Recap of the Powell Testimony and Market Direction Analysis
Not sure how the video ended up so long, probably because of the rambling on the Powell Testimony and the impact on the market, but here we are.
The 4010 level stayed relevant so long that 4 trends in a row all landed on that mark even though they ended at different times. I wouldn't be surprised if we briefly revisit that level before we head further south.
The Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
With trends nearly maxed to the downside, I could see us having a bounce back. Additionally, we are around that 4000 level that has kept us range bound for 5 months now. Perhaps this time it acts as a support to surge us back up.
The Short Position;
The more likely option in my opinion. MACD Momentum has a weekly signal downward, the Daily Uptrend signal is fading, and the 2hr to 6hr trends were all lower lows, paving the way for more downward movement. Additionally, it was an above 2 million volume day, I don't think that sort of momentum just ends without a sideways day at least. I could see us continue to push downward back towards that 3913 level at least, even if there is a brief bounce back up to 4000-4010.
Economic Data;
More Powell Testimony. I went over some highlights of that in the video. Additionally, we have the JOLTs Job Data from January, which could surprise to the upside and cause a ruckus. The ADP Non Farm is also here shortly, and any surprise on that might also cause ripples in the market.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
The 4010 level stayed relevant so long that 4 trends in a row all landed on that mark even though they ended at different times. I wouldn't be surprised if we briefly revisit that level before we head further south.
The Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low
2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low
12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
The Long Position;
With trends nearly maxed to the downside, I could see us having a bounce back. Additionally, we are around that 4000 level that has kept us range bound for 5 months now. Perhaps this time it acts as a support to surge us back up.
The Short Position;
The more likely option in my opinion. MACD Momentum has a weekly signal downward, the Daily Uptrend signal is fading, and the 2hr to 6hr trends were all lower lows, paving the way for more downward movement. Additionally, it was an above 2 million volume day, I don't think that sort of momentum just ends without a sideways day at least. I could see us continue to push downward back towards that 3913 level at least, even if there is a brief bounce back up to 4000-4010.
Economic Data;
More Powell Testimony. I went over some highlights of that in the video. Additionally, we have the JOLTs Job Data from January, which could surprise to the upside and cause a ruckus. The ADP Non Farm is also here shortly, and any surprise on that might also cause ripples in the market.
My sentiment into today;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bearish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
Comment:
Here's an interesting data plot I've never done before, let's see how it pans out... I went back and did a average data plot from the last 6 sell signals and 6 buy signals of the MACD Momentum Chart. If average, they are as such;
6 Point Avg MACD Momentum Sell Point - 3993
6 Point Avg MACD Momentum Buy Point - 3867
So... the theory on this would be that we would go from 3993 (where we are now) to 3867 before we see our next buy move. Not going to trade on this data, as I've never tried it before, but... always trying out different theories, so I'll keep it on notice to see how it shows up.
6 Point Avg MACD Momentum Sell Point - 3993
6 Point Avg MACD Momentum Buy Point - 3867
So... the theory on this would be that we would go from 3993 (where we are now) to 3867 before we see our next buy move. Not going to trade on this data, as I've never tried it before, but... always trying out different theories, so I'll keep it on notice to see how it shows up.
Comment:
Call me crazy, but I just went long at 3976. Just looking to hold it for a brief movement back towards around 4000. If we don't begin to move up, I'll dump it and take a small profit or loss
Comment:
Well that worked out....... =)
Comment:
I cashed that out for $1050. Not the move I'd expected to make today, but overall the signs were there. Hope everyone else had a decent day as well
242,000 over the expected 200,000 from the previous 119,000