5/16/24 - $docs - not convinced into print, careful fam
5/16/24 - vrockstar -
DOCS
- looks modestly interesting b/c the bar looks low-ish for a beat and it's a few days to cover. however, the prior Q's MSD+ revenue beat was sold down hard and without relief until today and the stock divided by SPY (the comp i benchmark everything by) is a bleed forever. it's not like valuation is a steal at 15% pa growth 7.5x sales, 25x PE and 4-5% fcf yield. options market also have a pretty substantial interest for the 6/21 contracts at 20P which i ignored (to my own peril in DLO and were proved correct). i'd be nervous that a beat is nothing that can rip/ re-rate higher for a reasonable multi-day swing with nice 10+% upside. and forget a miss - you're look at 10% minimally, i'd guess in this tape and given you'd be breaking ATL at that point, it's an exercise in catching a falling knife which is a miserable experience, always and usually best to find a bottoming pattern even if you don't nail the bottom - nobody does.
i'll be watching this from the sidelines and not all that interested if/unless we get to mid teens on a macro-related sell off. gl to the holders. tough one to play into this print.
DOCS
- looks modestly interesting b/c the bar looks low-ish for a beat and it's a few days to cover. however, the prior Q's MSD+ revenue beat was sold down hard and without relief until today and the stock divided by SPY (the comp i benchmark everything by) is a bleed forever. it's not like valuation is a steal at 15% pa growth 7.5x sales, 25x PE and 4-5% fcf yield. options market also have a pretty substantial interest for the 6/21 contracts at 20P which i ignored (to my own peril in DLO and were proved correct). i'd be nervous that a beat is nothing that can rip/ re-rate higher for a reasonable multi-day swing with nice 10+% upside. and forget a miss - you're look at 10% minimally, i'd guess in this tape and given you'd be breaking ATL at that point, it's an exercise in catching a falling knife which is a miserable experience, always and usually best to find a bottoming pattern even if you don't nail the bottom - nobody does. i'll be watching this from the sidelines and not all that interested if/unless we get to mid teens on a macro-related sell off. gl to the holders. tough one to play into this print.