Trends: My Warnings Came True; My Next Warning - Take a Day Off
So I had warned against getting into the doom and gloom of a higher than anticipated CPI reading. I'd also stated I believed we were going to rally higher. Both came true. My suggestion to most, is that unless your trading strategy has a great way of reading this current market, is to step away now for a day, especially if you're up significantly for the week like I am.
I'm not updating the trends, but I'll summarize... shorter term trends look to possibly go higher, but longer-term trends are in a down.
I initially had shorted at 3680 yesterday, however that went higher and I decided to jump out the moment the market came back down to 3679. I will be taking the day off today, rewarding myself for good trades last week and also letting the market show whatever it wants after that crazy day yesterday.
I do believe that 3450 range was the bottom and anything past it won't be seen again. At this point I'd be surprised if we even hit down into below 3600, unless it is somewhere around 3570-3590ish at the most. The volume and price action of yesterday showed me that we are likely near the bottom of this bear market, if we didn't just hit it altogether.
That said, any rally is at risk from increasing geopolitical issues and a growing risk of entering a full recession from the technical recession we are already in.
Earnings;
All eyes will be on Bank Earnings mostly today. From the quick glance I took as I write this, it sounds like they beat Estimates (Walmart Effect) but most were down in revenue.
Economic Data;
We have retail sales data today that impact how everyone views our current spending and economic growth potential.
If you do decide to trade, best wishes and remember your risk management plan
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term ; Full Neutral (Hence why I'm taking the day off)
Short Term ; Bearish Neutral
Medium Term ; Bullish
Long Term ; Bearish Neutral
I'm not updating the trends, but I'll summarize... shorter term trends look to possibly go higher, but longer-term trends are in a down.
I initially had shorted at 3680 yesterday, however that went higher and I decided to jump out the moment the market came back down to 3679. I will be taking the day off today, rewarding myself for good trades last week and also letting the market show whatever it wants after that crazy day yesterday.
I do believe that 3450 range was the bottom and anything past it won't be seen again. At this point I'd be surprised if we even hit down into below 3600, unless it is somewhere around 3570-3590ish at the most. The volume and price action of yesterday showed me that we are likely near the bottom of this bear market, if we didn't just hit it altogether.
That said, any rally is at risk from increasing geopolitical issues and a growing risk of entering a full recession from the technical recession we are already in.
Earnings;
All eyes will be on Bank Earnings mostly today. From the quick glance I took as I write this, it sounds like they beat Estimates (Walmart Effect) but most were down in revenue.
Economic Data;
We have retail sales data today that impact how everyone views our current spending and economic growth potential.
If you do decide to trade, best wishes and remember your risk management plan
My Sentiment;
Shorter Term ; Full Neutral (Hence why I'm taking the day off)
Short Term ; Bearish Neutral
Medium Term ; Bullish
Long Term ; Bearish Neutral
Comment:
While I'm tempted to go long at the close today at 3600, I think I'll wait until I see the open on Sunday evening or let things simmer around and decide Monday morning.
Comment:
Well unless you'd decided to short, I hope you took the advice. I do believe that the bottom of this bear market is beginning to form. I also think we begin to form a bear market rally here during the Earnings season.
Things might be a bit stable"ish" until at least Thursday when Jobless comes out. The only issue prior to that will be the front runners on Earnings setting a precedent for their respective industries.
Things might be a bit stable"ish" until at least Thursday when Jobless comes out. The only issue prior to that will be the front runners on Earnings setting a precedent for their respective industries.
I still feel burned from back in July so I don't feel like trading these bizarre counter trend movements, but each one would have worked out fairly well.