Trends maxed to upside; New Contract Trends; Overbought status
So I have some other catching up to do, but currently it appears the ESU contract is now here, and as I've said over the last few weeks, I felt that the ESM contract was clearly going to be an upward moving contract, and that any leg down would be over the next contract. I continue to comment that with the major price gains on major tech stocks, if investors don't sell these stocks they haven't capitalized on the movement up... so there needs to be a sell off to capitalize on profit.
Now that the next contract is here, because of the previous moves it is starting at 100 MFI overbought status on a weekly basis. So overall, while I'm not in bear mode, I see the next 3 months at least being relatively flat, with a leg down first before we decide if we come back up here or not. I think we will see the Fed monetary policy begin to hit the economy over the next 3 months, and additionally many major investment companies are likely to move away from active monitoring like they do most summers and retail investors could drive the prices down since there is a predominantly short position going into this summer period.
Trends into today (Only /ESU23 contract);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract)
30m - 4363 Uptrend (6/12/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend
Weekly - None
The Long Position;
Basically we can keep running the narrative that buy any minor dip. I'd say if things dip down to 4300 there would likely be a pullback up briefly, but I am trading with the expectation we need a leg down.
The Short Position;
Since we are maxed out to the uptrend, I see anything above 4363 as a entry point to the downside. I obviously believe this enough that I am actively short on this trade.
Economic Data;
Nothing today really. However, CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Wednesday, FOMC rate and statement is Wednesday, and jobs numbers on Thursday. Overall it should be an active week. I expect Powell it come across slightly hawkish to try and calm the market, since the massive jump in the market could ultimately undermine some of the monetary tightening they are attempting to do here.
My sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Now that the next contract is here, because of the previous moves it is starting at 100 MFI overbought status on a weekly basis. So overall, while I'm not in bear mode, I see the next 3 months at least being relatively flat, with a leg down first before we decide if we come back up here or not. I think we will see the Fed monetary policy begin to hit the economy over the next 3 months, and additionally many major investment companies are likely to move away from active monitoring like they do most summers and retail investors could drive the prices down since there is a predominantly short position going into this summer period.
Trends into today (Only /ESU23 contract);
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract)
30m - 4363 Uptrend (6/12/2023) Higher High
1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High
2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High
3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High
4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High
12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High
Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend
Weekly - None
The Long Position;
Basically we can keep running the narrative that buy any minor dip. I'd say if things dip down to 4300 there would likely be a pullback up briefly, but I am trading with the expectation we need a leg down.
The Short Position;
Since we are maxed out to the uptrend, I see anything above 4363 as a entry point to the downside. I obviously believe this enough that I am actively short on this trade.
Economic Data;
Nothing today really. However, CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Wednesday, FOMC rate and statement is Wednesday, and jobs numbers on Thursday. Overall it should be an active week. I expect Powell it come across slightly hawkish to try and calm the market, since the massive jump in the market could ultimately undermine some of the monetary tightening they are attempting to do here.
My sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Bearish/Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish
Long Term - Bullish/Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Comment:
Still holding onto this trade at the moment. It was up $500, but I really feel like we are reaching a top and at least need a technical retracement down from here. The FANG is nearly at the highs of end 2021 beginning 2022... which is just craaaazy. I can't imagine people not cashing in on these profits at some point here soon. To wait and hope for a small percentage higher while risking such profit would just be poor investing.