bill_blue_line

More Selling to Come on Fitch Downgrade?

Long
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Yesterday, Fitch downgraded U.S. Credit from AAA to AA+. The last time U.S. credit was downgraded was by S&P on Friday August 5, 2011, after the close, from AAA to where it stands today at AA+. On Monday, E-mini S&P futures finished -7.2% and settled at 1111.25. In the next session, overnight, E-mini S&P futures traded to a low of 1077, but finished the day +5.44%. In fact, to the August 31st peak E-mini S&P futures gained as much at 14% from that low. On October 11, 2011 that low was tested and rejected. The stock market has never looked back!

Added selling pressure showed up today from another hot private ADP Payroll survey at 324k jobs versus 189k. They also revised June’s blowout of 497k down nearly 10% to 455k. Remember, Nonfarm Payroll for June came in at 209k versus 225k expected. To make matters worse, the ADP survey does not include wage growth data, meaning there is little context here.

A big week is still getting underway with ISM Non-Manufacturing due at 9:00 am CT Thursday, and July Nonfarm Payrolls due at 7:30 am CT.


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