Trends Going into the Week Mixed; Small Upside Before Downside
So with our movement down on Friday, we start to flip flop a few trends. That being said, I'd not count on any of them holding traction just yet.
The 30m, 1H, and 2H Downtrend signals are all a higher low downtrend since their last time, and Price Action has already moved back above the 1H and 2H downtrend marks. Oddly enough, it was the 5m that really showed the direction of yesterday, as it had shown any movement down past 3982 would continue downward, and it did indeed.
However, stronger trends almost always win out in the long run (hence why we are going to be eventually pulled down to make a 12-Hour downtrend signal). So this means that one could look for some small movements up, using the 30m as an area to keep from going into a bad trade zone.
Ultimately, I see us on Monday getting an upward movement that gives us a 30m Uptrend Signal. The caution this provides, is this signal will be a LOWER HIGH Uptrend signal, as our last uptrend signal hit at 3997, and with the downward movement we saw on Friday, this new uptrend will undoubtedly hit below that unless there is some sort of 30m melt upward. As I had said last week, I expect to start seeing a few of the lower timeframe trends, such as the 30m, 1h, and maybe even 2h, begin to show they are reversing direction.
What does trends reversing direction look like? So, when you look for this to happen, as I had explained on an earlier video, you'll begin to see one of two things, depending on the level of volatility, but both can show we could be headed for a price trend reversal.
Scenario 1; Higher High Uptrends and Lower Low Downtrends:
We actually had this with the 30m from Thursday into Friday. It begins to widen the area during a period of consolidation. This is honestly the more frustrating area to trade inside, as we saw over the last month. During that time, you probably saw me complaining about the 4-Hour and 6-Hour trends flip flopping so much, that is what they were doing. As you draw these trend lines to each other, you basically get a < shape with trends. Eventually, price gives way and we head out of it in one direction or the other, such as the movement upward from the 3882 of the 4-Hour we just had.
Scenario 2; Lower High Uptrends and Higher Low Downtrends:
This is more the squeeze and contraction scenario. As you draw a line from the trends, you actually begin to use them as counter trends. Because the uptrend line is descending and shows when price action could suddenly go lower, and the downtrend line goes higher and shows when price action could go higher. You basically get this shape >< and normally once the cross over occurs you get a price movement in one direction or the other and an earlier sign of where we are headed than in scenario 1. This will happen on the 30m if we have a normal movement upward that signals a lower high uptrend signal, but then we continue to pick up pace upwards and once we reverse we will then also have a higher low.
If this makes no sense, I might make a video on it later, but I've noticed it doesn't appear a lot of people want to watch a video (maybe my voice is annoying?!?! haha), and prefer just the chart and text.
So to recap, on the trend side of things;
The Good; The movement down gave us lots of entry points to try and take upward movements. If we fall back under 3954ish briefly, we can look for any upward push past 3954ish as an entry point. I didn't want to take a trade and hold it over the weekend, otherwise I would have been tempted to snag one the last time we came in back above that level. We definitely showed a clear bounce off the 2-Hour Downtrend at this point, and I think this pullback could take us back up around 4000 at least for the moment.
The Bad; While we have some great initial movement upward on the 1-Hour and 2-Hour, once that 30m hits, it will be showing a lower high trend descent most likely, unless we have a hell of a push up past 3997 in a half hour movement. So while I think we have some upside here, I'd be cautious on holding anything upward past when this triggers, and make sure to have a good take profit mark set. I could see this mark being somewhere around 3985ish at the moment. Once this happens, I'd look at short scalp movements on anything above 3985 unless we push up enough to get a 1-Hour Uptrend, and subsequently a 2-Hour Uptrend, as both of those Uptrend marks will be higher high trends. As those show up though, look to see if we fail to go above them, even if we get some slow moving upward price action, it make not be crossing above that uptrending line.
Sentiment on the week;
I think we have some whipsaw between 3950 and 4005 Monday, then the same price range but with more to the downside on Tuesday, ultimately showing at LEAST on the 1-Hour we could reverse and a 4-Hour Downtrend that is a higher low that we begin to know NOT to trade to the upside under, and then ultimately by the end of the week, we start that downward movement to recapture the 12-Hour Downtrend signal that we need in order to truly gain future direction. During this up and down, it is possible that the Daily Uptrend could signal, which would definitely be a clear signal of a REVERSAL at this point, and I would trade VERY cautiously on anything above that line.
Data to Watch;
Lots of Tech Earnings coming in this week that have a lot of weight towards the S&P Price. Watch the news to see info about Ad revenue lost in social media giants, as that could be a catalyst that really sends us downward.
Additionally in terms of economic data reporting, we have some consumer confidence data that comes out Tuesday that could be really impacting (10:00 EST) as well as new Home Sales the same time. A reduction in both would show a slowing economy, which is good for reduction in short term inflation, but bad in terms of heading into a recession in the next 12 months. So who knows how the market will react to that. There are a few more decent data points Wednesday, and then of course the expected 75 bps rate hike from the FOMC. Look for a heavy reaction if this is NOT 75 bps, be it 50 or 100. I'd look more to the Statement and Press Conference as a bigger indicator of price movement than the rate hike, as they explain where they are headed over the next few months.
Thursday we have GDP readings. Again, another indicator if inflation is beginning to correct but we are also potentially heading into a recession. We then also have some unemployment data as usual, and then Friday we have PCE Index and some Michigan data that could be impactful.
As you can see, there is no short of data that can cause things to be very volatile next week. So, trade cautiously.
The 30m, 1H, and 2H Downtrend signals are all a higher low downtrend since their last time, and Price Action has already moved back above the 1H and 2H downtrend marks. Oddly enough, it was the 5m that really showed the direction of yesterday, as it had shown any movement down past 3982 would continue downward, and it did indeed.
However, stronger trends almost always win out in the long run (hence why we are going to be eventually pulled down to make a 12-Hour downtrend signal). So this means that one could look for some small movements up, using the 30m as an area to keep from going into a bad trade zone.
Ultimately, I see us on Monday getting an upward movement that gives us a 30m Uptrend Signal. The caution this provides, is this signal will be a LOWER HIGH Uptrend signal, as our last uptrend signal hit at 3997, and with the downward movement we saw on Friday, this new uptrend will undoubtedly hit below that unless there is some sort of 30m melt upward. As I had said last week, I expect to start seeing a few of the lower timeframe trends, such as the 30m, 1h, and maybe even 2h, begin to show they are reversing direction.
What does trends reversing direction look like? So, when you look for this to happen, as I had explained on an earlier video, you'll begin to see one of two things, depending on the level of volatility, but both can show we could be headed for a price trend reversal.
Scenario 1; Higher High Uptrends and Lower Low Downtrends:
We actually had this with the 30m from Thursday into Friday. It begins to widen the area during a period of consolidation. This is honestly the more frustrating area to trade inside, as we saw over the last month. During that time, you probably saw me complaining about the 4-Hour and 6-Hour trends flip flopping so much, that is what they were doing. As you draw these trend lines to each other, you basically get a < shape with trends. Eventually, price gives way and we head out of it in one direction or the other, such as the movement upward from the 3882 of the 4-Hour we just had.
Scenario 2; Lower High Uptrends and Higher Low Downtrends:
This is more the squeeze and contraction scenario. As you draw a line from the trends, you actually begin to use them as counter trends. Because the uptrend line is descending and shows when price action could suddenly go lower, and the downtrend line goes higher and shows when price action could go higher. You basically get this shape >< and normally once the cross over occurs you get a price movement in one direction or the other and an earlier sign of where we are headed than in scenario 1. This will happen on the 30m if we have a normal movement upward that signals a lower high uptrend signal, but then we continue to pick up pace upwards and once we reverse we will then also have a higher low.
If this makes no sense, I might make a video on it later, but I've noticed it doesn't appear a lot of people want to watch a video (maybe my voice is annoying?!?! haha), and prefer just the chart and text.
So to recap, on the trend side of things;
The Good; The movement down gave us lots of entry points to try and take upward movements. If we fall back under 3954ish briefly, we can look for any upward push past 3954ish as an entry point. I didn't want to take a trade and hold it over the weekend, otherwise I would have been tempted to snag one the last time we came in back above that level. We definitely showed a clear bounce off the 2-Hour Downtrend at this point, and I think this pullback could take us back up around 4000 at least for the moment.
The Bad; While we have some great initial movement upward on the 1-Hour and 2-Hour, once that 30m hits, it will be showing a lower high trend descent most likely, unless we have a hell of a push up past 3997 in a half hour movement. So while I think we have some upside here, I'd be cautious on holding anything upward past when this triggers, and make sure to have a good take profit mark set. I could see this mark being somewhere around 3985ish at the moment. Once this happens, I'd look at short scalp movements on anything above 3985 unless we push up enough to get a 1-Hour Uptrend, and subsequently a 2-Hour Uptrend, as both of those Uptrend marks will be higher high trends. As those show up though, look to see if we fail to go above them, even if we get some slow moving upward price action, it make not be crossing above that uptrending line.
Sentiment on the week;
I think we have some whipsaw between 3950 and 4005 Monday, then the same price range but with more to the downside on Tuesday, ultimately showing at LEAST on the 1-Hour we could reverse and a 4-Hour Downtrend that is a higher low that we begin to know NOT to trade to the upside under, and then ultimately by the end of the week, we start that downward movement to recapture the 12-Hour Downtrend signal that we need in order to truly gain future direction. During this up and down, it is possible that the Daily Uptrend could signal, which would definitely be a clear signal of a REVERSAL at this point, and I would trade VERY cautiously on anything above that line.
Data to Watch;
Lots of Tech Earnings coming in this week that have a lot of weight towards the S&P Price. Watch the news to see info about Ad revenue lost in social media giants, as that could be a catalyst that really sends us downward.
Additionally in terms of economic data reporting, we have some consumer confidence data that comes out Tuesday that could be really impacting (10:00 EST) as well as new Home Sales the same time. A reduction in both would show a slowing economy, which is good for reduction in short term inflation, but bad in terms of heading into a recession in the next 12 months. So who knows how the market will react to that. There are a few more decent data points Wednesday, and then of course the expected 75 bps rate hike from the FOMC. Look for a heavy reaction if this is NOT 75 bps, be it 50 or 100. I'd look more to the Statement and Press Conference as a bigger indicator of price movement than the rate hike, as they explain where they are headed over the next few months.
Thursday we have GDP readings. Again, another indicator if inflation is beginning to correct but we are also potentially heading into a recession. We then also have some unemployment data as usual, and then Friday we have PCE Index and some Michigan data that could be impactful.
As you can see, there is no short of data that can cause things to be very volatile next week. So, trade cautiously.
Comment:
1H Uptrend just held, wasn't much, but it stuck the landing at 3986, although it looks like so far it immediately pulled back from going above. Anything to the upside we can expect the 1-Hour to hold and take us higher. Anything below 3974, looks like that 30m is going to bring in a downtrend. If we have a big move downward today, we will get a lower low on the downtrend for the 1H then also.
The other type of reversal pattern, is higher high uptrends and lower low downtrends, making that < pattern. Since the No trade zone only gets larger the longer it takes to correct, that pattern is so annoying to trade inside.
The other type of reversal pattern, is higher high uptrends and lower low downtrends, making that < pattern. Since the No trade zone only gets larger the longer it takes to correct, that pattern is so annoying to trade inside.
Comment:
Just bouncing around in that No Go Zone. I'll be back after the opening bell, not sure I feel like trading into it at this point. The 30m is close to following the downtrend, but the open price bar will be the one going into the opening and this could just as easily run up to touch the 1H as it could follow the 30m down.
Comment:
Jeez talk about low volume open. Lowest first 10 minutes in as far back as I felt like looking.
Comment:
Made a few scalp moves. Enough I will probably drive over and get Tropical Smoothie for lunch today haha. Almost at my daily goal
Comment:
I miss something? What is with the sudden spike in volume? More in the last 5 minutes than the opening bell by almost 30%
Comment:
Ah, everything is definitely working the way it is supposed to. I'm waiting to see this 1-Hour Downtrend hit... if it keeps pushing down, it'll be a lower low on downtrend. Then when we go up, that'll like make a Lower High Uptrend unless it pushes hard back up. I could see us getting down to the 6-Hour Uptrend at 3935 ish before a push upward.
Comment:
30m Downtrend just held at 3960. It was a lower low of downtrends. I'd look for moves below that for shorts.
Comment:
So what is stopping me from really going into a downward move, is a lower timeframe has be just not fully committed yet. The 5m, which oddly enough led us lower, has both uptrends and downtrend signals on upward movements. I feel like at LEAST one of these needs to come in as a lower movement, even if it is the uptrend signal, which hit last night at 3963.
I keep scalping low points to just get an uptrend signal on the 5m, but when it fails I take profit and repeat the process. Once the Uptrend happens, it'll have a short upward movement depending on if it can close above 3963, and then I will probably just be done for the day unless we get a downward 5m signal that is in line with the 30m downtrend signal. Ultimately I can see us hitting a low to get a 1H downtrend signal since we bounced off the 1H Uptrend so hard, but I want this lower timeframe to fix itself first.
I keep scalping low points to just get an uptrend signal on the 5m, but when it fails I take profit and repeat the process. Once the Uptrend happens, it'll have a short upward movement depending on if it can close above 3963, and then I will probably just be done for the day unless we get a downward 5m signal that is in line with the 30m downtrend signal. Ultimately I can see us hitting a low to get a 1H downtrend signal since we bounced off the 1H Uptrend so hard, but I want this lower timeframe to fix itself first.
Comment:
We have tried signaling the 5m Uptrend mark but it failed each time. Hard for me to buy into going short until that uptrend mark happens, which opens the door for a new lower downtrend mark and then the 5m isn't all Upward signals.
Comment:
5m Uptrend hit at 3977. I actually tried to snag a short, but I must have clicked too late. At this point, if it came back up I'd be cautious. I may just go take a lunch break and come back at 13:30 EST or so. I'm up $2000 today, so I don't want to get greedy and make irrational decisions trying to snag that last $500 I need to call it a week if I want.
Comment:
In case anyone was wondering, I enjoyed my tropical cafe for lunch, haha.
Anyways, I'm not sure we get too much more out of today. We've got the setup for the 1-Hour to hit lower, and I could see that happening, but then we have a bit of an issue with the Uptrends showing higher highs and downtrends showing lower lows.
In trying to use the lower trends, we aren't really staying under the current 30m downward movement very well. We are staying under the 15m decently well, and the 5m is now in that awful higher high and lower low breakout also.
Aside from seeing us revisiting those lows of yesterday at about 3940, I don't know that I see a lot more price action, and as I'd said, I think we just have a whipsaw day here. I was expecting us to end slightly higher today, then lower tomorrow, but maybe those get flip flopped? I'll feel more committed to a direction once we at least get some downtrend on the 1-Hour.
Anyways, I'm not sure we get too much more out of today. We've got the setup for the 1-Hour to hit lower, and I could see that happening, but then we have a bit of an issue with the Uptrends showing higher highs and downtrends showing lower lows.
In trying to use the lower trends, we aren't really staying under the current 30m downward movement very well. We are staying under the 15m decently well, and the 5m is now in that awful higher high and lower low breakout also.
Aside from seeing us revisiting those lows of yesterday at about 3940, I don't know that I see a lot more price action, and as I'd said, I think we just have a whipsaw day here. I was expecting us to end slightly higher today, then lower tomorrow, but maybe those get flip flopped? I'll feel more committed to a direction once we at least get some downtrend on the 1-Hour.
Comment:
So I had wanted to grab the 5m Uptrend as a reversal and take it down. I would have likely jumped out at around 3955 to take profit though, as I feel the downward movement at that time was a bit unsustainable without a real meltdown, and I just don't think the meltdown is here yet. When I didn't get it, I called it for the day.
Interesting pull up at the very end. I had believed we'd end today a bit higher after a whipsaw, and then tomorrow lower, and that pull up set the stage for that. Nearly every short-term trend is showing reversals from the 30m on down.
I'd pay real close attention to Earnings in Google and Meta (Facebook) AMC tomorrow. Anything above 3967 to me is just a short to the downside unless trends change overnight. A push down 3951 is likely, just for it to come up and potentially close somewhere back in around 3967ish. If that happens, it'll recruit the 1H Uptrend into a reversal signal, which will then now include the 5m, 15m, 30m, and 1H.
If we don't take things down after that, I'd expect the 2H to begin to add itself into the reversal picture. Currently, it has a downtrend signal, but is still a higher low at the 3950 mark. The move upward to almost 3990 wasn't enough to turn it around quite yet, but I could see another push up that way doing just that, as the longer it stays in the downtrend the lower the uptrend signal can come.
I'll post an update tomorrow morning on the outlook, but currently I could see us sticking to a range of around 3980 to 3940 tomorrow.
Interesting pull up at the very end. I had believed we'd end today a bit higher after a whipsaw, and then tomorrow lower, and that pull up set the stage for that. Nearly every short-term trend is showing reversals from the 30m on down.
I'd pay real close attention to Earnings in Google and Meta (Facebook) AMC tomorrow. Anything above 3967 to me is just a short to the downside unless trends change overnight. A push down 3951 is likely, just for it to come up and potentially close somewhere back in around 3967ish. If that happens, it'll recruit the 1H Uptrend into a reversal signal, which will then now include the 5m, 15m, 30m, and 1H.
If we don't take things down after that, I'd expect the 2H to begin to add itself into the reversal picture. Currently, it has a downtrend signal, but is still a higher low at the 3950 mark. The move upward to almost 3990 wasn't enough to turn it around quite yet, but I could see another push up that way doing just that, as the longer it stays in the downtrend the lower the uptrend signal can come.
I'll post an update tomorrow morning on the outlook, but currently I could see us sticking to a range of around 3980 to 3940 tomorrow.
So, 30m Uptrend hit at about 3976. That 30m mark is going coming in as a reverse trend pattern, and I won't be trading above it, unless we can continue this push upward and get a 1-Hour Uptrend Signal.
That being said, as we continue above it, I'd look at anything that crosses below that 30m Uptrend mark, as a potential Short to the downside.
If it goes down, than I'd look at how it handles the 1-Hour Downtrend mark as see if that can bring it back up at all. Definitely going to be a watch and carefully consider day unless we get this 1-Hour Uptrend mark.