Current state of play for BTC
Bitcoin, and the crypto markets overall, have seen a marked strike of volatility which resulted in a new yearly high being made of $31,5000 USD before price then fell away back down to $30,250 USD at the time of writing.
What can we gain from this price action? The simple fact that there have been more supply and sellers at these price highs than there has been conviction to continue biding at higher prices.
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What else could be moving markets overnight?
A key metric that may be driving some of this volatility is the options market. The 7th of July is also the largest total value of options expiring until the 28th of July.
https://metrics.deribit.com/options/BTC
Option expiry is historically known to cause markets to move as these contracts are settled. Max pain for this contract date is also $30,000USD - so it will be interesting to see if price settles at price range after the contracts settle. (Click here to learn about max pain)
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Where to next
These are the bullish and bearish scenarios to be watching. A clean higher time frame (Hourly or greater) close beyond these range highs or lows will be telling in the bears or bulls are in control.
Currently we are in the middle of it all.
Bitcoin, and the crypto markets overall, have seen a marked strike of volatility which resulted in a new yearly high being made of $31,5000 USD before price then fell away back down to $30,250 USD at the time of writing.
What can we gain from this price action? The simple fact that there have been more supply and sellers at these price highs than there has been conviction to continue biding at higher prices.
----
What else could be moving markets overnight?
A key metric that may be driving some of this volatility is the options market. The 7th of July is also the largest total value of options expiring until the 28th of July.
https://metrics.deribit.com/options/BTC
Option expiry is historically known to cause markets to move as these contracts are settled. Max pain for this contract date is also $30,000USD - so it will be interesting to see if price settles at price range after the contracts settle. (Click here to learn about max pain)
----
Where to next
These are the bullish and bearish scenarios to be watching. A clean higher time frame (Hourly or greater) close beyond these range highs or lows will be telling in the bears or bulls are in control.
Currently we are in the middle of it all.
Check out my YouTube channel - Crypto With Pav, for crypto market analysis. You can also join my free telegram for more frequent updates - t.me/pavs_ta_temple
Chop and indecision is what we’ve seen continue to be the theme for Bitcoin, with price currently still range bound. There was some volatility post positive CPI data last week. However, no commitment from market players to break the range and price higher.
The next major news catalyst from the macro landscape is FOMC, the interest rate meeting. This might be the next key event that helps the bulls or bears show their hands so we can get some idea of where we might be going next.
🐂Bullish Scenario
A candle close above $31,803 USD on a 12 hourly or higher time frame. This would create a higher high and waiting for a higher low to then form to lock in an uptrend.
🐻Bearish Scenario
A candle close below $29,500 USD on a 12 hourly or higher time frame. This would create a lower low, and a then lower high forming would further confirm a down trend.