7/26/2022 Trends; Short Term Down up against Longterm Up
So, not much changed overnight. Going to be an interesting run coming up here in terms of trading by trends.
On the Downside;
We have lots of short opportunities. Even any upward movement at this point will just be considered an entry point downward.
The 1H is in a downtrend, but if it pushed up to get an uptrend, it'll be a lower high uptrend unless we have some really hard push upwards past 3986 without triggering the uptrend sooner. The last two downtrends were a lower low as well, so anything past that 3950ish level is clear sailing initially.
The 30m is sitting in a similar boat. It currently is in a lower low downtrends, and even if it signals an uptrend, unless it has a surge above 3976 to prior to surging the uptrend signal, it'll be a lower high uptrend signal and just an entry point.
Even on the micro level below that, the 5m and 15m have both lower high uptrends and lower low downtrends. So on our intraday trading, we have nothing stopping us from pushing lower.
On the Uptrends;
So each trend past the 1-Hour will still be attempting to hold off a drop. The 2-Hour is in a lower high uptrend at that 3950, but we didn't recover when we hit that, so I'm not sure how much longer it can hold out.
When the 3-Hour Downtrend triggers, which is likely to be soon if we go down, will be a lower high downtrend also.
Next we have the 6-Hour, with the uptrend level to begin with potentially stopping us from dropping, and even if a downtrend triggers, it'll be a higher low downtrend.
Same up with the 4-Hour. I assume the 4-Hour will trigger before we fall back to the 4-Hour trend level, but the downtrend will be a higher low.
The breakdown;
I'm sticking by my call yesterday, in that I'm expecting us to go up to a 1-Hour uptrend today, snag it, and come back down to around 3950 until the close, with some whipsaw in between. So Whipsaw with more downside than up. I could see us snagging that uptrend at around 0 on the day, or just higher. I don't know that I will want to try and catch any of that upward movement unless we stay flat for a bit here. On the downside I'll be looking to catch any upward movement back down, and anything past 3950 I'll be watching to go short.
Economic Data;
Home Sales and Consumer Confidence come out at 10:00 EST. Be prepared for that to cause some doom or gloom emotional reaction. Also, remember we seem to be in this bad news is good news, but sometimes bad news, but good news is always bad news, except when it's good news mentality. So I wouldn't try to predict price action based on the results.
Earnings;
HUGE Day of Earnings Reports
Tons of the smaller cap companies in the S&P report today.
In the BTO of larger companies, we have Coca Cola, McDonalds, Raytheon, and UPS.
AMC well... lots of big tech report. Microsoft, Google (A & B), and Texas Instruments.
Then also Visa comes out AMC as well.
My advice, with lots of potential downside, it almost seems TOO obvious we should drop today. I mean, trade into it, but also be careful that institutional money doesn't come in and squeeze everyone upward to make you take losses. If you do snag downward movements, don't forget to think about what your take profit is. I would get out your Risk Management portion of your trading strategy and read your rules. If you don't have your rules printed out, you should work on that today and sit out of this market. Just my advice.
Look for the downward momentum, and trade safely!
On the Downside;
We have lots of short opportunities. Even any upward movement at this point will just be considered an entry point downward.
The 1H is in a downtrend, but if it pushed up to get an uptrend, it'll be a lower high uptrend unless we have some really hard push upwards past 3986 without triggering the uptrend sooner. The last two downtrends were a lower low as well, so anything past that 3950ish level is clear sailing initially.
The 30m is sitting in a similar boat. It currently is in a lower low downtrends, and even if it signals an uptrend, unless it has a surge above 3976 to prior to surging the uptrend signal, it'll be a lower high uptrend signal and just an entry point.
Even on the micro level below that, the 5m and 15m have both lower high uptrends and lower low downtrends. So on our intraday trading, we have nothing stopping us from pushing lower.
On the Uptrends;
So each trend past the 1-Hour will still be attempting to hold off a drop. The 2-Hour is in a lower high uptrend at that 3950, but we didn't recover when we hit that, so I'm not sure how much longer it can hold out.
When the 3-Hour Downtrend triggers, which is likely to be soon if we go down, will be a lower high downtrend also.
Next we have the 6-Hour, with the uptrend level to begin with potentially stopping us from dropping, and even if a downtrend triggers, it'll be a higher low downtrend.
Same up with the 4-Hour. I assume the 4-Hour will trigger before we fall back to the 4-Hour trend level, but the downtrend will be a higher low.
The breakdown;
I'm sticking by my call yesterday, in that I'm expecting us to go up to a 1-Hour uptrend today, snag it, and come back down to around 3950 until the close, with some whipsaw in between. So Whipsaw with more downside than up. I could see us snagging that uptrend at around 0 on the day, or just higher. I don't know that I will want to try and catch any of that upward movement unless we stay flat for a bit here. On the downside I'll be looking to catch any upward movement back down, and anything past 3950 I'll be watching to go short.
Economic Data;
Home Sales and Consumer Confidence come out at 10:00 EST. Be prepared for that to cause some doom or gloom emotional reaction. Also, remember we seem to be in this bad news is good news, but sometimes bad news, but good news is always bad news, except when it's good news mentality. So I wouldn't try to predict price action based on the results.
Earnings;
HUGE Day of Earnings Reports
Tons of the smaller cap companies in the S&P report today.
In the BTO of larger companies, we have Coca Cola, McDonalds, Raytheon, and UPS.
AMC well... lots of big tech report. Microsoft, Google (A & B), and Texas Instruments.
Then also Visa comes out AMC as well.
My advice, with lots of potential downside, it almost seems TOO obvious we should drop today. I mean, trade into it, but also be careful that institutional money doesn't come in and squeeze everyone upward to make you take losses. If you do snag downward movements, don't forget to think about what your take profit is. I would get out your Risk Management portion of your trading strategy and read your rules. If you don't have your rules printed out, you should work on that today and sit out of this market. Just my advice.
Look for the downward momentum, and trade safely!
Comment:
McDonald's Reported while I was writing that up. They beat Earnings Estimates. No surprise considering their business model has always been to sell into poverty. The more people can't afford to go out to eat, the more they will fall onto McDonald's as a cheap alternative to cooking. Didn't know that was their business model? Research how local area income and the number of McDonald's nearby coincide. They have very few restaurants in wealthy neighborhoods, lots of poverty-stricken places, and keep a decent amount in middle class spots.
Comment:
Looks like UPS also beat estimates on Earnings and Revenue.
Comment:
Coca Cola also beat estimates. Remember, that is only half the battle as these companies beat estimates. Future guidance tends to drive price also. I haven't read into their future guidance, and being the number of companies reporting, I may not have time today. These three morning companies could be what pushes us up. I did notice that Logitech had to lower future forecasts and missed Earnings. Not the biggest company, but could cause concern for those holding Microsoft.
Comment:
Raytheon Beat Estimates also. I did read in the article that they put some caution going forward on profits due to inflation and how they are preparing for that.
Comment:
I didn't mark it on the graph, but just FYI, the Daily Downtrend descending line is up above us at 4032 right now.
Comment:
Just to add... I realize I sort of left that 12-Hour out... so while the 2-Hour to 6-Hour have those uptrends, we are sitting in a huge push above the 12-Hour lower high uptrend signal at 3926 that had both lower low downtrend signals and lower high uptrend signals. I do NOT see us escaping a push lower to capture that 12-Hour Downtrend signal, and still see this overall push right now as a bear market rally, that is pretending an upside.
I mean, in all my trend trading, that sort of price reversal doesn't just happen. While the 3600 level we saw COULD be our lows, I'd like to see us go down and show something on the 12-Hour and above of any higher low or higher high trend before we can trust an upward push.
I mean, in all my trend trading, that sort of price reversal doesn't just happen. While the 3600 level we saw COULD be our lows, I'd like to see us go down and show something on the 12-Hour and above of any higher low or higher high trend before we can trust an upward push.
Comment:
I think I'll go back and take a nap. Not sure I want to carry anything into the opening bell in 45 minutes. I wanna see things bounce up past 3963 if I was to look at an entry to the downside.
Again, unless some micro trends change, I can't see me wanting to go long at this point. I have an alert setup for the 3963 going up and 3949 going down to come back and watch, but otherwise, I'll be back about 10 prior to the bell opening.
Again, unless some micro trends change, I can't see me wanting to go long at this point. I have an alert setup for the 3963 going up and 3949 going down to come back and watch, but otherwise, I'll be back about 10 prior to the bell opening.
Comment:
If it wasn't so close to the opening bell, I would have bought short at 3951. I just don't feel it is worth it knowing how much price movement can help between 9:30 and 9:45 EST
Comment:
6-Hour Uptrend line is here at 3938. I think this is where we need that 1-Hour Uptrend lower high to push through.
Comment:
Consumer Confidence lower than estimates. It was an expected decline from 98.4 to 97.2, but declined 98.4 to 95.7
Home Sales also lower than estimates. Was expected to increase from 642,000 to 660,000, but it declined from 642,000 to 590,000.
Again, good news in terms of slowing the economy to fight inflation, bad news in terms of a possible inflation. Which is more impacting right now? Only the trends will know.
Home Sales also lower than estimates. Was expected to increase from 642,000 to 660,000, but it declined from 642,000 to 590,000.
Again, good news in terms of slowing the economy to fight inflation, bad news in terms of a possible inflation. Which is more impacting right now? Only the trends will know.
Trade active:
Took my first short at 3950. Not sure it is going to bag me much. I'll hold it but if it comes back above 3945 I'll probably take profit.
Trade closed manually:
Sold it out at 3937 for profit. $650... not bad. I just don't think we can keep the downward momentum just yet.
Comment:
Mmm... I'll admit I think I called the rebound up incorrectly. I thought for sure we'd ping back to zero (3970) before coming down here. Days not over, but I may have been incorrect for sure. Oh well, I made my daily. I feel like if this was the meltdown we've all been waiting for it would have more volume, so I think I'll just sit out unless we at least get back up to 3950 or so.
Comment:
There is our 3-Hour Downtrend signal hitting at 3925. Has to hold out until 13:00 EST. It'll be a higher low downtrend, so I'd expect some bounce back afterwards.
Comment:
The 4 Hour is also now signaling a downtrend. Also a higher low downtrend signal. It also ends at 13:00 EST. Currently I expect a pullback around 13:00, if even just briefly.
Comment:
Neither the 3-Hour nor the 4-Hour held... Telling ya, we need that 1-Hour Lower High Uptrend signal.
Comment:
Took a scalp at 3927 to go up. I am only going to hold it up to about 3927. I still think we get back up to 3950 today. While we didn't have the whipsaw up and down, I just don't know that I see us holding this low until at least tomorrow. I still want to see a lower high uptrend of something besides the 30m to believe we've got the last upward movement before some down.
Trade closed manually:
Well that happened quicker than expected.
Comment:
Hmm, gotta tell ya, I didn't realize there would be this crazy pullback from 3937. I thought for sure I had bailed early for small profit (like usual) and we were going to finally head up for the day.
Trade active:
I took another scalp upward at 3918. In spite of all the macro downtrends, I think we end up back up at around 3950, at least overnight. We have to trade under lower highs and then will see some pull back from lower lows. We only have the lower low of the 1-Hour, I want to see the Higher Low of the 1-Hour Uptrend.
I could see it coming late in the day today, overnight, or potentially tomorrow. Once that hits, I'm all bearish, but I'm mixed until I see that symbol.
I could see it coming late in the day today, overnight, or potentially tomorrow. Once that hits, I'm all bearish, but I'm mixed until I see that symbol.
Comment:
Google is the lowest price the stock has been in over a year. Dump before the plummet, or discount buy? I have no idea. I trade Futures, I don't trade Stocks. Seems like a good risk management move to get into it though, right? Someone who trades stocks long-term want to comment on why you wouldn't want to look to get in at this point? Unless we hit a recession, do we really hit that much lower?
Trade closed manually:
So in seeing that Google and Microsoft missed Earnings, I sissied out on my trade and sold it for profit at 3935. I do still think we are heading up to 3950, but I'd made more money than holding to that price target, so I figured screw it, let's just take some more cash since it had been mostly slower for me today.
I'll be looking for that 1-Hour Uptrend Signal. If it hits, I'll likely be looking to get into a short position.
I'll be looking for that 1-Hour Uptrend Signal. If it hits, I'll likely be looking to get into a short position.
Comment:
Knew it. Let's go snag that 1-Hour Uptrend mark. Earlier than expected, but here we are.
