BTC/USDT trading perspective and 3 possible scenarios

Some straightforward statements to provide perspective without causing alarm or excessive optimism.


BTCUSDT

• BTC is not crashing; it's merely retracing. Thus, the probability that it will drop below
  
• 52K is very low.
  
• BTC is overbought on the weekly timeframe, so we can expect some selling pressure due to this. The MACD needs to reset lower on a weekly basis.
  
• BTC on the daily chart is in the green, so it will provide resistance while waiting for the weekly indicators to reset.
  
• Grayscale continues to sell $100M-$200M daily, which compensates for the halving. The selling pressure remains high despite the halving. Miner outflows have decreased by 50%, but Grayscale continues to undermine the bull run.
  
• The ETFs have come to a standstill, which is normal. ETF providers are not buying daily but instead invest carefully and buy a week or so of supply since the demand is lower. This allows Grayscale room to drive the price down.
  
• The economic situation is concerning for major investors; with no rate cut in sight, they are being conservative with their crypto investments. This is why we see the global crypto cap decreasing.
  
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Considering these factors, we can expect Bitcoin to fluctuate for a while, with dips from Grayscale's selling and some relief when ETFs are buying. This will continue until one of these events occurs:

• The weekly MACD crosses back into the green and reaches the bottom.
  
• The Fed cuts interest rates.
  
• Grayscale stops selling Celcius and government bags.
  
• The ETFs allow greater exposure to Bitcoin and therefore buy more.
  

Conclusion:

• Scenario 1: If BTC bounces back to 60k, we can resume the uptrend; this correction is finished.
  Scenario 2: If BTC bulls cannot reclaim the 60k resistance and transform it into support, we will probably drop to the next strong resistance at 52k, then quickly pump back to 60k.
  Scenario 3: If we see FUD happening with the ETF, and if there's all this selling pressure without any inflow, we might crash down to the bottom at, then bounce back to the bull market's parabolic trend.
  

The bull run is not canceled, and we are not going to crash to $3000. No worries there!
Avoid leverage unless you are on a suicide mission. BTC is unpredictable due to the actions of institutions that can drive the price up or down, and these actions are not always reflected on the charts.
The green area is a good entry point for those who still have cash available.
I hope you find this analysis helpful.

Remember, this is a personal opinion, not financial advice. Do your own research (DYOR); crypto is a risky investment. Take responsibility for your decisions and do not blame me if I am wrong. Anything can happen.

Comment:

Apparently, scenario 1) is playing out.

Comment:

Confirmation that the scenario 1) did work perfection, all targets are met, I close this idea to focus on more recent ones. Follow me to get noticed when I publish new idea. Thanks

Trade closed: target reached