Trends brought in the rally, but positioned to head lower now
So I was away from my computer and basically just managed a trade via phone and had no way to make an update for yesterday. My analysis was basically close to the same sentiment I had from Wednesday, which was that we had violated too many trends and were going to see a brief rally.
From that rally, we now have several trends that when they went uptrend, are showing lower highs now and could easily then dip down to lower lows and beyond. So I think overall in terms of the market placement, we are set for things to go lower.
However, if we go lower will likely depend on PCE data and Personal Income/Spending set to release this morning. While the analysis says to head lower, I've said so many times that nothing destroys any analysis like economic data. Especially after a fairly grim picture from yesterday that showed GDP slowed significantly even though the labor market remains strong. It should be noted that heavy movements in unemployment tend to happen during a recession, not before it begins.
Anyways, the trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4137 Downtrend (4/28/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4118 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
There is the potential to go back to every dip is a rally point, as yesterday's low volume one sided rally move shows that there is still a lot of Bullish sentiment in the market that we could go higher to 4200 and beyond. Currently I don't think I'd enter into a long trade unless we get above the 4hr, as every downtrend we hit currently will be a lower low.
The Short Position;
Being that I was away and couldn't bring up my trend algorithm, I believe I missed the short entry point which was 4158. I suppose a strong move down past the 30m downtrend point of 4136 could end up as a late entry, but I might just kick back and watch after a relatively good week.
Economic Data;
PCE and Personal Income and Spending are today. I expect this to cause major movements at this time, unless it comes in directly on as expected.
Earnings;
Chevron, which beat earnings but warns of falling oil prices ahead, was the only major company to report today.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Honestly... I'm kinda bullish I think on a long term. I guess we will see if we do end up heading lower, how low it goes, but if it stalls at 3900 and we rally back up, then I think we could easily rally next time to 4300.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
From that rally, we now have several trends that when they went uptrend, are showing lower highs now and could easily then dip down to lower lows and beyond. So I think overall in terms of the market placement, we are set for things to go lower.
However, if we go lower will likely depend on PCE data and Personal Income/Spending set to release this morning. While the analysis says to head lower, I've said so many times that nothing destroys any analysis like economic data. Especially after a fairly grim picture from yesterday that showed GDP slowed significantly even though the labor market remains strong. It should be noted that heavy movements in unemployment tend to happen during a recession, not before it begins.
Anyways, the trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4137 Downtrend (4/28/2023) Lower Low
1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High
6Hr - 4118 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
There is the potential to go back to every dip is a rally point, as yesterday's low volume one sided rally move shows that there is still a lot of Bullish sentiment in the market that we could go higher to 4200 and beyond. Currently I don't think I'd enter into a long trade unless we get above the 4hr, as every downtrend we hit currently will be a lower low.
The Short Position;
Being that I was away and couldn't bring up my trend algorithm, I believe I missed the short entry point which was 4158. I suppose a strong move down past the 30m downtrend point of 4136 could end up as a late entry, but I might just kick back and watch after a relatively good week.
Economic Data;
PCE and Personal Income and Spending are today. I expect this to cause major movements at this time, unless it comes in directly on as expected.
Earnings;
Chevron, which beat earnings but warns of falling oil prices ahead, was the only major company to report today.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Honestly... I'm kinda bullish I think on a long term. I guess we will see if we do end up heading lower, how low it goes, but if it stalls at 3900 and we rally back up, then I think we could easily rally next time to 4300.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
Comment:
Employment costs are rising. Spending is flat, wages are a bit higher, core PCE is basically flat at .3% month over month. Headline PCE is lower, but that is likely because energy which is why the drop isn't reflected in Core PCE.
Comment:
Honestly, I think the employment cost upside is the one big surprise. It isn't wages going up, but more so the cost of employment. So the cost of businesses to have employees is surprisingly higher, and that increased cost really isn't going into payroll wages.
Comment:
I definitely see the potential at this point for a down day... will have eyes on the open to see how things roll.
Not sure I'll get into today, but will check back to see where the CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions are... it has been increasing to the negative side week over week, presenting a picture that more and more people are latching onto a bearish sentiment over the immediate future.
Not sure I'll get into today, but will check back to see where the CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions are... it has been increasing to the negative side week over week, presenting a picture that more and more people are latching onto a bearish sentiment over the immediate future.
Comment:
I'm likely to go short at 13:00 EST (an hour from now). That'll have trends maxed to the upside with room to run to the downside. It'll be a good entry point for trading on trends unless things suddenly fall off now. We are currently settling a 6 hour bar that is signaling the uptrend.
Comment:
I went short at 4185, will likely hold this into next week.