Yesterday's volume was awful, but there was one major take away from it that is rarely ever observed. The second half of the day had more volume than the first half. Now it isn't hard to outpace a turtle, however, normally a slow first half is followed with a slower second half. I expect at some point for that selling volume to continue.
There isn't any major economic data except maybe unemployment this week, so there isn't a major risk of another market Spoofing attack (I'm convinced that is what happened last Wednesday with the CPI Data, and wouldn't be the first time as major investment firms have had employees arrested for doing this). That also means that only Earnings are really giving any guidance.
So yesterday's risk appetite was as such...
Threat of recession and skyrocketing inflation? No big deal, let's buy in!
Apple is hiring, but might hire less people? Zoinks, sell it all!
The major Earnings today are J&J (BTO), which is has an estimate of a -5.06%, but has reported yet. On a lesser note, Lockhead Martin (BTO) and Netflix (AMC) are coming in.
The 30m Trend has already flipped since yesterday from a downtrend back into an uptrend this morning. The 1-Hour hasn't followed yet, but I'd expect it to shortly if we keep climbing. The timeframe trends seem to be dissolving as quickly as they form with yet again, one caveat to that.
Our first high stalled at the 12-Hour, our second high stalled at the 6-Hour, now our third high has stalled at the 4-Hour.
While I'm going to watch that 3882 Level, what I may watch even closer is the 2-Hour or 3-Hour uptrends forming and then potentially failing.
There are patterns forming in every direction also, and those tend to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as they are noticed, though I guess it depends on which is noticed first.
You could say in price action we have an inverted cup and handle, a cup and handle itself, a head and shoulders, and inverted head and shoulders, a double bottom, a descending wedge, a bear pennant, a bull pennant, or maybe it is just a flying squirrel.
The same can be said with RSI. MFI is a bit more prominent, though it does show a downward trajectory since the middle high, resembling some of what had occurred during our last big drop off.
Honestly, I am probably bearish yet again in my sentiment. However, I don't trust the bears or the bulls in this market. Most major price action days have been on the back of very low volume. Market reading 101, Price Action + Volume = Likely Market Direction.
All I can say is, caution, caution and more caution. It's a double-sided squeeze is the real pattern forming here. Based on the lower volume, I'd say most financial institutions have been staying out of the S&P Futures for now, consider doing the same or being very patient with your decisions.
There isn't any major economic data except maybe unemployment this week, so there isn't a major risk of another market Spoofing attack (I'm convinced that is what happened last Wednesday with the CPI Data, and wouldn't be the first time as major investment firms have had employees arrested for doing this). That also means that only Earnings are really giving any guidance.
So yesterday's risk appetite was as such...
Threat of recession and skyrocketing inflation? No big deal, let's buy in!
Apple is hiring, but might hire less people? Zoinks, sell it all!
The major Earnings today are J&J (BTO), which is has an estimate of a -5.06%, but has reported yet. On a lesser note, Lockhead Martin (BTO) and Netflix (AMC) are coming in.
The 30m Trend has already flipped since yesterday from a downtrend back into an uptrend this morning. The 1-Hour hasn't followed yet, but I'd expect it to shortly if we keep climbing. The timeframe trends seem to be dissolving as quickly as they form with yet again, one caveat to that.
Our first high stalled at the 12-Hour, our second high stalled at the 6-Hour, now our third high has stalled at the 4-Hour.
While I'm going to watch that 3882 Level, what I may watch even closer is the 2-Hour or 3-Hour uptrends forming and then potentially failing.
There are patterns forming in every direction also, and those tend to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as they are noticed, though I guess it depends on which is noticed first.
You could say in price action we have an inverted cup and handle, a cup and handle itself, a head and shoulders, and inverted head and shoulders, a double bottom, a descending wedge, a bear pennant, a bull pennant, or maybe it is just a flying squirrel.
The same can be said with RSI. MFI is a bit more prominent, though it does show a downward trajectory since the middle high, resembling some of what had occurred during our last big drop off.
Honestly, I am probably bearish yet again in my sentiment. However, I don't trust the bears or the bulls in this market. Most major price action days have been on the back of very low volume. Market reading 101, Price Action + Volume = Likely Market Direction.
All I can say is, caution, caution and more caution. It's a double-sided squeeze is the real pattern forming here. Based on the lower volume, I'd say most financial institutions have been staying out of the S&P Futures for now, consider doing the same or being very patient with your decisions.
Comment:
On a side note, in terms of sectors, only Energy rose yesterday (very typical for the year). Couple sectors came in flat (Consumer Discretionary), but the major ones (Tech, Healthcare, Financials) all fell.
Comment:
J&J Beat Earnings estimates. Not by much, but a bit. That is a decline overall from last quarter. So I wouldn't take it as a huge bullish move on that stock today.
Comment:
I'm not carrying a trade into this open. I want to see volume, and if there is any price direction in it. International trades have gotten us already 1% higher... wonder if that continues or the US pumps the sells
Comment:
Thinking it is coming back down, but not ready to commit. Side note, the 1-Hour is signaling the uptrend but then failing to hold as it goes up and down here.
Comment:
Went short, 3883.25, looking to see if the 4-Hour Uptrend will fail again here
Comment:
Side note. The 1-Hour Uptrend is right on top of the 4-Hour Uptrend now also. 3883
Trade closed manually:
I was stopped out for lunch money on that one.
Trade active:
So that 2-Hour Uptrend is signaling. I've gone short again (though maybe too early since the 2-Hour doens't settle until 11)... to see if this continual decline of uptrend highs continues.
Comment:
Yep, definitely too early by about 10 minutes and 10 points. However, indicators all over are flashing overbought on shorter timeframes. So I'll be holding out for a bit here. Looking to see how it handles yesterday's high that ended in a sell the rip.
Comment:
Managed a small loss to gain a better position. Went from 3898 and took a loss at 3903, but then now was able to get in at 3912. The 3-Hour is signaling though it looks like it may not hold up or go past if it does. Volume is decent today, not really justification for that upward movement, but not awful. I'll definitely be holding this for a bit and seeing what comes out of it. This is that usual sell the rip level right here.
Comment:
Update, the 6-Hour has reversed to an uptrend. Settling in right at the 3920 level.
In spite of the fact that it has been almost a month since that 12-Hour trend attempted and failed to push us upward, it certainly appears that the market wants to high five and give that 3926 level some life.
The first half of today is finished, and carries the second lowest volume we've seen since July 10th for a first half (the first being yesterday), it has been the largest 12 hour period of price movement since June 15th and close to July 5th.
I suppose this second half is really the big indicator on where we might go from here. In spite of lower volume, we are sitting here at certainly a key level of resistance that we've sat at for nearly a month.
Do we sell the rip? Or try to take this higher and bring that prediction of 4000+ levels to fruition. I'm not sure, and I can safely say I may bug out of my current trade for caution of catching the wrong side of this move. Still holding for now.
In spite of the fact that it has been almost a month since that 12-Hour trend attempted and failed to push us upward, it certainly appears that the market wants to high five and give that 3926 level some life.
The first half of today is finished, and carries the second lowest volume we've seen since July 10th for a first half (the first being yesterday), it has been the largest 12 hour period of price movement since June 15th and close to July 5th.
I suppose this second half is really the big indicator on where we might go from here. In spite of lower volume, we are sitting here at certainly a key level of resistance that we've sat at for nearly a month.
Do we sell the rip? Or try to take this higher and bring that prediction of 4000+ levels to fruition. I'm not sure, and I can safely say I may bug out of my current trade for caution of catching the wrong side of this move. Still holding for now.
Trade closed manually:
I bailed out once we made a new high. Going to take my loss for the day and possibly look at things once it closes or if it starts to dip
Comment:
Well.... I'm certainly not bearish. I'll take a neutral stance yet again.
The Good: It closed above the 12-Hour Trendline at 3926. It certainly ended with one hell of a shove today and a full completely upward bar with no candlewick on top. If nothing else I'd think we have a whipsaw day before we have some sort of massive dip backwards after that. We did manage 1.5 million in volume today also. We also broke and closed above the long downward trendline that has been plaguing us since April.
The Bad: The 12-Hour bar closes at 01:00 EST in the morning. So I'll be interested if it can hold. Also, while we crested 1.5 mill in volume, the vast majority of that was in the last 5 minutes, and that was stagnant. Most of the upward momentum today was on low volume.
Be interested to see what happens overnight and if those indicators for everything 4-Hour and below can cool off a bit before we attempt a push higher and put ourselves into overbought. I wouldn't be surprised though that since that 12-Hour triggered so long ago, that any more upward push doesn't start to trigger a Daily Uptrend.
I would look at any downward momentum to 3900 as a buy in, and anything below 3900 as the potential for a reversal at this point. I'll update trends in the morning, but basically everything is up except the Daily and Weekly.
The Good: It closed above the 12-Hour Trendline at 3926. It certainly ended with one hell of a shove today and a full completely upward bar with no candlewick on top. If nothing else I'd think we have a whipsaw day before we have some sort of massive dip backwards after that. We did manage 1.5 million in volume today also. We also broke and closed above the long downward trendline that has been plaguing us since April.
The Bad: The 12-Hour bar closes at 01:00 EST in the morning. So I'll be interested if it can hold. Also, while we crested 1.5 mill in volume, the vast majority of that was in the last 5 minutes, and that was stagnant. Most of the upward momentum today was on low volume.
Be interested to see what happens overnight and if those indicators for everything 4-Hour and below can cool off a bit before we attempt a push higher and put ourselves into overbought. I wouldn't be surprised though that since that 12-Hour triggered so long ago, that any more upward push doesn't start to trigger a Daily Uptrend.
I would look at any downward momentum to 3900 as a buy in, and anything below 3900 as the potential for a reversal at this point. I'll update trends in the morning, but basically everything is up except the Daily and Weekly.
Comment:
Also, Netflix Earnings in. Missed EPS, beat Revenue. They lost almost a million subscribers, but had warned they thought they'd lose 2 million, so perhaps that is good news? They released their guide that they hope to add a million back by end of this quarter, in part from the password sharing crackdown.
Comment:
In looking at Earnings tomorrow... my assessment is that Netflix doesn't keep all these gains and people start to bail on Tesla because of production issues and Elon and his drama.
However, with a slew of companies to invest in, investors can take their money from them and dump it back into other more profitable looking companies. That will cause the whipsaw day.
However, with a slew of companies to invest in, investors can take their money from them and dump it back into other more profitable looking companies. That will cause the whipsaw day.