🔍Bitcoin is at a critical juncture that could signify either the start of a new upward trend or a rejection at resistance levels. As the most popular coin in the market, Bitcoin needs no introduction. Even a single day of activity in the market would make one familiar with Bitcoin and its significance.
🧩Let's dive into the analysis and explore the potential scenarios. We will analyze the 4-hour time frame, focusing on futures trading.
📚Bitcoin is currently within a large range box between $73,300 and $60,976. Recently, there was a false breakout below this range, but buyers regained control, pushing the price back into the box. This indicates strong buying pressure, as sellers failed to maintain lower prices despite initial bearish momentum. Recently, buyers broke through the $64,637 resistance and are now facing a stronger resistance at $66,828.
🎲Despite approaching this resistance, the market shows signs of trend weakness, as indicated by the red candles and decreasing bullish momentum. After reaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with a pullback to $64,637, the price rebounded, yet the green candles lack the volume to sustain a strong bullish trend.
🔫Rejection from $66,828: If the price gets rejected at this level, we could see another pullback to the 0.382 retracement level and potentially a deeper correction to the 0.618 level, a significant Fibonacci retracement level that has previously acted as support.
Curved Ascending Trendline: Although an ascending trendline is present, it’s less reliable due to its formation within a range and having only two touches. Nonetheless, it will be monitored for reactions.
🪄With the current momentum favoring buyers, a breakout above $66,828 would be an entry signal for long positions, aiming for a target of $73,305. However, since we are in a low wave cycle (LWC) with a ranging high wave cycle (HWC), quick profit-taking is advisable. The best-case scenario would be to risk-free positions at a 2:1 or 3:1 risk-reward ratio, hoping the HWC also turns bullish.The primary long trigger is at $73,305. Breaking this level could introduce new bullish momentum and potentially mark the start of a bull run.
📉 If the SMA25 reaches the candles and the price continues to range, a break below $64,637 could be an opportunity for a high-risk short position with quick profit-taking.
The significant short trigger is at $60,976, breaking which could start a new bearish trend, delaying the bull run by several months.
📊Always monitor volume as no trend can sustain with volume divergence. The best and most extended trends are those with increasing volume during trend phases and decreasing volume during corrections.
📝Bitcoin is currently at a crucial decision point. The market's next move will likely define the short-term trend, either confirming bullish momentum with a breakout or indicating a potential reversal. Proper risk management and attention to volume trends are crucial for successful trading. I hope this analysis provides valuable insights for your trading decisions.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🧩Let's dive into the analysis and explore the potential scenarios. We will analyze the 4-hour time frame, focusing on futures trading.
📚Bitcoin is currently within a large range box between $73,300 and $60,976. Recently, there was a false breakout below this range, but buyers regained control, pushing the price back into the box. This indicates strong buying pressure, as sellers failed to maintain lower prices despite initial bearish momentum. Recently, buyers broke through the $64,637 resistance and are now facing a stronger resistance at $66,828.
🎲Despite approaching this resistance, the market shows signs of trend weakness, as indicated by the red candles and decreasing bullish momentum. After reaching the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with a pullback to $64,637, the price rebounded, yet the green candles lack the volume to sustain a strong bullish trend.
🔫Rejection from $66,828: If the price gets rejected at this level, we could see another pullback to the 0.382 retracement level and potentially a deeper correction to the 0.618 level, a significant Fibonacci retracement level that has previously acted as support.
Curved Ascending Trendline: Although an ascending trendline is present, it’s less reliable due to its formation within a range and having only two touches. Nonetheless, it will be monitored for reactions.
🪄With the current momentum favoring buyers, a breakout above $66,828 would be an entry signal for long positions, aiming for a target of $73,305. However, since we are in a low wave cycle (LWC) with a ranging high wave cycle (HWC), quick profit-taking is advisable. The best-case scenario would be to risk-free positions at a 2:1 or 3:1 risk-reward ratio, hoping the HWC also turns bullish.The primary long trigger is at $73,305. Breaking this level could introduce new bullish momentum and potentially mark the start of a bull run.
📉 If the SMA25 reaches the candles and the price continues to range, a break below $64,637 could be an opportunity for a high-risk short position with quick profit-taking.
The significant short trigger is at $60,976, breaking which could start a new bearish trend, delaying the bull run by several months.
📊Always monitor volume as no trend can sustain with volume divergence. The best and most extended trends are those with increasing volume during trend phases and decreasing volume during corrections.
📝Bitcoin is currently at a crucial decision point. The market's next move will likely define the short-term trend, either confirming bullish momentum with a breakout or indicating a potential reversal. Proper risk management and attention to volume trends are crucial for successful trading. I hope this analysis provides valuable insights for your trading decisions.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
