I'm going to keep it short and sweet, since I'm still a bit tilted at yesterday's movement knocking me and then going down. I've seen some brief up and down, but that was excessive to say the least.
For those who didn't follow, I had been sitting in a downtrend trade at the previous 4-Hour Uptrend / 1-Hour Downtrend at 3861. After it had gone down as expected, I knew the CPI data could sends things plummeted, but there was a chance it would send things higher, so I had a profit stop loss.
The move upward happened so quickly that it went from 3831ish, to suddenly being at 3870 with very little movement in between. That didn't just trigger my stop loss I'd set at 3856, it even triggered it for a loss at 3868 or so, then before I could react, of course price moved correctly, and it went down, losing out in a $5000 move as I would have exited at 9am when things didn't move anywhere and reevaluated.
I can tell you I was so upset, that I immediately shorted wherever the market was at, and realized that was stupid, and just exited that trade immediately. I then walked away for a while. Trading when emotional, especially when upset, is just a no go, and I'd recommend if you're "feeling" some type of way, don't trade. I learned that lesson years ago.
Thinking back, I recognize that I should have closed my short at the EOD prior. While I would have risked missing out on a potential overnight plummet, I could have taken the profit and evaluated how the CPI data turned out. Again, I expected volatility, just perhaps not the upward moves overnight and then that insane surge upward before crashing.
That being said, I was able to relax, drink some coffee, and look for a reasonable entry point. So, while I was watching the movements the last two days, I knew the 4-Hour trend was signaling around 3810. Due to that movement, it signaled and closed at 3769. We then had the pullback and the market then continued to downtrend for the 6-Hour at 3786. I can't remember a time when I had a lower timeframe trend below a higher timeframe trend, so I've manually adjusted the 4-Hour to 3810. On my personal chart, I also have a ghost line there at 3769, in case it becomes relevant, but at this point my main focus is on the 12-Hour Downtrend to appear.
Once it does, I will likely take profit and evaluate. I have to look at it as my take profit SHOULD have been from 3860, so I'll just have to accept a lower take profit. I may initially take profit if it comes to that point, and then evaluate if I'm following it further down.
I've learned that unless it is a significant, multi hundred point move like we've seen the last few crashes, rarely can all the trends go the same direction for very long.
Keep an eye on Earnings Reports, especially front reporting companies for their respective sectors. An example, is when Walmart struggled, Target immediately bombed afterwards. We saw it with Facebook and other social media apps also.
To recap the trends are;
Uptrend; 12-Hour
Downtrend; EVERYTHING else
My bearish sentiment remains, and as I've stated before, I think we bottom around 3500 +\- 50 points, PRIOR to any recession. If we hit a recession, I think we fall to the pandemic low. If that happens, I wouldn't expect a massive upward surge. I only base that off history, and we've never "surged" out of a recession. We grow properly from there.
Trade safely
For those who didn't follow, I had been sitting in a downtrend trade at the previous 4-Hour Uptrend / 1-Hour Downtrend at 3861. After it had gone down as expected, I knew the CPI data could sends things plummeted, but there was a chance it would send things higher, so I had a profit stop loss.
The move upward happened so quickly that it went from 3831ish, to suddenly being at 3870 with very little movement in between. That didn't just trigger my stop loss I'd set at 3856, it even triggered it for a loss at 3868 or so, then before I could react, of course price moved correctly, and it went down, losing out in a $5000 move as I would have exited at 9am when things didn't move anywhere and reevaluated.
I can tell you I was so upset, that I immediately shorted wherever the market was at, and realized that was stupid, and just exited that trade immediately. I then walked away for a while. Trading when emotional, especially when upset, is just a no go, and I'd recommend if you're "feeling" some type of way, don't trade. I learned that lesson years ago.
Thinking back, I recognize that I should have closed my short at the EOD prior. While I would have risked missing out on a potential overnight plummet, I could have taken the profit and evaluated how the CPI data turned out. Again, I expected volatility, just perhaps not the upward moves overnight and then that insane surge upward before crashing.
That being said, I was able to relax, drink some coffee, and look for a reasonable entry point. So, while I was watching the movements the last two days, I knew the 4-Hour trend was signaling around 3810. Due to that movement, it signaled and closed at 3769. We then had the pullback and the market then continued to downtrend for the 6-Hour at 3786. I can't remember a time when I had a lower timeframe trend below a higher timeframe trend, so I've manually adjusted the 4-Hour to 3810. On my personal chart, I also have a ghost line there at 3769, in case it becomes relevant, but at this point my main focus is on the 12-Hour Downtrend to appear.
Once it does, I will likely take profit and evaluate. I have to look at it as my take profit SHOULD have been from 3860, so I'll just have to accept a lower take profit. I may initially take profit if it comes to that point, and then evaluate if I'm following it further down.
I've learned that unless it is a significant, multi hundred point move like we've seen the last few crashes, rarely can all the trends go the same direction for very long.
Keep an eye on Earnings Reports, especially front reporting companies for their respective sectors. An example, is when Walmart struggled, Target immediately bombed afterwards. We saw it with Facebook and other social media apps also.
To recap the trends are;
Uptrend; 12-Hour
Downtrend; EVERYTHING else
My bearish sentiment remains, and as I've stated before, I think we bottom around 3500 +\- 50 points, PRIOR to any recession. If we hit a recession, I think we fall to the pandemic low. If that happens, I wouldn't expect a massive upward surge. I only base that off history, and we've never "surged" out of a recession. We grow properly from there.
Trade safely
Comment:
In case you missed it, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley both missed big on Earnings. Like real big. That will likely be the catalyst that draws us to new lows. As I'd said before, there was significant concern that Forecasters were hiding updated data. This will spill over for the rest of Earnings season to a much risk off nature.
Comment:
12-Hour is beginning to trigger around 3731. It doesn't settle until 13:00 EST