In the Prior Daily ES Chart, the Trend is clear.
Confidence remains dour on balance.
The FED's Waller Mester and Bullard were aggressive in their Communiques.
Nothing Positive there, other than more stirring of the murky waters.
Fed Funds Futures are quite clear and the FInancial MEdia ran with it this week.
Looking for a FED Pivot?
Bullard negated that.
Enuf about rates, the 2 / 3 / 5 tells us about all we need to know. The Inversions
compound and remain extremely clear - the depression is advancing.
Credit Risk continues to expand.
________________________________________________________________________
Q2 EPS will be an unmitigated horror show IMHO.
Of all the distractions present, this is the one to be avoided... any Meme will do.
And there is no shortage on the Inflation Front, it's XMAS in JULY, get out there and
load up Prime Day buyers, and take advantage of all the "discounts" ever present.
_________________________________________________________________________
The Struggle is on - Inflation forwards vs. the Real Economy in EPS terms.
E - Very Poor
P - Far too High
S - Far too many to be absorbed
In Sum, Wally World will perform their absolute best antics ahead of what will be a
very clear sign Commerce... had ground to a halt.
I am taking an outsized PUt position into EPS/FOMC and holding on for what should be
a rather negative series of disappointments. October through January 2023 for a great
many opportunities ahead, including the VIX at PO's below.
Wally will get their fill into the Trend, Far Lower.
6/6 Quarters of declining GDP will be an obvious result and with it, "P" gets a very large
reduction of 10 to 13% dead ahead.
Confidence remains dour on balance.
The FED's Waller Mester and Bullard were aggressive in their Communiques.
Nothing Positive there, other than more stirring of the murky waters.
Fed Funds Futures are quite clear and the FInancial MEdia ran with it this week.
Looking for a FED Pivot?
Bullard negated that.
Enuf about rates, the 2 / 3 / 5 tells us about all we need to know. The Inversions
compound and remain extremely clear - the depression is advancing.
Credit Risk continues to expand.
________________________________________________________________________
Q2 EPS will be an unmitigated horror show IMHO.
Of all the distractions present, this is the one to be avoided... any Meme will do.
And there is no shortage on the Inflation Front, it's XMAS in JULY, get out there and
load up Prime Day buyers, and take advantage of all the "discounts" ever present.
_________________________________________________________________________
The Struggle is on - Inflation forwards vs. the Real Economy in EPS terms.
E - Very Poor
P - Far too High
S - Far too many to be absorbed
In Sum, Wally World will perform their absolute best antics ahead of what will be a
very clear sign Commerce... had ground to a halt.
I am taking an outsized PUt position into EPS/FOMC and holding on for what should be
a rather negative series of disappointments. October through January 2023 for a great
many opportunities ahead, including the VIX at PO's below.
Wally will get their fill into the Trend, Far Lower.
6/6 Quarters of declining GDP will be an obvious result and with it, "P" gets a very large
reduction of 10 to 13% dead ahead.