of bull market will begin depends on the movement of BTC dominance.
In order for a major bull market, that is, a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH), to begin, it is expected that it will rise to around 56.78-62.47 and then begin to fall.
If not, there is a possibility that an altcoin bull market may begin.
An altcoin bull market means a bull market in which you can make a profit no matter what altcoin you buy now.
I think it is already a bullish market because BTC has touched 52K, but compared to that, the prices of altcoins are in the low price range.
Therefore, in order for a full-fledged bull market to begin, we need to take a close look at the movement of BTC dominance mentioned above.
Even if USDT dominance falls below 4.97, if BTC dominance does not change significantly from its current position, there is a possibility that only BTC and some altcoins will show an upward movement.
In order for a major bull market, that is, a bull market in which most coins (tokens) renew their new highs (ATH), to begin, it is expected that it will rise to around 56.78-62.47 and then begin to fall.
If not, there is a possibility that an altcoin bull market may begin.
An altcoin bull market means a bull market in which you can make a profit no matter what altcoin you buy now.
I think it is already a bullish market because BTC has touched 52K, but compared to that, the prices of altcoins are in the low price range.
Therefore, in order for a full-fledged bull market to begin, we need to take a close look at the movement of BTC dominance mentioned above.
Even if USDT dominance falls below 4.97, if BTC dominance does not change significantly from its current position, there is a possibility that only BTC and some altcoins will show an upward movement.
Comment:
This period of volatility is expected to last until February 21st.
Caution must be exercised when trading during periods of volatility.
To purchase more as the price rises
1. Just before the candle on the 1D chart closes as a downward candle.
2. When touching 5EMA or HA 5EMA and trying to rise
3. When it shows support near the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators.
Additional purchases are possible when 1-3 above apply.
However, you must carefully control the proportion.
This is because if you make additional purchases in too large a proportion, the average purchase price will rise significantly, which can become a factor of psychological anxiety.
Caution must be exercised when trading during periods of volatility.
To purchase more as the price rises
1. Just before the candle on the 1D chart closes as a downward candle.
2. When touching 5EMA or HA 5EMA and trying to rise
3. When it shows support near the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators.
Additional purchases are possible when 1-3 above apply.
However, you must carefully control the proportion.
This is because if you make additional purchases in too large a proportion, the average purchase price will rise significantly, which can become a factor of psychological anxiety.
Comment:
(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The upper line of the Price Channel indicator is currently appearing on a candle.
Accordingly, we need to check whether the upper line of the Price Channel indicator is maintained when today's candle is closed.
The creation of the upper line of the Price Channel indicator means that the high point has been confirmed, so if it fails to rise above the upper point, it is likely to lead to a further decline.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained above the upper line of the Price Channel indicator until February 21st, during this period of volatility.
Accordingly, we need to check whether the upper line of the Price Channel indicator is maintained when today's candle is closed.
The creation of the upper line of the Price Channel indicator means that the high point has been confirmed, so if it fails to rise above the upper point, it is likely to lead to a further decline.
Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained above the upper line of the Price Channel indicator until February 21st, during this period of volatility.
[Example of exchange chart setup]
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
(Binance)
www.tradingview.com/x/S94aDxa8
(Upbit)
www.tradingview.com/x/DF6cGh3G/
You should check whether there is support based on the closing price (Close) when this week's candle closed.
--------------------------
This outflow of funds is believed to be due to the funds realized as profits being withdrawn from the coin market.
Therefore, short-term impacts are likely.